TC & Max Bet

[Sharpe]

On the positive side, you have that great pen. With that great pen "next time keep this quiet" comes more volatility which is a good thing. However, you have a problem with a 5K playing bank. You could quickly find out how fast it can go down. One way you could increase EV and cut down on risk is by forgetting about the play all approach. I do not think you realize what you are up against on seeing true count frequencies percentages, which I will display for you to see.

Example game of 5.0/6 Counts less than zero TC Freq.% 45.21, at a TC of 0 - 25.91%. Taken together 71.12% of all the hands you will be playing with a disadvantage. Now, in your case at a TC of +1 where you barely break even has a TC Freq of 10.74% again taken together you are now at 81.86% of the hands hurting you or spinning your wheels. Still, think the game is going to be easy. Find ways to avoid playing a play all game. Wong out, sit out some hands, a little Wonging in, be creative you are going to need it.

Where did you get these numbers? I believe you, would love to study the math. This info tells me ~20% of my hands will be played at an advantage which (in my opinion) makes getting to my max bet as quick as my ROR will allow; feel free to correct me on this.

My day job requires a lot of discipline which I think will translate well to blackjack. I plan to increase and/ or decrease bet size according to bank roll. One concern I have is when to add the additional $20k to my bankroll. I fear I’ll wait too long since I don’t have anyone critiquing my play.

 

[Sharpe]

You should watch this :

Thanks, John! Are you a member at blackjack apprenticeship? I haven’t pulled the trigger yet but have strongly considered it.

 

[JohnCrover]

Thanks, John! Are you a member at blackjack apprenticeship? I haven’t pulled the trigger yet but have strongly considered it.

I am not. I just learned about them relatively recently. All of the information you can find is on the internet for free. What they do is concentrate that information in one easy to access location and they give you a learning plan which helps you digest the information.
As to whether or not you should purchase the product that's entirely a personal choice. I believe they offer good information but if you keep asking the questions you're asking and learning like you are you probably don't need it.

 

[BoSox]

Where did you get these numbers?

I took those numbers from chapter 10 of Don S book that I mentioned earlier in the thread. I cannot emphasize enough how good this book is. Simply put it is the standard that all other BJ authors try to match but always fall short. All those questions you were asking you will find the answers in Don's book.

 

[Sharpe]

I took those numbers from chapter 10 of Don S book that I mentioned earlier in the thread. I cannot emphasize enough how good this book is. Simply put it is the standard that all other BJ authors try to match but always fall short. All those questions you were asking you will find the answers in Don's book.

Fair enough.. I will get the book now!

 

[BoSox]

Where did you get these numbers? I believe you, would love to study the math. This info tells me ~20% of my hands will be played at an advantage which (in my opinion) makes getting to my max bet as quick as my ROR will allow; feel free to correct me on this.

In post #1 you wrote:

"My local casino rules are not the greatest but not the worst. 3:2, 6D, H17, DS, DA, split aces 1x, RS4, 80-90% pen depending on the dealer. I plan to play all and spread between $10 - $80 or $10 - 2 x 40... You have to double table minimum to play two hands. Table minimum is $10.

My question is at what true count should you get your MAX bet out? I've seen between TC3 & TC5. Here's a quick reference of what I had in mind and wanted to know your thoughts based on the game I mentioned above.

TC <= 1: $10
TC 2: $30
TC 3: $50
TC 4+: $80; or 2 x 40

Not sure if I am getting my MAX bet out too quickly since I plan to start out very conservative while I gain more experience. My initial bankroll is $5k but once I have more experience, I plan to increase this to $20k or more depending on if/ what the initial bankroll amounts to.

Thanks in advance for any feedback!"

Speaking of that initial bankroll, do not expect it grow much at all "unless you have some good short-term positive fluctuation" with you using a play all approach and a two times $40 max bet, In my opinion forget that option. If you use that option, you are not giving that $5k much of a chance other than to break even. First of all the EV% edge I gave you of .18 or .19 at a true count of +1 is also contingent on you knowing and using the I- 18 which you do not currently know. Either way, I do not think you should play two hands, and this is a contradiction for me as I normally recommend players do so selectively.

Your playing bankroll concerns me, especially when you plan to play all. First, I hope you realize the more negative hands that you play the more risk you undertake and the bigger spread that will be required to make up the difference. Second, you do not have one of the best rules available to you, The all-important surrender option, which is extremely more valuable to a card counter, that enables the c c to slightly increase their upper tier bets without all of the added risk. Last reason is if you experience some negative flux chances are that you are not going to be able to down-size to a $5 table if you cannot find one. Take the cautious approach, and find ways to avoid some neg EV hands.

