Does This Work Or Am I Just Lucky

[Giovanni di Bernardone]

I enjoy blackjack, it is therapy for me. I am a numbers guy so I enjoy the premise of the game and probability basis, knowing exactly what I'll do in every hand but not knowing the outcome of each hand. It is social, engaging and interesting but not difficult, a perfect get-away period for me from a stressful life (work. family, etc). So my purpose in playing is stress relief, escape and to have fun, not necessarily to make lots of money. I have card counted for a period of time and can do it well but it robs me of why I play. Yes the money is nice, but I find to like going to work, and I don't need another job ( I have 2 already).

Given all this I have adopted to following rules the last 6 months to maximize enjoyment, minimize stress.

- I play 2-3 times a week for between 1 and 4 hours depending on time availability but i know going in how long I'll play.
- I follow Basic Strategy 100%, no deviations - most sessions are 100% perfect according to Basic Strategy.
- I bet a straight $15 every hand - I don't vary my bet - but take full advantage of splits/double opportunities per Basic Strategy guidelines. This save me from being pegged as a counter by a hyper active pit crew.
- I only bring $200 with me to a session and if I lose that I leave early
- I do not cap my upside though, if a good night I allow it to climb (have recently had a few $500-$600 win nights) till my time limit is up.
- I'll walk away from an extended cold table and play a different one
- I play a 6 deck game with pretty decent rules (single deck game here is a 6:5 BJ payout so I avoid it - but 6 deck is 3:2 and the other rules are generally good)
- I stay positive and optimistic in every hand, never getting negative and I avoid negative people and dealers. My best win nights are nights I have a fun positive table to play with.

My goal was to have a hobby that I can do to have fun, release stress, and be entertained while spending less than I would playing golf or some other hobby. But after 6 months following this strategy, I find I am actually up just over $2k in total, and have been up from the start. I have good and back streaks for sure but generally have a winning session 60% of the time and given my self imposed downside limit, I never have a big loss in any one session but have had some relatively bigger wins.

So my question for the board: Am I just getting lucky or can I continue to stay on the plus side?

 

[Ryemo]

You’re lucky. You’re playing a -EV game, so over time, you will eventually lose.

 

[Tater]

Great thread. You're working two jobs? So yes, you need a stress reliever. Lots of people have hobbies, some more expensive than others. Years ago, I spent a fortune playing softball. So I stepped behind the plate and those numbers turned around.
I have a friend who loves to sing and she is very good. She is an accountant for a big corp during the week. She tends bar at a karaoke club on Saturday nights. She is still around people, having fun, and singing. Only making far more than she would spend.

I think you have a great attitude, outlook on life, and hobby plan. Question to ask yourself is are you going to need therapy if you begin to go in the red? Let's hope you continue making money. But if not, how much does a therapist cost?

 

[paymypush]

You have been very lucky buying in for only 13 bets. I ran into a buzz saw last night betting $50 off the top of a new 6 deck shoe with excellent rules and penetration. I won't bore you with the details but I was down 10 units after 4 hands. Think doubles and multiple splits with doubles gone awry. And I play with an advantage.

I hope you are not too far from the casino because there will be days where you won't even get to pull in the chair before hitting the road.

Best of luck to you.

 

[xengrifter]

So my question for the board: Am I just getting lucky or can I continue to stay on the plus side?

Just lucky, but you'll pretty much break even is the reality...
...but if you know how to play with a +EV you should do so; not as a job but for fun.
...don't relate to it as entertainment but as recreation, like golf or bowling.

 

[JJP]

If one is going to play 2-3 times a week, why not learn to count? I can understand someone who plays 2-3 times a year not wanting to try to count, but this guy is planning on over 100 visits a year.

 

[Stevel96a1]

i feel lucky larry gonna pop up when i post but here goes..

im not gonna say what everyone else is saying you got lucky blah blah blah. no you do what you want with your money. you should really test it at home on the kitchen table around a 1/2 mil to over a million turns. after that you still feel comfortable w/ the results go in and have fun! you should full pay video poker machines, they already return over your money right off the bat and don't need to worry about heat

 

[LV Bear]

Of course you've simply been lucky. As JJP pointed out, if you're going to play so often, why not learn to count? There's a free school right on this website.

As a self-described "numbers guy," you should understand that you have very little chance of winning in the long run. And you should know there is no such thing as a "cold table."

If you choose to continue to play at a disadvantage, be careful to consider that compulsive gambling may rear its ugly head. I'm not saying you're a compulsive gambler now, but given the conditions you described, it's a danger to be aware of. Going to a casino over a hundred times a year with the expectation of losing doesn't seem like "stress relief" to me, even though your losses will be small given the tiny stakes you're playing.

Casinos are dirty, nasty places full of degenerates and people who would just as soon rob you as look at you. Be aware of your surroundings, don't give personal information to anyone including the casino, don't use a player's card, and in general be careful.

