Curbing volatility

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#1
In keep volatility down it seems like you have to usually sacrifice a little EV. Playing two hands seems like it might be an exception because you can get more on the table and I don't believe it increases your volatility. I know playing 1/2 Kelly is supposed to help a lot and I will be studying the RA indices in BJA3. One thing I do is to not double as much as the count rises unless I have a little margin of error over the departure index, a buffer of sorts. My sole goal at this point is to get in the hands to reach my NO and stay in the black as it helps my moral, watch the results and build a BR. Does anyone else have any good tips for keeping down the roller coaster bumps besides the wong in.out which I do as much as I can?
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#3
Dopple said:
My sole goal at this point is to get in the hands to reach my NO and stay in the black as it helps my moral, watch the results and build a BR.
Are you currently underfunded and either overbetting with higher risk or you are not spreading enough? If the answer is yes to either of those two choices you should practice your game at home while saving money working until you can play the way you are supposed to.

Dopple said:
Does anyone else have any good tips for keeping down the roller coaster bumps besides the wong in.out which I do as much as I can?
You mentioned that by staying in the black it helps you morally. You better get used to the rides that you encounter because there will be plenty. On certain days many of your big bets will go down and you will take it on the chin. What are you supposed to do beat yourself up for betting correctly? F--- no you roll with the punches as it is just one irrelevant session. You will be properly bankrolled, and have learned enough about the game, and money management skills to know how to take a few punches while hitting back big time.

On the game itself, try to find one that has the late surrender option, which is very valuable to a card counter.
 
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Dopple

Well-Known Member
#4
Thanks to both. I am not sure morally is the correct word but I am underfunded. I know about the roller coaster and can ride it. I am sure I know what to look for but it never hurts to go over the basics. I am kind of over-engineering my endeavors but so be it. It looks to me like good pen might be a decent trade off for "wonging" all the time. Whats the harm with only going half Kelly? I now finally know that overheating is how they get you.
 

Hell'nBack

Well-Known Member
#5
BoSox said:
Are you currently underfunded and either overbetting with higher risk or you are not spreading enough? If the answer is yes to either of those two choices you should practice your game at home while saving money working until you can play the way you are supposed to.



You mentioned that by staying in the black it helps you morally. You better get used to the rides that you encounter because there will be plenty. On certain days many of your big bets will go down and you will take it on the chin. What are you supposed to do beat yourself up for betting correctly? F--- no you roll with the punches as it is just one irrelevant session. You will be properly bankrolled, and have learned enough about the game, and money management skills to know how to take a few punches while hitting back big time.

On the game itself, try to find one that has the late surrender option, which is very valuable to a card counter.

Shoes are where LS shines. Pitch games not so much. I only play LS or pitch with decent rules or conditions.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#6
JohnCrover said:
Play games with liberal rules and deep pen.
John, yes everyone looks for games with deep cuts and good rules hopfully with little heat, but what coinsides with good games? More opportunities for higher counts resulting with more large bets, more doubles, and splitting all a good thing but those games also has more volatility and the people who want to take advantage of that better be properly bankrolled, while understanding the risk involved. Dopple admits to being underfunded, which a short bad swing and he could be temporarily out of the game.

Dopple said:
It looks to me like good pen might be a decent trade off for "wonging" all the time.
No they are not the same things. Right now Wonging should be very important to everyone especially someone underfunded. Remember the better the pen "always a good thing" the more the volatility another good thing for someone playing with a low risk factor.
 

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#7
I am actually about as funded as I set my mind to be. Getting my feet wet in the water is the best way for me to get back in the game, and I enjoy it.
I think if one has been wong ing a fair amount it is best to not jump right back into play all as it could bite you. I am going to go slow, see how I handle the bumps then after I climb the hill a ways put a bit more gas into the ride. You get the gist. I appreciate the feed.
 
#8
Games with deeper penetration have a lower N0
BoSox said:
John, yes everyone looks for games with deep cuts and good rules hopfully with little heat, but what coinsides with good games? More opportunities for higher counts resulting with more large bets, more doubles, and splitting all a good thing but those games also has more volatility and the people who want to take advantage of that better be properly bankrolled, while understanding the risk involved. Dopple admits to being underfunded, which a short bad swing and he could be temporarily out of the game.



No they are not the same things. Right now Wonging should be very important to everyone especially someone underfunded. Remember the better the pen "always a good thing" the more the volatility another good thing for someone playing with a low risk factor.
Worse penetration lowers volatility?...
 

Dopple

Well-Known Member
#10
NO is the point where your EV, based on hands played, is equal to one SD, based on hands played, variance and avg bet if I am correct.
 

BoSox

Well-Known Member
#11
JohnCrover said:
Games with deeper penetration have a lower N0
John you just posted that above quote in post #8 with a followup answer by me. Please remove that line as I did not respond to that quote which is an insinuation that I did. My response in post #6 was to the following quote in post #2 by you:

JohnCrover said:
Play games with liberal rules and deep pen.
 
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DSchles

Well-Known Member
#15
Dopple said:
It is in BJA3 for sure but a good topic I bet. Which has better ev: 5.5/6 DAS or 4.5/ DAS LS on the H17 game?
That isn't even a remotely close comparison. You can't trade an entire deck of penetration just for surrender. A much better question would have been 5.5/6 DAS vs. 5.0/6 DAS LS, which is much closer. But 5.5/6 still wins.

Don
 
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Dopple

Well-Known Member
#16
Don, again I appreciate your precise data. As detailed as BJA3 is, it is nice to see you are generous with your personality in the book. I think it makes the reading less dry and adds a very important human element to your landmark study. Thanks to Talmadge also.
 

21forme

Well-Known Member
#17
Dopple said:
It is in BJA3 for sure but a good topic I bet. Which has better ev: 5.5/6 DAS or 4.5/ DAS LS on the H17 game?
I believe I know to which casinos you refer (which we will not mention on the forum). The better pen game also has a lot more tables available, so easy to jump around when the count goes south. However, the better pen place has 3x higher minimums, so if you're BR constrained, it may be better to play the LS game.
 
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