question regarding advantage & expected value
- Thread starter sagefr0g
- Start date
aahhh k, then missing from my equation and source of my need to question (was wondering why the heck something didn't seem right) would be the number of plays involved times the average bet.
thank you Meistro
so now, i'll edit my equation in the original post, so as not to allow an erroneous equation to remain in the thread.
please someone correct me if my correction is wrong.
thank you Meistro
so now, i'll edit my equation in the original post, so as not to allow an erroneous equation to remain in the thread.
please someone correct me if my correction is wrong.
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Surely the meaning depends on the context in which the words are used.
In the most general terms, expected value just mean 'average'. Anything can have an expected value.
Sometimes advantage, expected value (EV) and edge are used as synonyms, all meaning the % return of a given game.
Other times expected value may refer to the expected monetary return of, say, an hour's play (or it could just as well refer to a single hand, played for a given stake). In that context, dividing by the total amount expected to be staked (initial bets) will get you back to the percentage return in the way you describe.
E.g.,
A BJ game has -0.5% expected value
One hour's play = 100 hands, average bet $10, means $1000 bet, and hence expected value = -$5.
(And working backwards, using your formula: -5/(10 *100) * 100 = -0.5%)
In the most general terms, expected value just mean 'average'. Anything can have an expected value.
Sometimes advantage, expected value (EV) and edge are used as synonyms, all meaning the % return of a given game.
Other times expected value may refer to the expected monetary return of, say, an hour's play (or it could just as well refer to a single hand, played for a given stake). In that context, dividing by the total amount expected to be staked (initial bets) will get you back to the percentage return in the way you describe.
E.g.,
A BJ game has -0.5% expected value
One hour's play = 100 hands, average bet $10, means $1000 bet, and hence expected value = -$5.
(And working backwards, using your formula: -5/(10 *100) * 100 = -0.5%)
@London Colin ,
exactly! sir, no joke as funny as it may seem, i spent the better part of yesterday after noon trying to piece that formula together. couldn't find the 'exact' formula in books i have, in spread sheets i have, or even googling. don't get me wrong, i know it must be out there some where, just couldn't find it, lol. i figured it would be in cvcx instructions perhaps, but i was to lazy to pull that cd out and look.
anyway, London, your statement, "Surely the meaning depends on the context in which the words are used.", really strikes home with me, it is exactly what was going through my mind, before and after Meistro was kind enough to post his version of the formula. i, was like, hmm, ok, ev is an average, average bet is an average, so that kind of makes average bet and ev, 'laser' or specific to some number of plays (or perhaps time played), sorta thing, but it took Meistro's formula to make me 'realize' or think that the # of plays should be in the equation. just me maybe, i found that so, even though the concept of advantage is perhaps not so much laser to averages as (at least in my mind) it is perfectly happy with the term 'action', sorta thing, lol. so synonyms, yes they are, thing is, they are also each a word, with i dunno, but i think maybe a 'integrity' of their own, sorta thing, lol.
anyway, your input on the matter is a relief to me, lol. thank you.
edit: all that said, the marriage between advantage, ev and wagers is a seemingly nebulous affair.
exactly! sir, no joke as funny as it may seem, i spent the better part of yesterday after noon trying to piece that formula together. couldn't find the 'exact' formula in books i have, in spread sheets i have, or even googling. don't get me wrong, i know it must be out there some where, just couldn't find it, lol. i figured it would be in cvcx instructions perhaps, but i was to lazy to pull that cd out and look.
anyway, London, your statement, "Surely the meaning depends on the context in which the words are used.", really strikes home with me, it is exactly what was going through my mind, before and after Meistro was kind enough to post his version of the formula. i, was like, hmm, ok, ev is an average, average bet is an average, so that kind of makes average bet and ev, 'laser' or specific to some number of plays (or perhaps time played), sorta thing, but it took Meistro's formula to make me 'realize' or think that the # of plays should be in the equation. just me maybe, i found that so, even though the concept of advantage is perhaps not so much laser to averages as (at least in my mind) it is perfectly happy with the term 'action', sorta thing, lol. so synonyms, yes they are, thing is, they are also each a word, with i dunno, but i think maybe a 'integrity' of their own, sorta thing, lol.
anyway, your input on the matter is a relief to me, lol. thank you.
edit: all that said, the marriage between advantage, ev and wagers is a seemingly nebulous affair.
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