Blackjack and Card Counting Forums - BlackjackInfo.com The insurance puzzle
 Register FAQ Members List Social Groups Calendar Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

#1
November 7th, 2011, 07:28 PM
 flyingwind Senior Member Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 247
The insurance puzzle

Anyone want insurance?

The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ?
4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

What is the IC of #3?
What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
__________________
Just another insignificant salamander trying to evolve.
#2
November 7th, 2011, 09:52 PM
 AussiePlayer Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 144

Could #3 be the Victor Insurance Paramter?
#3
November 8th, 2011, 05:29 AM
 tthree Banned Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,148

Quote:
 Originally Posted by flyingwind Anyone want insurance? The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want? 1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76 2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85 3. "Perfect" insurance count, IC = ? 4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0 What is the IC of #3? What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4? How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?
That's Ten value cards -9 all other cards +4. IC of 1.0 or perfect. Take insurance at TC +16 if I remember right.
#4
November 8th, 2011, 07:14 AM
 neversplit5s Member Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 30

Here's an even simpler "perfect insurance count":

Tens are -2; everything else is +1.
IRC = -4 multiplied by the number of decks
Insure when the count is positive; don't when it's negative (at zero it's break-even)
#5
November 10th, 2011, 07:26 PM
 Mersenne Twister Member Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 9

I found this somewhere.

"true counted" unbalanced insurance count,
IRC(initial running count) = -4*(number of decks)
count tag for non-tens are +1
count tag for tens are -2

when 6 deck, total 312 cards.
C : number of cards dealt
N: number of non-ten cards dealt
T: number of ten cards dealt
number of cards in shoe = 312-C
number of decks in shoe = (312-C)/52
RC = -24+N-2T
N+T = C
probability of insurance win = P

after some calc,
TC=52*(-24+C-3T)/(312-C)
then (52+TC)/156=
by computation,
=(96-T)/(312-C)
this is equal to density of ten cards in shoe =P

Kelly optimal insurance bet = BR*(3P-1)/2=
by computation,
=BR*TC/104
#6
November 10th, 2011, 08:34 PM
 NAP Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Midwest Posts: 60

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister I found this somewhere.
Like the post immediately before yours?
#7
November 10th, 2011, 10:07 PM
 Mersenne Twister Member Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 9

Quote:
 Originally Posted by NAP Like the post immediately before yours?
My interest in that insurance counting system is,
simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
(in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for
betting and playing, and that insurance count system for

Someone can sim?
#8
November 16th, 2011, 07:49 PM
 bejammin075 Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 27

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister My interest in that insurance counting system is, simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is, (in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves...) for betting and playing, and that insurance count system for determining insurance buying amount. Someone can sim?
You'd have to be counting with two different sets of card tags. You gonna keep track of all that? Like 8 and 9 will be neutral with your Hi-Lo, but you'll count them as +1 with your insurance count? Good luck!
#9
November 17th, 2011, 06:43 AM
 Mersenne Twister Member Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 9

How about 2-man-team at same table?
#10
November 17th, 2011, 10:17 AM
 NAP Member Join Date: Aug 2011 Location: Midwest Posts: 60

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mersenne Twister How about 2-man-team at same table?
Now you're talking.

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Forums     General     Skilled Play - Card Counting, Advanced Strategies, Game Variations, Theory and Math     Blackjack - Online Casinos     Site Announcements and Administrative Issues Geographic Areas     Las Vegas     Western USA     Midwest USA     Southern USA     Eastern USA     Outside of USA Miscellaneous     Blackjack - CardCounter.com archives

All times are GMT -7. The time now is 12:39 PM.