 

[bjo32]

You see these type of posts on blackjack forums quite often. I think they are trolling. It’s always by a new member who just signed up. By the content, it’s obvious the OP understands the game well. He starts out by saying he’s a numbers guy and knows basic strategy but then goes on to says ploppy things that drive all APs crazy, like leaving a table when it is “cold”, believing staying positive helps him win, believing it helps to stay away from negative dealers and players, believing you can fool variance by leaving after small loses and playing longer when winning, etc.

He says he flat bets so he doesn't get pegged as a counter so he knows a counter has to vary their bet to win. He says he has card counted in the past and done it well but he stopped since it took too much energy. Anybody who has card counted using a simple system knows it doesn’t take much energy.

As with all posts like this, he ends it by saying he’s played this way for a while and is winning. He then asks the question: Is he just lucky or is he onto something? And then I’m sure he sits back and enjoys the responses he will be getting. These type of posts usually get sincere replies by APs who are trying to help him by telling him he’s doing things wrong.

I almost replied back sarcastically that I think he’s found a winning formula, but he should add a couple more plays to his game to improve his winnings. He should make sure he doesn’t sit at a table where the third baseman takes “the bust card”, or at tables where people take bad hits and disrupt the “flow of the cards”. There wouldn’t be much more to add since he’s already said most of the ploppy things.

Maybe I’m wrong and the OP is sincere in his question. I doubt it though. I do enjoy these type of posts though since they make for some interesting reading.

 

[LC Larry]

Well, he hasn't been back since his initial post, so we'll see.

And Steve, it's not "Lucky." There is absolutely ZERO "luck" in any plays I or my team make. I think you're confusing me with that other Larry on the video poker forum. That isn't me and I'm not a member there. I do agree that he should deal hands or get the proper software.

 

[Tater]

You’re lucky. You’re playing a -EV game, so over time, you will eventually lose.

Hey Ryemo. I'm B.o.B. Stands for Big Ole Boy. I can be found daily in the sportsbook. Evidently we know in common. Just ask anyone for BOB. Pretty such I can put your in touch with the ass hole (you words not mine) you're looking for.

 

[Tater]

Btw. Ive met some of the players who posted in this very thread. I gave him a drink coupon and he had a wiskey and coke. The one you drink not sniff. The he went upstairs for a hamburger with another AP. IF he remembers our hospitality, he will tell you Im not who you think.

But i dont want to out anybody.

 

[Ryemo]

How does that saying go? If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck... then it’s probably a duck.

If he posts like Moses, lurks BJTF like Moses, and talks in circles like Moses... then it’s probably just Moses.

 

[Stevel96a1]

what are the odds of two lucky larries i ran into on 2 different forums!!! hehe anyway yea 2grand is bupkis, nada, a drip in the infinite gallons of blackjack, ive seen 1 man pop 2 royals within 1 hour of play or 2k or a progressive poker machine $1.25 a bet and over 3grand yea, sorry but winning 2k$ isn't all that much just buys you time, now im sure all the counters are here thinking you missed a once in a lifetime opportunity to capitalize on that win streak you endured in blackjack, maybe it will continue on or it won't one thing is for true its gone and you coulda won 10 grand instead of a measly 2 grand oh well

 

[Tater]

How does that saying go? If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck... then it’s probably a duck.

If he posts like Moses, lurks BJTF like Moses, and talks in circles like Moses... then it’s probably just Moses.

Of course I think you sound like KJ. Im not Moses. The West Coast player and Iowa guy can attest to that.

But what if it was? I mean what would you do? Seems kinda like you're all talk.

I told you i can put you in touch with him. You gonna just talk trash and hide on the net?

 

[Ryemo]

I honestly don’t care if you are or aren’t. It make no difference to me. Your account coincidentally was created here shortly after Tater was banned from BJTF. According to the bannings post, “Tater” was a sock of Moses (I’m assuming Norm simply checked your IP address). If you had a paid membership at BJTF, you’d be able to see that. So yes, I think you’re Moses, but as I said before, I couldn’t care less.

And if Moses wants to reach me personally, I’m sure he can figure how. I’m active on numerous platforms, so there’s multiple avenues. He could even create an account here (if he already hasn’t ) and he can talk to me directly any time he wants. I believe everyone here has PM privileges, unlike at BJTF.

 

[Tater]

I'm fairly certain Moses has said all he wants to to say to you. I've only seen him whizzed off once. THAT was enough. Usually a very happy guy. Anyway if you're in this neck of the woods drop into the sportsbook. I will let you know which one and I can point you in the right direction.

I've been here 20 years so I can make a read on casino people easily. You don't seem like one to me. No offense. Moses only 7 or 8. After awhile we all begin to sound and look alike.

 

[Tater]

FYI. The user name Moses was last seen on this site February 10,2010. Not the same guy Whymo is looking for.

 

[DSchles]

FYI. The user name Moses was last seen on this sight February 10,2010. Not the same guy Whymo is looking for.

FYI, this is a site, not a sight.

Don

 

[Tater]

Thank you sir. IMO many benefit from your high degree of intelligence but few realize your tremendous work ethic.

BTW. Some sites are a sight. No?