NOOB Questions

#1
Background - I bought "Beat The Dealer" when I was in junior high school. Seriously. And by way of perspective, that was before gambling was even legal in Atlantic City. I've always been a statistics nerd.

About 5 years ago I started going to Las Vegas regularly (I retired early) and from about 2017 on, every month pre-COVID. I used to play craps and blackjack maybe 2-3 hours a day each, $5 or $10 and occasionally $25. I didn't even bother to memorize the entire basic strategy. Around late 2018 I did memorize the basic strategy and guess what, my results improved! I started counting in late 2019, although without really reading anything, my base bet was $15 going down to $5 or up to $30, 2-deck game, and I broke even on my two pre-COVID trips in 2020.

During my "time off" I worked on counting a bit. I normally don't gamble outside Las Vegas, but I decided to give it a try at a local casino. Playing a 6-deck game for about 3 1/2 hours and a bet range of $15-$60, I made $560 in 3 1/2 hours. I have a sense that I was a little bit lucky, and from what I've read I wouldn't have that EV with my bet range for that time.

I don't have a real need to make money at blackjack. It would be nice to make enough to pay for my trips, or at least part of them, and certainly to not lose money. I would hate to lose my playing privileges at the hotel I stay at.

So here are my questions.

1) If I can win $560 in the situation described, does this mean anything at all? Does it mean that I can probably play at least a slightly positive-value game? Don't get me wrong, if I lose $1120 next time, I'm not going to be slitting my wrists.
2) Given the number of casinos in Vegas, it is reasonable for me to hit each one for a 2-3 hour playing session once every few months? I would probably start out with $25 and play a range from $10-15 up to $75 and not do anything too obvious, like splitting 10's. And of course if I have a bad session, I'll put that property on my list for a repeat visit sooner. Is this enough to stay under the radar? Playing without a players card of course. I would probably still play at my "home" casino but I'll make sure I don't do much better than break even there.
3) From what I've read on this and other boards, someone playing red and green and a bet spread of 6-1 will not really get a lot of attention. Is that a correct impression?
4) The game I had been playing was a 2-deck game with cards dealt face down. The game I played in this week was an 8-deck shoe dealt face up, and I found it a lot easier to count when I could see the cards as they came out. (They also dealt to about an 80-85% penetration, which was nice.) Is this a common thought among AP's?
5) They definitely know me by sight at my "home" casino, or at least did a year ago. If I rathole a few chips, give some back at craps and video poker, and end up very close to even but less than their EV, will that keep me from being backed off?
6) What are the best kinds of places to go unnoticed.

I know there are no guarantees, but this is all about optimization in many different directions.
 
#2
Someone else might sound off on my answers below but regardless here is some of my advice. Hope it helps.

1) No; after one session you would not be able to tell if you're playing a positive game
2) It doesn't matter how much you win or lose. If they notice it will be because of your style of play. It may be difficult to find low limit tables that offer 3:2.
3) Lower limits will get less attention than higher limits but it all depends on what you're betting/spreading
4) Great penetration there. Heads up 2-deck game could potentially be better though.
5) No; they will only back you off if they notice your blackjack play. They won't care about other games you might play
6) The supermarket, movie theatres, CVS, etc.
 
#3
Thank you for the advice.

There are plenty of low-limits 3:2 games in Vegas.

Assume I won't do anything weird, like splitting T's or doubling 9 against a 7.

I think my ideal spread is $15-75. Is this a "low" limit and "low" spread by a casino's definition, to the point where they wouldn't even pay attention?

At my "home" casino, I feel like it would be pointless to play without a card, they already know me there. If I hit them for $500-$1000 per trip, even without doing anything noticeable, will they notice the results and back me off? I'm thinking it's still a good idea to not shit where I sleep.

What about my perception that shoe games, despite the slightly worse EV, are easier to count? Do I just need to get better at counting where the cards are dealt face-down?
 
#4
Every casino is different. They will eventually notice your play. A nasty pit boss might back you off.
Casinos don’t care about the money. They only try to back off card counters. If you lose $10,000 they can and will still back you off if they think you’re counting.

Yes

Also, if this is a hobby I highly recommend CVCX and the Casino Verite package. Actually, I recommend it for anyone who plays blackjack. It’ll take a bit to understand the program but it’s very powerful.
 

MJGolf

Well-Known Member
#5
redtop43 said:
Thank you for the advice.

There are plenty of low-limits 3:2 games in Vegas. (Not any more there are not. Seems Covid has decreased conditions and increased table limits; at least on the Strip)

Assume I won't do anything weird, like splitting T's or doubling 9 against a 7. (Splitting Tens will bring attention; usually a smart ass remark by other players or the dealer AND it will bring attention from the pit IF you are betting high enough. But doubling 9 against a 7 will not hardly raise an eyebrow.)

I think my ideal spread is $15-75. Is this a "low" limit and "low" spread by a casino's definition, to the point where they wouldn't even pay attention?(it won't cause you any issue on the Strip, whatsoever, or most other places UNLESS you are playing at a sweaty place downtown, like the El Cortez or the like.)



At my "home" casino, I feel like it would be pointless to play without a card, they already know me there. If I hit them for $500-$1000 per trip, even without doing anything noticeable, will they notice the results and back me off? I'm thinking it's still a good idea to not shit where I sleep. (Depends how often you play at your "home" casino; many places will keep track of your cumulative win, also. If it gets to a point that it makes them feel uncomfortable due to the total you have won..........especially if you have no losing sessions..........they may "talk" to you.)

