When to take a profit/loss and walk away from a shoe thread at BJTF

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#1
I don't often do this...what I will call "pulling a moses" and commenting on a thread at another forum of which I am not a part of, but I feel there was an entire aspect of this discussion which has not been touched on that is fairly important to a serious card counter.

The thread primarily focuses on walking away to preserve BR and EV And the responses are great in that regard. Walking away isn't going to change either unless as Norm wrote "you never play again".

But what was missed is that for a serious card counter, walking away from a shoe when losing is a very big tool in preserving longevity. "Booking a loss" as we sometimes call it. Now this isn't to say that you ever want or try to lose. But walking away when behind can have big value. One of the surest ways to "lose" a casino is to play rated and for the casino to have easily available records that the vast majority of your sessions ends with a win, meaning you are a strong winning player. Booking a loss helps that record look more like a regular player at a glance (even if the wins are bigger than the losses). At least there are losing sessions.

Second issue is one of the absolute worst things a player can do is sit down play for an hour or so, losing and KEEP playing, digging out of that loss, showing your bet spread and max bet numerous times, Most of us have done this. Just clawing back to even from a big hole, feels like a win. But it is seriously detrimental to longevity. The player shows far to much information, bet spreads, max bets, index plays. Players sometimes think that losing as they did at the beginning of that session buys them some sort of immunity and as a result stay far too long and expose themselves. Losing does NOT buy immunity. And digging out from that initial loss exposes the player! And often times the player pays the price for this action, not on the day of the big "dig out" but on your return visit, when you are backed off.....seemingly out of the blue.

The solution is that a player should be playing with some sort of time constraint anyway, just so you don't show too much information. Many players choose about an hour. Mine is shorter because of my circumstances of having many casinos in close proximity, which few players have. But an hour is fine. You can even stretch it to 90 minutes, IF you have had no big high count shoes where you showed your top bet and then retreated back to minimum bet. But whatever your time allotment is, if you are losing, get up walk away and "book that loss".

Again....don't try to lose, but don't be afraid to "book that loss" either. This is one of the least talked about keys to longevity.
 

LC Larry

Well-Known Member
#4
As I said before, if I were a counter in Vegas, I'd ONLY play one shoe or shuffle per casino per shift. Doesn't matter if the count went up, down, nowhere, etc. Also doesn't matter whether I raised the bets or not. Plenty of places to go to.
 

MrFatCat

Well-Known Member
#5
LC Larry said:
As I said before, if I were a counter in Vegas, I'd ONLY play one shoe or shuffle per casino per shift. Doesn't matter if the count went up, down, nowhere, etc. Also doesn't matter whether I raised the bets or not. Plenty of places to go to.
The casinos are so far apart though! You'd end up spending half your EV generating time walking/driving -- I feel like you'd give up a lot playing sessions that short, but maybe I'm wrong.

We've walked the entire Atlantic City boardwalk before and done about 30 minutes to an hour at each place, which I thought was good, but I mean, I was doing that partly for the enjoyment of wandering, drinking, sunshine, etc. I think if I was purely trying to generate EV I'd probably want to play at least 45-60 minutes per cash in, just because it will take at least 15-20 minutes to get from here to the next one, collect the car, or whatever else.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#6
My approach is exactly like LC Larry described. It has been that way since Vegas became my home base 10 years ago now (time flies). Bigplayer once, make that numerous times said, "the advantage of Las Vegas is quantity rather than quality." There just is no other place with so many "playable" games in close proximity. I choose to take advantage of that by playing short sessions and very few negative counts. I don't have to and won't sit through negative counts to get to positive count opportunities like most other players. I would rather not play those counts and spend that time...those few minutes moving on to the next playable game. :cool:
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#7
Actually after re-reading LC Larry's post, that is not how I play. He said one shoe or shuffle. THAT is too extreme for even me. I play once through my bet spread, showing my spread ONCE. I NEVER revert back to my smaller or minimum wager after showing my max or larger bet. THAT is the big "tell".

Between this, aggressive exit of negative counts and about a 45 minute time limit (for shoe games), most of my sessions are very short.
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#8
KewlJ said:
Actually after re-reading LC Larry's post, that is not how I play. He said one shoe or shuffle. THAT is too extreme for even me. I play once through my bet spread, showing my spread ONCE. I NEVER revert back to my smaller or minimum wager after showing my max or larger bet. THAT is the big "tell".

Between this, aggressive exit of negative counts and about a 45 minute time limit (for shoe games), most of my sessions are very short.
This is also how I do it. Sometimes I just take a break after a big bet "to settle down" and walk away, eventually to another pit perhaps, rather than leaving the casino entirely. But I'm not as concerned about longevity.
 
#9
KewlJ said:
Losing does NOT buy immunity. And digging out from that initial loss exposes the player! And often times the player pays the price for this action,
Yes, and exactly for that reason I often point out that in my case I have been backed off much more often when I am losing than winning, going back to my very first back off in 1974 at the Las Vegas International.

Probably close to 75% of all my back offs have been while I was losing.
 
#10
KewlJ said:
I play once through my bet spread, showing my spread ONCE. I NEVER revert back to my smaller or minimum wager after showing my max or larger bet
It might be a surprise to some, but that style of play specifically aimed at shoe games, 4 deck shoes back in the day, was first described to me in the early 70s.
 
#11
xengrifter said:
Yes, and exactly for that reason I often point out that in my case I have been backed off much more often when I am losing than winning, going back to my very first back off in 1974 at the Las Vegas International.

Probably close to 75% of all my back offs have been while I was losing.
Interesting. So do you mean specifically when you were losing but were also in the process of making a comeback to breaking even? Or just losing in general and maybe stayed longer than usual?
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#12
I don't want to step on Zengrifter's toes here answering and hope he responds as well, but many counters have made this claim over the years that the majority of their backoffs and barings occurred when they were losing fairly big. In a way it makes sense. If you are down big, chances are you have experienced some good counts, bet big and just didn't win those +EV opportunities. You don't get down BIG, losing minimum wagers. :rolleyes:

And in that case you are exposed. If you have already bet big and keep playing further shoes, you have shown your spread and Max bet and that you are moving money with the count. Once you show this more than once....you SHOULD be backed off.

I think some of us mistakenly think or thought that the casino personnel were just waiting for us to get down and then drop the hammer. That is flawed thinking. That just so happens to be one of the times you are most exposed.
 
#15
Plus when you`re heavily losing the PB is constantly having to come over to the table to verify your new buy-ins. It`s good for them to witness you losing, but once it passes a certain amount I feel like they`re automatically going to start paying a lot more attention to you no matter what their first impression of you as a player is.
 
#18
JohnCrover said:
Man, with all this talk about heat and 45-minute sessions...
If you guys only knew some of the shit I get away with...:)
Do tell us more on what you get away with. I think a lot depends on your betting limits. If you are betting red you can get away with a lot. Most of the places I play, I camp out all day long for a couple days. By the way, how many back offs had you had. I do have some information from private emails you shared with me which I won't discuss.
 
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