Bankroll advice for a new counter!

[Skidepper]

Hey guys I've been around blackjack and counting for about two years now and am finally going to be able to test out my skills in the casino. I would have done it years ago but I've never had the money. Although right now I don't have a lot to work with I think it's enough to get started and wanted your guys opinion.

Basically the games I'm going to be playing is 6D S17 (sometimes 8D) with an average casino edge of .004% to .005% at TC of 0. I was thinking of running a 1-16 spread (max bet at +6 TC), 25$ units with possibly some 50$ unit play. I plan on wonging out when the true count gets to -2 or worse. I use the high-low method with illustrious 18 variations.

So pretty much I've got $10,000 to work with and am planning on playing about 2 hours a week. I have ran simulations and calculated standard deviations and estimated winnings and stuff but I'm just not 100% sure that my numbers are correct and fear this could be a suicide mission.

Anyways just wanted your guys thoughts on this possible plan. I don't plan to start for at least a month so there is some time to tweak or worst case abandon ship!

-Skidep

 

[mathman]

4/1000's of a percent :laugh: That would be a game!:whip:

 

[21gunsalute]

A house edge of .004-.005%? If this is true I definitely want to know where this game is located, but I think your numbers are probably just a wee bit off (I think you missed a couple of decimal places).

I think your other figures are off too (no doubt due at least partially to the severely understated house edge). A $25-50 standard unit bet sounds awfully high for a $10,000 bankroll.

 

[BUZZARD]

I wish I had 10k- well u do- so try not to screw it up. if you only have quarter tables available you are screwed- unless you do well the first leg of this journey. Play 10 mins if u can or 15 if that is all they offer. Spread 10-150 or 15-200 with wonging and you should do fine.Two hours a week? Good Lord man, there is no point- 'lessen you just having fun- why risk that loot -you will just be gambling if you play 100 hours a year.

 

[Skidepper]

Lol okay see this is exactly why I felt it necessary to get the opinion of real pros! So yes what I meant was .4% to .5% house edge and true count of 0... my bad. And the reason for only playing 2 hours a week is because I figured my bankroll would actually last me a year but I guess that's a bad plan too. I really can only play at 3 casinos that are within 2 hours or so of me and I would play 8 hours a week if I could I just don't want to get barred. What do you guys think the minimum amount of hours I should put in on the year if I hope to be successful? If I'm putting in more hours at only 3 different casino's I was thinking the longest I would ever play for is one hour but I would leave immediately after a shoe reaches a high TC.

Another thing I'm unsure about is the player cards. Is it a bad idea to get them because I've heard it looks suspicious if you don't?

As for playing 15 or 10 dollar tables it's just not really an option. They're always packed and the rules are crap on those tables. That's why I want to play 50 min sometimes because you can almost always find a good game. Thanks for the tips guys and keep em coming!

-Skidep

 

[BMDD]

Skip, is your bankroll at all replenishable? If not, it is likely you will lose your 10K before realizing your expectation. While spreading a $50 unit 1-16 you can expect regular hourly swings of about a quarter of your entire bankroll(S17,DAS,RSA 75% $50-2X$400).

If you go through with this plan, your EV will be there but you won't have the CE to back it up. It really depends how much you want to gamble. If you can accept losing, knowing you had the best of it then good luck, but just know that you are gambling and that there is no guarantee of any profit.

 

[Skidepper]

I might be able to get another 10K in a year or so if I'm lucky. Pretty much though I'll need like 30-40K for this type of play? This is just a major bummer because I know I have the skills to do it if only I had the $$$$$$$

-Skidep

 

[aslan]

I might be able to get another 10K in a year or so if I'm lucky. Pretty much though I'll need like 30-40K for this type of play? This is just a major bummer because I know I have the skills to do it if only I had the $$$$$$$

-Skidep

A good rule of thumb would be $50,000 for a $50 min game, unless of course, your bankroll is replenishable.

 

[sagefr0g]

Hey guys I've been around blackjack and counting for about two years now and am finally going to be able to test out my skills in the casino. I would have done it years ago but I've never had the money. Although right now I don't have a lot to work with I think it's enough to get started and wanted your guys opinion.

Basically the games I'm going to be playing is 6D S17 (sometimes 8D) with an average casino edge of .004% to .005% at TC of 0. I was thinking of running a 1-16 spread (max bet at +6 TC), 25$ units with possibly some 50$ unit play. I plan on wonging out when the true count gets to -2 or worse. I use the high-low method with illustrious 18 variations.

So pretty much I've got $10,000 to work with and am planning on playing about 2 hours a week. I have ran simulations and calculated standard deviations and estimated winnings and stuff but I'm just not 100% sure that my numbers are correct and fear this could be a suicide mission.

Anyways just wanted your guys thoughts on this possible plan. I don't plan to start for at least a month so there is some time to tweak or worst case abandon ship!

