BR requirement...

[ZeeBabar]

When I started into this game, I was told that having a significant BR and determining ROR was critical and to keep working towards that goal (of a large BR). I started out with a $15k BR, put wins back into the BR for the most part. I have a BR of about $40k now.

Now, I know my comfort levels and plans. That is, I would be playing $25 DD games with a spread of 1-7 and sometimes playing $10 min. 6 deck games with a spread of about 1-16. I wish to generate $25 k in a year.

One reason for asking the question below is to determine what BR to maintain so I can use excess winnings on other stuff (vacation, gifts, my bucket list etc.). When could I stop adding to the BR?

What BR do. I need?

How many hours of play can be expected at my betting levels to win $25k a year?

If you are good in math, please help.

 

[KewlJ]

Zee, congratulations on growing your bankroll from an initial starting point of $15,000 to $40,000. That is great. I am assuming you have outgrown the shoebox. (humor...don't get upset).

However.....you have been asking these same questions and kind of questions for several years now on multiple sites. And you have received the same answer over and over. Buy the software and figure it for yourself! When some one is to the point that their play is serious enough that they want to play for a living or supplement their income, they NEED to invest in the software. It is a tool of the trade. It is an investment that will pay for itself many, many times over. Don't continue to ask others to do the work for you.

I don't say this to be mean, but it is increasingly hard for anyone to take you seriously, when you don't appear to take this seriously enough to make the small investment necessary. That just tells everyone that you aren't serious. You participate on a site with the guy that has the best software and he's right there to answer any questions and address any problems that you may have. Buy the damn software Zee!

 

[ZeeBabar]

Kewlj, I bought the software but only know how to use it for optimal betting. I went on Norms site and it has a Risk calculator that suggests BR requirements. Using a $25 unit, I put in the desired end result as $50k or 2000 units with a 98% probability and the end result showed I needed about 9oo units or a BR of about $23k. That seems ridiculously low BR and it does not tell how many rounds I might need to play to get to that result.

I ask the question expecting an answer...such as needing a BR of $40K for DD and $30k for the lower minimum, greater spread 6 deck. Most of the time, the folks on the other forums do not answer me, they just try to humiliate or they tell me to buy software or read BJ3. I am computer illiterate, can only do emails and web browsing.

 

[Meistro]

just sim the games and see what your hourly rate is. exact conditions with regards to penetration and rules and rounds per hour will determine your winrate.

 

[Meistro]

if i had to guess i'd say 500

 

[21forme]

Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a man to fish and you feed him for a lifetime

 

[Ryemo]

Agree with KJ and 21. Zee, you have the software. Use it!

Here's what I do: I take CVCX and SIM the game I plan to play. I choose the unit size and the spread I'd like to employ. My goal is to keep my RoR below 3%. Many times I can keep it below 1%. If the game I simmed puts my RoR above my comfort threshold, then I just make adjustments to my unit size or to my spread. I keep making the necessary adjustments until I reach a RoR that I'm comfortable with. Now all you have to do is play! Log in as many hours as you can! That's it. This isn't rocket science.

You want to spend your winnings, correct? I saw that you just made an identical post on another site. Well here's what you do: after you take a trip, sim the game so you can calculate your EV for the trip. Make sure your spending don't exceed your EV. And whatever you calculate your EV to be, I would deduct a fixed percentage from your calculated EV to make room for any potential errors or cover play. And let's assume you have a big winning trip... you should still not spend more than what your EV was.

Now let's put this question to rest for good.

 

[ZeeBabar]

Thanks Ryemo, I am going to try it. All I have done so far is to put in information about the game I was going to play and get optimal bets determined.

In your kind explanation, you indicate how to get EV for the game and see how I did. However, it's not exactly what I had in mind. I was trying to determine what total BR I should keep and the balance I should spend. For example, if a BR of $30k is sufficient for the games I will be playing in 2017, I could immediately do something with the excess $10k (whether paying off a car or taking the spouse to Hawaii). If the BR figure I need to play those DD and 6 deck games in 2017 is $50k, then I have to postpone such spending until I have a BR greater than $50k.

It's frustrating that I cannot know how much of a BR I need to play the DD and 6deck games in MO and MS.

 

[Meistro]

spend as little as possible just put all your money towards increasing your bankroll until you have all the money in the world

 

[jimmybond007]

Its all about how comfortable with your ROR. If 30k is enough to maintain a low enough ROR for your games then by all means spend the 10k if you want. Keep in mind an oversized bankroll relative to your stakes you are currently playing is a very good cushion, if you start losing alot of money your ROR is still low and you wont need to resize. Where if you spend 25% of your bankroll, a bad downswing could raise your ROR high enough where you might need to consider lowering your bets to maintain low ROR.

 

[sagefr0g]

@ ZeeBabar,
not a dumb question, in my dumb opinion, and not so erroneously redundant, either. consider the excerpts below from : https://www.blackjackinfo.com/community/threads/an-introduction-to-card-counting.14297/#post-490721
"c. Bankroll Requirements and Optimum Betting
Strictly speaking (and correctly for that matter!!!) your bankroll is the cash worth value of everything you own (property, cars, bank accounts, stocks, pocket change) minus the total debt that you owe. However most people have a more conservative definition of a bankroll and allocate only a certain fraction of their total wealth to play blackjack. Conventionally, you divide your bankroll into a certain number of betting units. The number of betting units in your bankroll will depend on the game you are playing AND the risk of ruin (probability of going bankrupt before reaching a certain goal) that you accept to play with. For instance, let’s say you have a game where you bankroll consists of 800 betting units and your risk of ruin is 10%, if you find a better game you can divide your bankroll into 500 betting units (increasing your bet sizes, i.e winning more) while having the same risk.
You can find your bankroll requirements by using a blackjack simulator or checking some reliable tables (Blackjack Attack), but for a typical average game with a 10% risk of ruin a bankroll of about 1000 units is what you should expect to have.
Optimum betting is betting according to your advantage (True Count!) that leads to large winnings while limiting the total amount of risk. Optimal betting will often lead to fractional number of betting units, so will have to round your bets to simplify them. For instance, at a True Count of +2, the optimum bet might 2.34 units so if your betting unit is $10 you will have to make a simplified bet of $25 instead of $23.4"
&
"g. Playing Blackjack for a Living
This is a question that certainly crosses the mind of every person who aspires to become a card counter .Sadly only a few have a clear conception of the ins and outs of playing blackjack professionally. It is very distressing when I see twenty year olds dropping out of college to go and play blackjack with a 5000 dollar bankroll thinking they will be making 6 figures a year! With that bankroll size and for a typical game the hourly expectation value is about $8 which they can probably make working at McDonalds with much less hassle. There is an old French saying that loosely translates into “It takes a million to make a million”. In other words to make big bucks playing blackjack you will need to have big stacks of cash.
Besides the bankroll requirement, there is no question that the games conditions have deteriorated over the years, so you might have to travel a lot to find those games that were around the corner. Dealing with obnoxious or annoying people at the tables for many hours straight, playing cat and mouse with the casino…
Always keep in mind card counting is not gambling so you will not get the rush that people get when gambling, so at one point you might find yourself popping Prozac like you would pop Skittles!"

so again, not dumb & not redundant. none of us, unless we reach a point of genuine financial security ever quit pondering such matters. your redundancy of questions potentially yields a plethora of options of answers. having a plethora of options is a good thing. wisdom in decision making becomes your task. in other words in the final analysis, its your decision when and where to fish. sorry, but i can't answer your question.
edit: your consideration regarding the time it may take to accomplish your goals is imho an astute and very important question.