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#1
November 20th, 2011, 08:52 AM
 Ace High Member Join Date: Nov 2011 Location: Minneapolis Posts: 6
Hit or stay on 16

What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace?
What percent will you win or push by hitting it?

What percent will you win or push by not hitting it?

Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?
#2
November 20th, 2011, 09:27 AM
 iCountNTrack Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 346

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ace High What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace? What percent will you win or push by hitting it? What percent will you win or push by not hitting it? Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?
There ya go, i only posted the single deck values and S17, but you can get them for any number of cards

Code:
```///////1 deck, S17//////////
********************************************
player's Hand  10,6
dealer's upCard  7

player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.741662210131
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.258337789869
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.483324420261 ± 0.875441320009

player's probabilities for doubling
p_-2 = 0.657943433709
p_0 = 0.060306641789
p_+2= 0.281749924502
EV for doubling= -0.752387018413 ± 1.78680922523

player's probabilities for hitting
p_-1 = 0.657943433709
p_0 = 0.060306641789
p_+1= 0.281749924502
EV for hitting= -0.376193509207 ± 0.893404612615

************************************************

player's Hand  10,6
dealer's upCard  8

player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.76350326193
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.23649673807
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.527006523861 ± 0.849861237973

player's probabilities for doubling
p_-2 = 0.681168316615
p_0 = 0.0624859167129
p_+2= 0.256345766672
EV for doubling= -0.849645099887 ± 1.74016077918

player's probabilities for hitting
p_-1 = 0.681168316615
p_0 = 0.0624859167129
p_+1= 0.256345766672
EV for hitting= -0.424822549943 ± 0.870080389589

**********************************************

player's Hand  10,6
dealer's upCard  9

player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.769615756767
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.230384243233
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.539231513534 ± 0.842157571249

player's probabilities for doubling
p_-2 = 0.708318244314
p_0 = 0.0626698865513
p_+2= 0.229011869135
EV for doubling= -0.958612750359 ± 1.68237393247

player's probabilities for hitting
p_-1 = 0.708318244314
p_0 = 0.0626698865513
p_+1= 0.229011869135
EV for hitting= -0.47930637518 ± 0.841186966233

************************************************

player's Hand  10,6
dealer's upCard  10

player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.790130953287
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.209869046713
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.580261906574 ± 0.814429935464

player's probabilities for doubling
p_-2 = 0.662971292784
p_0 = 0.0579720249632
p_+2= 0.197424029191
EV for doubling= -1.01272718025 ± 1.58037894169

player's probabilities for hitting
p_-1 = 0.744603945845
p_0 = 0.0579720249632
p_+1= 0.197424029191
EV for hitting= -0.547179916654 ± 0.801637146

***********************************************

player's Hand  10,6
dealer's upCard  1

player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.879580663876
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.120419336124
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.759161327752 ± 0.650902510708

player's probabilities for doubling
p_-2 = 0.501690908078
p_0 = 0.0435060431592
p_+2= 0.148680599783
EV for doubling= -1.01214306557 ± 1.37228819686

player's probabilities for hitting
p_-1 = 0.807813357058
p_0 = 0.0435060431592
p_+1= 0.148680599783
EV for hitting= -0.659132757275 ± 0.722521947852```
10,6 vs 10 is a very close call especially for mulitple decks for examples for 6D, S17
Code:
```
player's Hand  10,6
dealer's upCard  10

player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.788304231586
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.211695768414
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.576608463173 ± 0.817020611856

player's probabilities for doubling
p_-2 = 0.680144821752
p_0 = 0.0551878170108
p_+2= 0.186997458325
EV for doubling= -1.06396462977 ± 1.55377549531

player's probabilities for hitting
p_-1 = 0.757814724664
p_0 = 0.0551878170108
p_+1= 0.186997458325
EV for hitting= -0.57081726634 ± 0.786752713016```
#3
November 20th, 2011, 02:00 PM
 tthree Banned Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,148

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ace High What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace? What percent will you win or push by hitting it? What percent will you win or push by not hitting it? Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?
You push 0% by not hitting. I hope that helps.
#4
November 20th, 2011, 02:17 PM
 zengrifter Banned Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: SoCal Posts: 7,409

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ace High What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace? What percent will you win or push by hitting it? What percent will you win or push by not hitting it? Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?
Its not even close. Just trust correct basic strategy, which we are guessing you do not know. zg
#5
November 21st, 2011, 12:11 PM
 Gamblor Executive Member Join Date: Mar 2011 Location: Casino backroom Posts: 693

Not the %, but more importantly the EV.