-Skidep

am i missing it, i don't see where you have considered ROR (risk of ruin) beyond stating you fear you may be on a suicide mission.
just me maybe but yeah, sounds like a suicide mission. doubtless your ROR would be way, way up there, way to high.
and you are just starting out?
just me maybe, if you do this i hope you have one heck of a lot of luck, because you are gonna need it.
i'm no pro but it's my understanding that pro's prefer to play with a small risk of run, around 0.1% or so. consider this post that a pro made:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=202554&postcount=10
whatever, i would definitely not follow through with your plan as far as any amount of play all sort of an approach. just me, it would be messy enough with an all wong approach with the unit size you are considering and the amount of experience that you have. even all wonging you ROR is still going to be way to high IMHO.
not meaning to sound so discouraging but it would be a shame if you lost that ten grand.
see this is what these friggin casinos do, they like to only offer ridiculously high table minimums, knowing full well that most players don't have the bankroll, knowledge or experience to withstand the beating that they are going to take. knowing that most players will lose a crap load of money, be disheartened, lose their shirts and give up the fight.
edit:
whatever, you said you simulated your plan. that's good, but one thing to think about, you can simulate any situation and come up with some optimal plan for that situation. problem is, that doesn't mean it's a good idea to implement that plan. key here, IMHO is consideration of risk, but you seem to only be considering the rosy side, what you could win, sorta thing.

 

[Bojack1]

I might be able to get another 10K in a year or so if I'm lucky. Pretty much though I'll need like 30-40K for this type of play? This is just a major bummer because I know I have the skills to do it if only I had the $$$$$$$

-Skidep

Why can't you play at lower stakes for now? Maybe take the year to add to your bankroll in and outside the game. You say you may be able to get another 10k within the year, and if you really have skills, you should be able to build a more reasonable bankroll. I would suggest being very aggressive at trying to play mostly advantageous situations and very little play all. This may help leverage your short bank. But playing as you suggest in your first post in this thread will most likely not give you a very good result. You don't need a huge bank to play skillfully, but you do need to play skillfully to build and keep one.

 

[Skidepper]

Ya my ROR would be pretty high but honeslty at this point I just want to play. I've been patient for years and finally I have something to work it's just so hard to hold off even longer. Anyways if my ROR is like 40% which is crazy high that means I have a 40% chance to lose it all before I double it right? I haven't calculated it exaclty yet but I'm working with simulators as we speak to try and figure someting out. Honeslty at this point I would be down to take those odds. I just figure if I get lucky on this first little mission and double that 10 grand then I'm set and would be able to play more conservatively with a normal ROR.

 

[BJgenius007]

Hey guys I've been around blackjack and counting for about two years now and am finally going to be able to test out my skills in the casino. I would have done it years ago but I've never had the money. Although right now I don't have a lot to work with I think it's enough to get started and wanted your guys opinion.

Basically the games I'm going to be playing is 6D S17 (sometimes 8D) with an average casino edge of .004% to .005% at TC of 0. I was thinking of running a 1-16 spread (max bet at +6 TC), 25$ units with possibly some 50$ unit play. I plan on wonging out when the true count gets to -2 or worse. I use the high-low method with illustrious 18 variations.

So pretty much I've got $10,000 to work with and am planning on playing about 2 hours a week. I have ran simulations and calculated standard deviations and estimated winnings and stuff but I'm just not 100% sure that my numbers are correct and fear this could be a suicide mission.

Anyways just wanted your guys thoughts on this possible plan. I don't plan to start for at least a month so there is some time to tweak or worst case abandon ship!

-Skidep

Most authors said the same thing about bankroll requirement for playing shoe games:

Bankroll should be 2000 units. Spread 1 to 20 units.

For example, if you play $10 minimal table limit, you should spread $10 to $200 (no less than $160) and you need $20,000 bankroll to prevent risk of ruin.

People who start with less than $20,000 BR should wong in when true count is +2 and wong out at negative count until their BR is sufficient.

 

[Bojack1]

Ya my ROR would be pretty high but honeslty at this point I just want to play. I've been patient for years and finally I have something to work it's just so hard to hold off even longer. Anyways if my ROR is like 40% which is crazy high that means I have a 40% chance to lose it all before I double it right? I haven't calculated it exaclty yet but I'm working with simulators as we speak to try and figure someting out. Honeslty at this point I would be down to take those odds. I just figure if I get lucky on this first little mission and double that 10 grand then I'm set and would be able to play more conservatively with a normal ROR.

If you have been patient for years, why be impatient now when it becomes critical to employ discipline? Card counting is not a get rich quick scheme. If you are really aware of the skills needed to play with an advantage, then you must know throwing money out there wishing for good luck against better judgement is a foolish idea. There is an old saying about wishing for things: Hold out your hands and fill one with wishes granted and the other with sh*t, see which one fills up first.

