Side Bet Bonanza

C

CapJack

Member
#1
#1
I was at an casino recently playing BJ that had what I think are some very beatable side bets. I would like to know mathematically if/when to make the side bets based on the True Count.

Table rules were:

6-Deck Shoe
Dealer Hits Soft 17
No Surrender
Split any 2 cards, Up to 4 hands (Split Aces once)
Double Down on any 2 cards

Here are the side bet offers based on your 2-card total and the payoffs:

2-card total of 17-20 pays 2-1
2-card total of 17-18 pays 6-1
2-card total of 18-19 pays 6-1
2-card total of 20-21 pays 5-1
2-card total of 17 pays 12-1
2-card total of 18 pays 14-1
2-card total of 19 pays 15-1
2-card total of 20 pays 8-1
2-card total of 21 pays 19-1
PAIR pays 12-1

Obviously the higher the True Count the better odds you have of being dealt a high 2-card total. When the count would get positive I was placing a small side bet on getting a 2-card total of 20 and/or a Blackjack, which pays 19-1. I happened to be dealt 4 blackjacks in a row while doing that which added to my bankroll nicely.

My question is, what would the True Count need to be for each of those sidebets to be profitable betting long term?

Thank you.
 
Red Green

Red Green

Member
#4
#4
Seems to me that if you’re using HiLo, you’re not counting 7,8 and 9 which are critical cards for most of those bets. 9 especially as it can figure in 18 (9,9) and 19. With your regular count you might find the edge on the 20 or 21 bets.

If memory serves (I stand to be corrected on that) you’d expect BJ about 22:1 but that’s without counting so for a BS player it’s a sucker bet. I would expect a higher frequency as the deck gets richer. To that end, an ace side count would be useful.
 
Red Green

Red Green

Member
#6
#6
Meistro said:
you get a blackjack about 1 in 21 hands so the true odds are 20:1 against
Click to expand...
Well that’s a lot easier of a stat to remember! So maybe not a carnival sucker bet, but still a -EV bet. Unless you’re counting, I suppose. I wonder if one of the number gurus has run a table to indicate the increase of frequency of BJ at specific counts?
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
well if u take say 4 fives out of a single deck then probability of getting a blackjack becomes

16/48 * 4/47 = .333 * .085

.0283 * 2
or 5.7% or 1 in 17.5 (16.5:1)
 
Red Green

Red Green

Member
#10
#10
Thanks Don, that is a great link. I'm going to save that...

Looking at the True Count Won/Lost table (using 6D H17), if I take a stab at it, it looks like at +3 BJ is about 5.5% or 17:1 which is the good side of the bet. That is if a non-math guy got it correct.
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#11
#11
at +2 it pays 19:1 and probability is 18:1

should have a 5.26% edge

at +3 it pays 19:1 and probability is 17.24:1

should have a 9.64% edge. But you don't want to bet more than .5% of your bankroll on this sidebet at this true count.
 
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