First 100 hours

#1
Just logged my 100th hour and got my first back-off in the same trip. My stomach dropped straight out of my ass!:eek::eek:

Since my big downswing the last few weeks I've been playing aggressively, no cover, full spread, bet jumping, wonging, back counting...ect. I was asking for it. Pit boss was nice though....:cool:

I should have seen it coming because they had asked me 5 times to get a players card and I said no each time. It was getting annoying. Funny thing is I had just started playing anonymously a month ago, after reading about pros vs cons of playing rated... They might have been trying to put me on a flyer.

Kept a detailed log and all things considered My A.V. is $37.50 Since I started this year.:cool:

Took a dive from where it was, but I'm still a bit above my simmed E.V. Within 1 standard deviation.

Card counting has been one hell of a roller-coaster. Glad I picked it up. Excited to see where it goes from here.

After the things I've learned here I'll make sure to be more active here. Asking and answering questions.
 
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#4
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
I just started in February....already have 450 hours in!
Jay217 said:
After the things I've learned here I'll make sure to be more active here. Asking and answering questions.
Please tell us more...
... What system, types of games, any sucker bets, whatever. Enquiring minds want to know.
 
#5
xengrifter said:
Please tell us more...
... What system, types of games, any sucker bets, whatever. Enquiring minds want to know.
I have a $5,000 bank roll...my bet spread is $10-$100 (although truly since I have $5 tables where I live, it is $5-$100)

True +1 $10
True +2 $30
True +3 $50
True +4 $100

Right now, I am only up $1400 after 450 hours :(

But, for my first 200 hours, i did not have a good bet spread. I learned that later after I bought a simulator. I was only raising my bet $10 per each true count lol!! Not betting nearly enough. Oh well, everybody is new once!
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#6
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
I have a $5,000 bank roll...my bet spread is $10-$100 (although truly since I have $5 tables where I live, it is $5-$100)

True +1 $10
True +2 $30
True +3 $50
True +4 $100

Right now, I am only up $1400 after 450 hours :(

But, for my first 200 hours, i did not have a good bet spread. I learned that later after I bought a simulator. I was only raising my bet $10 per each true count lol!! Not betting nearly enough. Oh well, everybody is new once!
There is an aspect of this spread/ramp that I like very much. It is the jump from $50 to $100 for TC+3 to TC+4. Based on the rest of the spread this is not going to be 'optimal', but if you have software as you say, you should already know that. Too many players are afraid to move very far away from what software says is "optimal". Almost any "optimal spread/ramp" will be far too uniform, meaning easy to detect and that more than offsets any benefit from playing optimal. If a players bankroll allows RoR-wise, they should move at least somewhat away from optimal and uniformity.

I have 3 hard fast rules that I incorporate into any bet spread and ramp.

1.) minimum wager is just that....minimum wager. It is not some sort of "unit" to be raised and lowered by. The minimum wager should be a fraction of what you are raising and lowering bets by.

2.) Max bet MUST be placed by a TC+4 for shoe game. To wait any longer, means you are not getting the full benefit of max bet as the frequencies will occur too infrequent to be all that beneficial. To take advantage of any extraordinary high counts, which happen pretty rarely in a shoe game, I employ a "supermax" bet at very high and ultra rare high true counts. But this isn't even necessary. This is a bonus type thing. It is very rare.

3.) Get away from uniformity. Way too easy to spot.

**4.) there is also consideration to monetary thresholds. I have talked about this before and am not going to get into it again here, but there are certain thresholds that draw more attention, like $500, $1000 ($100 for lower limit). Don't max at these thresholds. It is best to stay just below which ever one applies. If you are going to play through one, make it worthwhile and go well above.

I'll give an example. Suppose after consulting software and rounding you have a bet spread ramp that looks like this.

Minimum wager $50
TC+1 $100
TC+2 $200
TC+3 $300
TC+4 $400
conservative 1-8 spread. WAY to uniform.

So if software and my bankroll were pointing me towards a spread/ramp like this I would change up to something like this.

Min bet $50
TC 0 $75 ** more in a moment
TC+1 $125
TC+2 $200
TC+4 $400

Ok let's start with the TC 0 wager. This came from Zengrifter (Xengrifter of this site). For years he talked about spreading both ways. For years I though he was nuts (still do regarding many things) . But there is some value in spreading both ways. First, NOT all 0 count wagers need to be at that $75 level. Just the first couple after the shuffle until you start to determine where the count is going. If it is not going anywhere or goes negative, revert back to the minimum wager, especially after a loss. But if the count starts going positive keep playing this slightly higher wager. This might allow you to get into your spread and show what appears to be an even smaller spread $75-$400 (slightly more than 1-5).