 

[sagefr0g]

Ya my ROR would be pretty high but honeslty at this point I just want to play. I've been patient for years and finally I have something to work it's just so hard to hold off even longer. Anyways if my ROR is like 40% which is crazy high that means I have a 40% chance to lose it all before I double it right? I haven't calculated it exaclty yet but I'm working with simulators as we speak to try and figure someting out. Honeslty at this point I would be down to take those odds. I just figure if I get lucky on this first little mission and double that 10 grand then I'm set and would be able to play more conservatively with a normal ROR.

don't mean to be nasty, but i'm not gonna mince words here.
you sir are way, way off base with respect to just wanting to play and your disregard for risk with respect to your hard earned money.
don't get me wrong, we all have plenty of respect for a fresh new horse just raring to go, jumping at the gate, lol. kudos, but!!!!......... don't be an action junkie, never let impatience trump the wise action of only playing when you have an advantage with a safe risk margin.
if you do indeed step into the arena of gambling you will need to exercise patience and respect for the odds every step of the way. one of the best pro's i've known told me, "if you are bored you are doing it right".
try this, exchange your desire for 'just wanting to play' with a desire for finding an advantage that is relatively risk free.

 

[kewljason]

Ya my ROR would be pretty high but honeslty at this point I just want to play. I've been patient for years and finally I have something to work it's just so hard to hold off even longer. Anyways if my ROR is like 40% which is crazy high that means I have a 40% chance to lose it all before I double it right? I haven't calculated it exaclty yet but I'm working with simulators as we speak to try and figure someting out. Honeslty at this point I would be down to take those odds. I just figure if I get lucky on this first little mission and double that 10 grand then I'm set and would be able to play more conservatively with a normal ROR.

What you are referring to is known as 'the Hail Mary Bankroll'.

http://www.bj21.com/bj_reference/pages/9719.html

Your style seems uncomfortably familiar. I suspect you have posted here using a different name in the past.

 

[Skidepper]

Haha well tell me if these results mean anything. Using the ROR calculator from qfit.com it says I have a 72.13% chance to succeed in doubling my 10K. This is based on my units being $37.5 (half $25 unit play and half $50 play). I calculated my win per 100 hands to be 2.11 units, std. dev. per 100 hands to be 26.08 units. with a 10K bankroll/37.5 that is 266 unit bankroll with a goal of 532 units. So if I get in 15000 hands on the year it gives me 72.13% chance of success.

These numbers sound pretty accurate to me and I would take a 70+% chance at doubling my bankroll. Am I crazy?:grin:

 

[aslan]

Haha well tell me if these results mean anything. Using the ROR calculator from qfit.com it says I have a 72.13% chance to succeed in doubling my 10K. This is based on my units being $37.5 (half $25 unit play and half $50 play). I calculated my win per 100 hands to be 2.11 units, std. dev. per 100 hands to be 26.08 units. with a 10K bankroll/37.5 that is 266 unit bankroll with a goal of 532 units. So if I get in 15000 hands on the year it gives me 72.13% chance of success.

These numbers sound pretty accurate to me and I would take a 70+% chance at doubling my bankroll. Am I crazy?:grin:

You may answer that yourself, if and when that 28% chance of ruin occurs.

If all that counters wanted was the best of it, they would settle for a 51% chance of doubling their bankroll. Truth is, counters want as near to a sure thing as possible, at least, in terms of the long run. Counters do not fancy themselves as gamblers, although they know that on an individual session by session basis, they are gambling. But being true to their principles, and never deviating from sound card counting practices, they have every reason to believe that in the long run they will emerge victorious.

Your propensity for risk-taking, OTOH, seems indicative of a gambler bent on taking the world by storm or going down in flames--and in either case, isn't it the action, the glamor, the glory of it all? Classic gambling addiction. If your initial judgment as you enter the arena of card counting will be to cast aside recommended RoR guidelines, then you can be sure that as time goes on, having gotten away with it a few times perhaps, just one of these times in your career that 28% will catch up with you and you will find yourself sans bankroll repeating to yourself over and over, "Why did I not listen?" If you think that in the future, when you have augmented your bankroll, you will revert to recommended RoR guidelines, think again--you won't, and you know it. If you can't do it now when you have everything to lose, now when you are not in the heat of battle and cool, sound decision making is easiest, you will not do it later when you have only experienced success doing it the wrong way. You will have trained yourself to go for it. But for card counters, reliance is on mathematical formulation, not anecdotal evidence.

PS--And just starting out, you can be fairly sure that that 28% RoR is really much larger due to the inexperience factor. It presumes perfect basic strategy combined with perfect card counting implementation, including game selection, following prescribed bet spreads, and highly disciplined application of all card counting principles to a T. No steaming, no catch up tactics, no deviations--just boring, methodical application in a cool and collected manner. Boy, have you got a lot to learn. Me, I'm still learning.