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix1.html
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#6
November 21st, 2011, 01:45 PM
 Coach R Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 46

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Ace High What is the mathematical statistic of hitting 16 against 7 through Ace? What percent will you win or push by hitting it? What percent will you win or push by not hitting it? Can anyone direct me to a site which publishes such stats?
Just follow the basic strategy charts. What makes the difference what the odds are of the dealer busting? it's all calculated in basic strat. If you stand on a 16, you're not betting that's enough to beat the dealer, you're betting the dealer will bust. Your odds of winning by standing on a 16 vs. a dealers 7, are the exact same odds of winning by standing on an 11 (5-6). You can't win unless the dealer bust.
Pushing is impossible by standing on 16
#7
November 21st, 2011, 01:48 PM
 BJLFS Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 331

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Coach R Just follow the basic strategy charts. What makes the difference what the odds are of the dealer busting? it's all calculated in basic strat. If you stand on a 16, you're not betting that's enough to beat the dealer, you're betting the dealer will bust. Your odds of winning by standing on a 16 vs. a dealers 7, are the exact same odds of winning by standing on an 11 (5-6). You can't win unless the dealer bust. Pushing is impossible by standing on 16
Also the reason you sometimes would hit on a 16 vs dealer 10 is so you will lose less, not to win.
#8
November 21st, 2011, 03:49 PM
 iCountNTrack Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 346

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Coach R Just follow the basic strategy charts. What makes the difference what the odds are of the dealer busting? it's all calculated in basic strat. If you stand on a 16, you're not betting that's enough to beat the dealer, you're betting the dealer will bust. Your odds of winning by standing on a 16 vs. a dealers 7, are the exact same odds of winning by standing on an 11 (5-6). You can't win unless the dealer bust. Pushing is impossible by standing on 16
I am sorry but this is not true, the odds are different

16 vs 6
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.589511449401
p_0 = 0
p_+1 = 0.410488550599
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.179022898802 ± 0.983844907343

***********************************************
11 vs 5
player's probabilities for standing
p_-1 = 0.566326835062
p_0 = 0
p_+1= 0.433673164938
p_+1.5 = 0
EV for standing= -0.132653670123 ± 0.991162450763

Basic strategy takes into account all possible combinations of playerHand/dealerHand , bust rate of the dealer is mythical figure used by scam system promoters
#9
November 21st, 2011, 04:23 PM
 tthree Banned Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 1,148

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iCountNTrack I am sorry but this is not true, the odds are different 16 vs 6 player's probabilities for standing p_-1 = 0.589511449401 p_0 = 0 p_+1 = 0.410488550599 p_+1.5 = 0 EV for standing= -0.179022898802 ± 0.983844907343 *********************************************** 11 vs 5 player's probabilities for standing p_-1 = 0.566326835062 p_0 = 0 p_+1= 0.433673164938 p_+1.5 = 0 EV for standing= -0.132653670123 ± 0.991162450763 Basic strategy takes into account all possible combinations of playerHand/dealerHand , bust rate of the dealer is mythical figure used by scam system promoters
I hope you realize that you did 11 and 16 v 5 and 6 respectively, not 7 as was the situation in question. Why didn't you site 11 and 16 against the same upcard?
#10
November 21st, 2011, 06:11 PM
 Coach R Member Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 46

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tthree I hope you realize that you did 11 and 16 v 5 and 6 respectively, not 7 as was the situation in question. Why didn't you site 11 and 16 against the same upcard?
I noticed that too, I think some people look way too deep for some kind of a quotion, or mathmatic formula to make something easy look complex. The dealer is either going to bust or not, that's why counters count, and understand the best times to do certain things. It doesn't matter if you have 4,7,9,12,or 16, you can't win if the dealer doesn't bust. There is a very long and complicated equation that explains why, and how gravity affects objects of all sizes, shapes, and weight. The bottom line is, if you throw a ball in the sky, it is going to drop.

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