Originally Posted by S2krazy03
Ive noticed that it seems like probably 80% (just a wild guess, not actually counting them) of the dealer Ace up cards that happen on the first hand are blackjacks. Is there any math to go with this?
First start of the deck, dealer has an Ace up, do YOU take insurance? Im guessing a lot of us have min bets up at this point anyways (minus STers) so curious as to peoples thoughts about the subject. I feel like I might just start taking insurance on first hand dealer Ace ups because it seems to happen so much, even if the count doesnt warrant for it.
Plus I figured I would pop this question since the thread before this, is about no one posting voodoo strats
There is no math to backup your 80% observation. It may feel that way, but you're simply running unlucky. Over time, everyone at the table (including the dealer) will get blackjack exactly the percentage of the time that they are supposed to. The math will bear itself out.
Off the top of the deck, not knowing others' cards, the odds of a dealer having a 10 value card under their Ace are exactly 4/13 or 30.7%. The house edge on every dollar you bet on insurance varies slightly with the number of decks, but is approximately 7.4%, making it one of the worst bets in the entire casino. It's a bad bet unless the count reflects that you will have an edge on it, or you have information via other methods (shuffle tracking, hole carding, etc.). Unless, of course, the dealer is giving you the evil eye, and it's a full moon