 

[sagefr0g]

Haha well tell me if these results mean anything. Using the ROR calculator from qfit.com it says I have a 72.13% chance to succeed in doubling my 10K. This is based on my units being $37.5 (half $25 unit play and half $50 play). I calculated my win per 100 hands to be 2.11 units, std. dev. per 100 hands to be 26.08 units. with a 10K bankroll/37.5 that is 266 unit bankroll with a goal of 532 units. So if I get in 15000 hands on the year it gives me 72.13% chance of success.

These numbers sound pretty accurate to me and I would take a 70+% chance at doubling my bankroll. Am I crazy?:grin:

well if your winrate & standard deviation is correct for the game and method of play then your ROR is ~13.5% or full kelly betting, but that would be for a $37.50 unit i would suppose.
i'm not sure how this half playing $25 units and half playing $50 units would square with some simulation where the play was all a unit of $37.50 as far as the winrate of 2.11units/100hands and standard deviation of 26.08 units, sorta thing.
whatever 15000 hands isn't all that many hands and 7500 hands for a $25 unit and 7500 hands for a $50 units is even less in a statistical sense.
whatever, do you know the N0 for this game?
so again whatever, your numbers may be optimal, but the question becomes is this a practical, sensible plan?
you wondered what pro's would say. you've had two pro players respond.
be aware that full kelly betting where you have this 13.5% ROR is in practice (at least as far as i know) simply not done. again a pro when risking significant money is going to want a really low risk of ruin on the order of 0.1% .
this ten grand you have seems a significant chunk of change for you and it taking a year to come up with another ten grand seems significant as well.

 

[Skidepper]

You may answer that yourself, if and when that 28% chance of ruin occurs.

If all that counters wanted was the best of it, they would settle for a 51% chance of doubling their bankroll. Truth is, counters want as near to a sure thing as possible, at least, in terms of the long run. Counters do not fancy themselves as gamblers, although they know that on an individual session by session basis, they are gambling. But being true to their principles, and never deviating from sound card counting practices, they have every reason to believe that in the long run they will emerge victorious.

Your propensity for risk-taking, OTOH, seems indicative of a gambler bent on taking the world by storm or going down in flames--and in either case, isn't it the action, the glamor, the glory of it all? Classic gambling addiction. If your initial judgment as you enter the arena of card counting will be to cast aside recommended RoR guidelines, then you can be sure that as time goes on, having gotten away with it a few times perhaps, just one of these times in your career that 28% will catch up with you and you will find yourself sans bankroll repeating to yourself over and over, "Why did I not listen?" If you think that in the future, when you have augmented your bankroll, you will revert to recommended RoR guidelines, think again--you won't, and you know it. If you can't do it now when you have everything to lose, now when you are not in the heat of battle and cool, sound decision making is easiest, you will not do it later when you have only experienced success doing it the wrong way. You will have trained yourself to go for it. But for card counters, reliance is on mathematical formulation, not anecdotal evidence.

PS--And just starting out, you can be fairly sure that that 28% RoR is really much larger due to the inexperience factor. It presumes perfect basic strategy combined with perfect card counting implementation, including game selection, following prescribed bet spreads, and highly disciplined application of all card counting principles to a T. No steaming, no catch up tactics, no deviations--just boring, methodical application in a cool and collected manner. Boy, have you got a lot to learn. Me, I'm still learning.

Beleive me I know there's so much to learn about the card counting world and I love to learn about it. I'm still very young and I've read Blackjack Attack and a few other Blackjack books, done countless hours of practice, training, research, simulations, calculations etc... I know all of this comes no where near the time you all have put in and this is why I truly respect and appreciate all the tips you guys have given me. It's hard once you finally get some cash to not run off to the casino and go for it.

Anyways I haven't really been thinking about this as a profitable business venture where you really don't want any risk involved, more like a way to make some nice $$$$. It does make a lot of sense and I'm sure one day I will get the patience to play that kind of game.

I'm still not sure yet if in a month or two I will take on the tables with my 30% (or more realistically 40-50%) ROR but if I do and I get killed beleive me I'll be reporting back so you all can tell me "I TOLD YOU SO!".

Thanks again guys for the words of wisdom, especially you aslan! You really helped me get my head on straight and I feel I have a much better sense of what I'm getting myself into now. For the time being I'm going to get myself 100% ready for casino play and we'll see what happens!

-Skidep

 

[MeWin$]

Ok,

Ok, do your thing, and hopefully youll win.

How about just playing with 5 dollar units for a month or so?

We all think we're perfect players but we arent and i know i made many mistakes starting out so maybe others did too.

Good luck