Now if the count drops and you drop back to $50, you are showing nothing, having played both $50 and $75 bets. No significants. In order for pit/surveillance to see your entire spread, the count will have had to go negative and then positive all the way to max bet (+4) in the same shoe.
This happens but not all that regularly.

The $125 wager @ TC+1 helps break up the uniformity.

All jumps in bet will allow for me to make that jump from chips in my betting circle after a winning wager.

Starting @75 and betting $200 through TC+3 (no increase at TC+3) means I have shown less than a 1-3 spread through TC+3. Drawn ZERO attention until I get to my max bet (TC+4) and once I place this max bet I am exiting at the next shuffle.

Now once I place that max bet of $400, at a TC+4, I am playing that max bet all the ways back down to the TC of +2, right through the TC of +3. I may even play that max bet down to a TC of +1.5 or so. My bankroll allows me to do this and I have already hit that exit trigger, so I am exiting anyway.

A lot to digest here I know. The key points are Max bet by TC+4. Break the uniformity patterns. And spread both ways at least a little bit. At higher amounts I am probably starting out betting 2x minimum rather than 1.5 x, because you are only doing this for a couple rounds until you see where count is going, the cost is not that much. Like I said, I have picked up things from so many people in this community over the years....this is Zengrifters contribution to the KJ experience. ;)
 
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KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#7
One more word about "optimal". The optimal purist will run the sims and come up with a number of what my moving away from optimality costs. :D 10%, 15%, maybe a little more. But what THAT equation doesn't add in is the 3, 4, 5 times (who even knows what the multiple is) longevity that I get from it. :)

I will call this theory the" KJ optimality". :cool:
 

johndoe

Well-Known Member
#8
This is really good stuff, and I'm glad you're willing to share it. This kind of subtle strategy for counting these days is super helpful for new and experienced players. The math and playing strategy is the easy part. Flying under the radar is much harder, especially for extended times.
 
#9
KJ has some really good tactical advice in this thread on how to get away with counting. So I say this not to take anything away from that, because it`s great to have knowledgeable people on these forums that are willing to share things like that, and also really take the time to dive into the details like he did. Personally I`ve learned a ton from him. Here`s the point I`m getting to though... kcchiefsfan, don`t take this the wrong way or as an insult because I`m just trying to help you. Aside from making your bet spread not so uniform, you don`t have the bankroll to do anything he`s talking about with cover betting. I don`t know what game you`re playing, but I don`t need to know. It`s 50 max bets. That`s not enough to last through a bad downswing. It sounds like you have some sim software so that`s good. What does it say your risk of ruin is? If you have CVData you can really delve into the costs of doing various cover betting moves, etc., too. But with 50 max bets I don`t see how your risk of ruin could be low and do much of anything cover betting-wise. I`m glad you`re winning and hope it continues. Just know that losing 50 max bets in blackjack can happen way more quickly than you realize.
 
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#10
SplitFaceDisaster said:
KJ has some really good tactical advice in this thread on how to get away with counting. So I say this not to take anything away from that, because it`s great to have knowledgeable people on these forums that are willing to share things like that, and also really take the time to dive into the details like he did. Personally I`ve learned a ton from him. Here`s the point I`m getting to though... kcchiefsfan, don`t take this the wrong way or as an insult because I`m just trying to help you. Aside from making your bet spread not so uniform, you don`t have the bankroll to do anything he`s talking about with cover betting. I don`t know what game you`re playing, but I don`t need to know. It`s 50 max bets. That`s not enough to last through a bad downswing. It sounds like you have some sim software so that`s good. What does it say your risk of ruin is? If you have CVData you can really delve into the costs of doing various cover betting moves, etc., too. But with 50 max bets I don`t see how your risk of ruin could be low and do much of anything cover betting-wise. I`m glad you`re winning and hope it continues. Just know that losing 50 max bets in blackjack can happen way more quickly than you realize.
no, i appreciate any constructive criticism. Fair question, fair thoughts. A 500 unit min bet, 50 unit max bet bank roll with 1-10 spread is about 10% RoR according to blackjack apprentice bankroll page.

https://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/recommended-blackjack-bankroll/
 
#12
KewlJ said:
For years I thought Zengrifter was nuts (still do regarding many things)
We are making progress...
... Someday you will say, "I used to think that ZG was a little bit nuts, but now I realize that everybody else is flat-out crazy."
 
