My frustratingly bad results in Las Vegas

Runit

Active Member
#1
I have been to LV three times. The first trip I won $14,000 in a short period of time, probably within 20 hours of play. My second trip is when it gets ugly. I lost 20k nearly immediately, nearly recuperate the whole thing then go on the ugliest run of cards I have yet to see. I lost 20k in 3.5 hours of play. Fast forward a few months and I'm in Las Vegas again. This trip I'm about 20 hours of play in and I've lost $28,500. My max bet is 2x500 at most.
I'm a professional, it's the only thing I've ever done. BJ has always been my sole source of income. I have played slightly over 2,000 hours now. I have yet to see anything like I've experienced in Las Vegas. I'm use to taking big losses on occasion but here in LV it feels like I'm getting robbed. After not many hours of play I leave every casino at least 3k poorer.
At this point I don't know what to do. I'm taking a day off to rest my mind. Throughout my career I've had a steady ascent upwards for every 500 hour block played. I just increased my stakes to 2x500 and ever since I have had the worst results of my life. I have only won 10k after 500 hours of play. I thought I was finally pulling away from my horrendous run of cards but then I just lost $28,500 in 20 hours of play and my hopes were violently ripped away. Now I'm resizing my bets and changing my strategy to lower my variance.
 

Runit

Active Member
#3
Typical LV shoe would be a fair assessment of the situation. I'm not playing the garbage 8 decker with a 2 deck cut no surrender no RSA in case you're wondering.
 

MJGolf

Well-Known Member
#4
Do you have CVCX? Did you run for your bet spread and bankroll? I tried to input info from what you said above for 20 hours of play and 2x$500 max bet. It looks like your loss is outside 2 standard deviations (or possible but not probable). But I don't have the full amount of info to input. You might ask Don and see what he says,, since he knows stats off the top of his head better than most programs.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#5
Just a rough approximation, but the loss is not "impossible" by any means. It's about - 1.5 s.d. (had to guess at some of the inputs) and the probability of that occurrence is around 7%. So, surely unlucky, but something that, if you play long enough, is entirely inevitable.

Hang in there. The other side of the curve is a lot more fun!

Don
 

Midwest Player

Well-Known Member
#6
If you are a pro, I'm surprised you have been to Vegas only 3 times. Where do you play? If you have only played 2,000 hours that is not much experience. Over what time period does 2,000 hours cover. I would expect a pro to get in at least 500 to 1000 hours of play in a year. My life time blackjack play I estimate to be around 12,000 hours, but a lot of that was weekend play when I had a full time job. Since I retired my blackjack play has been 4,868 hours.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#7
Runit said:
. Now I'm resizing my bets and changing my strategy to lower my variance.
What exactly does this mean? You really gave very little info, which is why Don had to guess at some of the numbers. I would want to know your bet SPREAD and RAMP before I even offered a guess at anything. This is necessary to even determine if you are playing a winning game.

Two things immediately popped into my mind. 1) you are talking a relatively small sample size and with a small sample size almost anything is possible. And 2), I am not a fan of the 2 x anything max bet. Yes, I understand the advantages, more money on the table without the ALL the additional risk, but the 2 bets are not independent. You get into a period where the dealer is just pulling 20 and and 21 and and you are just getting killed (twice as much) and that is related to #1. This can easily occur with a small sample size. It just skews all the numbers.

I have dealt with some of this same issue this year. For 3 months (small sample size) I was able to play much higher stakes than normal. Problem was my results sucked over that small sample size. That is variance. You gotta get to the long run (a larger sample size) for anything to have any meaning.
I have had similar swings this year playing similar max bet amount (1 hand instead of 2, but similar total amount). It doesn't seem out of the ordinary to me for that max bet. But it does seem like maybe you aren't completely comfortable with that level of play and those kind of losses and that is not meant as a criticism. I went through some of THAT this year too playing higher stakes and experiences bigger swings. Gotta play within your own comfort level.
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#8
Midwest Player said:
If you are a pro, I'm surprised you have been to Vegas only 3 times. Where do you play? If you have only played 2,000 hours that is not much experience. Over what time period does 2,000 hours cover. I would expect a pro to get in at least 500 to 1000 hours of play in a year. My life time blackjack play I estimate to be around 12,000 hours, but a lot of that was weekend play when I had a full time job. Since I retired my blackjack play has been 4,868 hours.
You are nit picking, as you tend to do MWP.

At my level of play, mid level, which doesn't seem all that different than the OP's, I play 800-1000 hours a year....closer to 800 really. I don't do results by hour, so that is an estimate, but I think a fair one. Professional players that play higher limits play even less, sometimes only a few hundred hours a year.

So anyway, I think we can all tell that the OP is somewhat inexperienced despite his self-label of professional player. Suppose he has been playing for 2 years, supporting himself for 2 years? Is he not a professional player? Even as he continues to learn and gain new experiences?
 
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Runit

Active Member
#9
DSchles said:
Just a rough approximation, but the loss is not "impossible" by any means. It's about - 1.5 s.d. (had to guess at some of the inputs) and the probability of that occurrence is around 7%. So, surely unlucky, but something that, if you play long enough, is entirely inevitable.

Hang in there. The other side of the curve is a lot more fun!

Don
I'm doing my best to get through it. For most of my career I have ran pretty good relative to EV, or so I project. I was right at EV according to my projections until I took this loss so it's a sour taste.
 

Runit

Active Member
#10
I've been playing professionally for a little under 2 years now. I just started playing 2X500 about 500 hours ago. I would flirt with it by going from 2x250 - 2x300 range then abruptly kind of just going to 2x500 on certain days. What has resulted from that practice is a 13k win after 500 hours, which is the smallest win I've ever logged after that duration of time. Even during my 2x75 top bet days I have never had such a poor performing 500 hour block.
In Vegas my bet spread is sporadic so it's tough to say exactly what my ramp was and there's so many different games out there it's hard to just sim one of them and call it a day. There's some DD, some 6d, some 8d, some good cuts, some bad cuts, etc. I have used a little bit of cover in the past but it's basically going out the window now.
 
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