 

[Sharpe]

In post #1 you wrote:

Speaking of that initial bankroll, do not expect it grow much at all "unless you have some good short-term positive fluctuation" with you using a play all approach and a two times $40 max bet, In my opinion forget that option. If you use that option, you are not giving that $5k much of a chance other than to break even. First of all the EV% edge I gave you of .18 or .19 at a true count of +1 is also contingent on you knowing and using the I- 18 which you do not currently know. Either way, I do not think you should play two hands, and this is a contradiction for me as I normally recommend players do so selectively.

Your playing bankroll concerns me, especially when you plan to play all. First, I hope you realize the more negative hands that you play the more risk you undertake and the bigger spread that will be required to make up the difference. Second, you do not have one of the best rules available to you, The all-important surrender option, which is extremely more valuable to a card counter, that enables the c c to slightly increase their upper tier bets without all of the added risk. Last reason is if you experience some negative flux chances are that you are not going to be able to down-size to a $5 table if you cannot find one. Take the cautious approach, and find ways to avoid some neg EV hands.

Thanks, BoSox. This initial bankroll is really to gain experience in a live casino environment. I understand my ROR with this bankroll is higher than a lot of pro's would be willing to take. I believe once I am confident in my ability to make the correct play and the correct bet 100% of the time, then I will add to the bankroll and reduce my ROR.... which I admit, I don't know what that looks like at the moment although I'm sure I will have a much better understanding when that time comes.

One follow up question to your post, how do you determine an appropriate spread needed to beat a game? I haven't purchased CVCX or CVBJ yet and realize that would answer a lot of questions. Wasn't sure if you had any quick insight/ rule of thumb you follow with bet spreads. My approach was to spread little enough to avoid detection but I feel with red chipping, I can get away with a bigger spread. The one I referred to in my OP was something I pulled out of my @$$, to be honest.

 

[Sharpe]

Also, BoSox. Since this discussion started, I have started mastering the i18. Still working out some kinks but plan to implement when I finally do go to a casino. I will say I plan to implement the i16... basically all the deviations except splitting 10's. I've read, and heard splitting 10's is a sure way to get backed off and doesn't add a ton of EV.. Although I'm easily proved wrong at this point.

 

[xengrifter]

all the deviations except splitting 10's. I've read, and heard splitting 10's is a sure way to get backed off and doesn't add a ton of EV

Splitting tens at the right moment DOES add high EV in THAT moment!

 

[Sharpe]

Splitting tens at the right moment DOES add high EV in THAT moment!

Would THAT moment be the last hand, of the last shoe you intend on playing? Haha

 

[BoSox]

One follow up question to your post, how do you determine an appropriate spread needed to beat a game?

Personally, I use chapter ten in Don's book, there is just so much information " that is an understatement" and covers a wide variety of games that are simulated.

Also, BoSox. Since this discussion started, I have started mastering the i18. Still working out some kinks but plan to implement when I finally do go to a casino. I will say I plan to implement the i16... basically all the deviations except splitting 10's.

I like to play shoe games and I also avoid splitting tens, but I am not betting nickles either. Xengrifter is correct that it does add high EV at the right moment, but does draw unwanted attention. I also want to mention one play in the I 16 where some caution, especially with someone with a real bankroll consideration to think about, the ten vs ten double. Again in Don's book in chapter 13, Don describes the Catch 22 Indices, these are "Risk-Averse" approaches, and EV maximizing, which cuts down on risk by making a deviation at a stronger point rather than when you only meet the number. These risk-averse indices I believe could help your game.

 

[Sharpe]

Personally, I use chapter ten in Don's book, there is just so much information " that is an understatement" and covers a wide variety of games that are simulated.



I like to play shoe games and I also avoid splitting tens, but I am not betting nickles either. Xengrifter is correct that it does add high EV at the right moment, but does draw unwanted attention. I also want to mention one play in the I 16 where some caution, especially with someone with a real bankroll consideration to think about, the ten vs ten double. Again in Don's book in chapter 13, Don describes the Catch 22 Indices, these are "Risk-Averse" approaches, and EV maximizing, which cuts down on risk by making a deviation at a stronger point rather than when you only meet the number. These risk-averse indices I believe could help your game.

Good deal! I’m looking forward to reading Dons book. Heading to punta cana in less than a week so I will have plenty of time to read the book.

Thanks again!

 

[xengrifter]

Would THAT moment be the last hand, of the last shoe you intend on playing? Haha

Perhaps, but not necessarily.

 

[xengrifter]

Xengrifter is correct that it does add high EV at the right moment, but does draw unwanted attention.

Not "does" ... rather MIGHT draw unwanted attention.

 

[Ed Teller]

therefore your wager should be 0.50% of 5,000 dollars, which is $25. A

Well, not a bad "rule of thumb calculation", however it should be (.50% X 5,000)/variance. Suggest you use the last step.