What about my perception that shoe games, despite the slightly worse EV, are easier to count? Do I just need to get better at counting where the cards are dealt face-down? (That just depends upon your skill level and practicing. I don't find a double deck dealt face down very difficult to count. You just have to learn a little different order to counting the cards. Nowadays due to Covid, you will find that some casinos are dealing double deck face up.........a really nice touch)
Also I second opinion above. You state you are a bit of a "math nerd" then you will enjoy CVCX at least. It will provide you the EV of various bet spreads at various playing conditions and rules. You sill see that the EV is NOT as high at your bet level and spread..........especially at an 8 deck game as you might think or believe.
 
#6
I wrote a crude simulation to test the effect of bet spread, and found that 10-1 gave about twice the profit of 6-1. If I were asked cold, I would say that a $15 bet and 5-1 spread with perfect basic play but limited variation, would win maybe $30-40 an hour. I did look at CVCX and what was most interesting to me was that the 2-deck games have a much higher frequency of high true counts (4+).

I really dislike the Strip, but I can break down and go there if needed to play, especially now that parking is free again. I used to avoid it because $15 was more than I was comfortable playing for, but if I'm going to try being an AP, it would be foolish to not play for that much - and basically, I'm just more affluent than I was 5 or 10 or 20 years ago.

I plan to play every day at my home casino. They do keep track of my winnings and send me a letter every year - not an actual 1099-G, just a letter. I think it's mainly based on buy-in and color up. So if I can successfully rathole chips, I can stay under the radar. It's easier since when I play in the morning I'm usually wearing sweats, and it's fairly easy between decks/shoes to reach into the pocket of my hoodie for my phone, and drop a few chips in. Less conspicuous than sticking something in pants pockets, at least I think. My basic daily routine will be a couple of hours at my home casino, go upstairs and shower, then go out to a different casino, but try to not go to the same place twice in a period of about 3-4 months, unless I lose in which case I don't they'll be worried. I totally get that they don't care if you win or you lose but only if you count, but it's less likely that a loser is counting.

Two more questions:
1) Say my home casino "catches" me counting. Will they let me keep playing under restricted conditions (say max bet spread of 2, or craps but no blackjack), or will they just tell me to get my ass out and never come back?
2) How much do the casinos talk to each other? If I go to 4 different casinos in a week and maybe each one isn't totally sure if I'm counting or not, or even if one is totally sure and backs me off, will they compare notes?

Thanks to everyone for all the help. Especially since I'm now doing what I started learning to do 50 years ago.

Sidebar, one of the "Four Horsemen" was chair of the computer science department at the university I went to. I tried to talk to him about the development of the JASA paper once. His response was "It was a bunch of guys with adding machines, nothing to talk about" and walked away.
 
#7
Yeah, I also had a lot of revelations running simulations on CVCX, though most revelations were in the Bankroll/RoR department.

Winning/losing doesn’t matter; they will just try and notice if you are varying your bet.

Most casinos use RFID tracking devices in their chips to determine overall win/loss. Ratholing would not combat this (but still helpful when coloring up so pit doesn’t see your session winnings)

1) depends
2) maybe

hard to answer those questions since it depends on the casino. Though, I’ll say it’s easier to spot a counter if they aren’t using cover.

Since this is just a hobby I would just say go for it and whatever happens happens. If you want to last longer try using cover. For research all I recommend is BJA3 and and purchased version of CVCX (especially since you said you’re math/stats strong)
 
#8
I ran a sim for fun:

Hi-Lo; Sweet 16 and Fab 4 indicies and leaving at TC<=-1
Six deck, 80% pen, headsup, H17 DAS Sr
150 rounds/hr (higher than normal because headsup)
$15 1-5 spread, max bet $75 at TC=4

Projects to win $30/hr with a RoR of 1.7% at a Bankroll of $10,000.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#9
Good luck with back-counting all to yourself and always finding another game to hop into when the count goes south, while flying under the radar!! Of course, 80% pen and DAS and LS? Good luck with that, too. Somewhat of a pipe dream.

Don
 
#11
AC3SrW1LD said:
I ran a sim for fun:

Hi-Lo; Sweet 16 and Fab 4 indicies and leaving at TC<=-1
Six deck, 80% pen, headsup, H17 DAS Sr
150 rounds/hr (higher than normal because headsup)
$15 1-5 spread, max bet $75 at TC=4

Projects to win $30/hr with a RoR of 1.7% at a Bankroll of $10,000.
That's very helpful. I'm not sure I understand all the terminology but I understand most of it, and I'm still working on indices. I don't know how much I'd get to play heads-up, and yes, I think leaving at TC <= -1 isn't practical.

It will be interesting to see what the situation is in Vegas. I'm going the last week of May. The only disaster would be no 3:2 games < $50. I don't really like the strip anyway, but I figure I will need it to spread my play around.
 

SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
#12
Another noob question: what is casino edge if i flat bet using Illustrious 18 (except splitting 10s) and following rules: 6D, H17, DAS, No surrender? Or what software can tell me?
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#13
SlyPooch said:
Another noob question: what is casino edge if i flat bet using Illustrious 18 (except splitting 10s) and following rules: 6D, H17, DAS, No surrender? Or what software can tell me?
Assuming 4.5/6, 0.564%.

Software you want is Norm Wattenberger's Casino Verite CVCX.

Don
 

SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
#14
DSchles said:
Assuming 4.5/6, 0.564%.

Software you want is Norm Wattenberger's Casino Verite CVCX.

Don
I see 0.62 edge using basic strategy....hmm...i would have thought illustrious 18 would have done more for me
 

SlyPooch

Well-Known Member
#18
DSchles said:
Assuming 4.5/6, 0.564%.

Software you want is Norm Wattenberger's Casino Verite CVCX.

Don
what about same paremters with 10 unit bet spread? I have CVBJ, but it appears it will not tell me.
 
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