#13
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
no, i appreciate any constructive criticism. Fair question, fair thoughts. A 500 unit min bet, 50 unit max bet bank roll with 1-10 spread is about 10% RoR according to blackjack apprentice bankroll page.

https://www.blackjackapprenticeship.com/recommended-blackjack-bankroll/
BJA tends to be a bit more on the generous side when computing RoR, and their numbers are very much "ballpark ranges." What they say is 10% could easily be 25%.
 
#14
JohnCrover said:
BJA tends to be a bit more on the generous side when computing RoR, and their numbers are very much "ballpark ranges." What they say is 10% could easily be 25%.
oh well, they are the reason i got into card counting, so i thank them for that!! :)
 
#15
BJA is great. They're one of the reasons I got into card counting myself, and I still use their BS Deviations to this day, but they tend to glaze over
swings + risk.
 
#16
JohnCrover said:
BJA is great. They're one of the reasons I got into card counting myself, and I still use their BS Deviations to this day, but they tend to glaze over
swings + risk.
wish you could share their deviations :)

i just use illustrious 18
 
#17
kcchiefsfan1982 said:
wish you could share their deviations :)

i just use illustrious 18
Just download their practice phone app; all the deviations are there. Can`t remember whether it`s free or not, but if it`s not then I doubt it`s more than 5 or 10 bucks. What John is saying above is that the BJA spec sheet you posted is just a generalized overview. There`s a lot of details in all this when you look closer. For example, I took your spread and put it into a 6 deck DAS Surrender RSA 1 deck pen game (have a feeling your game isn`t this good, but I could be wrong). Using BJA deviations, I get a RoR of 12.6%. But the BJA thing you posted above isn`t wrong; their sims are based on playing 2 hands while what I simmed for you was playing one. When I sim 2 hands like they did, the RoR drops to actually a little less than what they said to 9.8% (they just rounded the figure). Now say I add another player to your table; the RoR jumps from 12.6% to 13.3%. Do you leave the same bet out after a push when the count drops? While necessary unless the pit are completely oblivious to counting, the cost for that is probably more than you`d think also.

Anyway, my point in saying all this is to really understand all the numbers I suggest to get CVCX and if you want to know more, CVData. Or you could get a BJA membership; they have a sim tool that`s similar although I haven`t used it. I would hate for you to have a big downswing and then you regret not looking at the numbers close enough. I knew all the numbers well before I started and looking back I should have been more cognizant of the various scenarios. I was ahead by a lot and then lost it all plus a third of my bankroll in a pretty short period of time. I shouldn`t have been that surprised, but how RoR scales is wild and I didn`t look at enough examples. For the game I used above, say I put in 3k for a roll instead of 5k. The percentage jumps from 12.6% to 28.9%. So you can have a 1% RoR and still have massive swings in comparison to your total roll. Anyway, until you purchase one of those two, if you`d like me to sim the specific game you`re playing I`d be glad to.
 
#18
Bankroll just hit an all-time low after dumping over $4,000 in two days. :(
Going to be throwing in the towel once I get to 1,000 hours and show no profit. About 700 hours to go. 300 hours played so far and getting crushed.
 
#19
It's disappointing to me because people like KJ go on these epic runs right out of the gate and have long prosperous careers from BJ, but I just so happen to be one of the few people who can't make it just because of bad luck, regardless of how hard I work.
I started off with $9,100 now I have $2,500 left. I still have an extra $10,000 on top of that to play with since I got an investor. We're playing with a risk of what was about 5%, probably a little higher now. When 5% feels like 100%...very depressing.
 
#20
JohnCrover said:
It's disappointing to me because people like KJ go on these epic runs right out of the gate and have long prosperous careers from BJ, but I just so happen to be one of the few people who can't make it just because of bad luck, regardless of how hard I work.
I started off with $9,100 now I have $2,500 left. I still have an extra $10,000 on top of that to play with since I got an investor. We're playing with a risk of what was about 5%, probably a little higher now. When 5% feels like 100%...very depressing.
A couple things...

The bell curve levels out at about 1,000 hours. At 500 hours, if you take a group of 10 ppl, they will be all over the place. At 1,000 hours is where they all get very close in results, everything starts leveling out. (numbers are a weird thing, I admit.)

Second,

As you lose money, are you changing your betting spreads to keep yourself at 5% RoR? If not, you should be.

Stay the course...for a career....4,000 hours should be a long term goal.

I know 300 hours is what it is...but, it is little when looking at the big picture. I feel for you. I lost all my profit at around 300 hours, but, luckily, i have not gone in the red since early on. I'm also small potatoes...$5,000 bank roll for me. I'm currently at $1,500 profit after 450 hours.
 
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