I saw this question posed recently, somewhere. Somebody wanted to know how big their bet spread should be in a 6 deck, BJ 3-2, dealer hits soft 17, double allowed after split, no surrender game with 75 to 80% penetration with a $15 minimum bet. Somebody said a 1 to 15 spread to make money. Is this correct? After all, we are told perfect basic strategy gets one close to break even. If one is close to break even can one not make money unless they spread at least 15 times their minimum bet? Something seems a tad askew here.
Figuring bet spread
- Thread starter JJP
- Start date
One thing that came to mind when I read what the OP was asking about... As Don mentioned, his book and simulation software will help you understand a ton more about bet spreads, win rates, RoR, etc. One thing in particular that I thought about which might not immediately jump out to some people when they start thinking about the concepts I just mentioned above: if your bet spread isn`t big enough, your RoR can actually be higher! Emphasis on "can" of course. That`s one of the many reasons you really have to analyze how you`re constructing your bet spread though. It may sound counter-intuitive at first because you`re risking/betting a bigger percentage of your bankroll with a bigger spread. However, if you`re not betting enough when you have higher advantages/TCs, you may not be making enough money in those instances to carry your bankroll for longer than it would have gone when you`re losing a lot at lower advantage situations/TCs.
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While I don't think that is too likely given a zero sum game, if you look at the negative sum game that is being a professional blackjack player (since you must take expenses out of your bankroll) this point is even more poignant. But the important thing to understand is that your optimal bet is bankroll * advantage * .75 and the table minimum plays no part in that equation, although you may for reasons of heat choose a table minimum that gives you a relatively modest spread.
Don,
I have the Qfit software.
I had interpreted the "making money" original comment to mean one could become profitable once they realized the 1 to 15 spread; I think they probably meant "significant money/return" with at least a 1 to 15 spread. If one couldn't achieve profitability with anything less than a 1 to 15 spread, I would probably give up the game.
I have the Qfit software.
I had interpreted the "making money" original comment to mean one could become profitable once they realized the 1 to 15 spread; I think they probably meant "significant money/return" with at least a 1 to 15 spread. If one couldn't achieve profitability with anything less than a 1 to 15 spread, I would probably give up the game.
Many valid comments. It's interesting that many of the opinion answers you get on the boards are skewed depending on the nature of the player giving the answer. I don't mean that in a bad way, but for the game described, using hilo full indices you might expect about $48/hour with 80% pen. That may be fine for a recreational AP, but not quite sufficient for a pro. Is EV of $48 making money? Only you can decide that. The point about BR is also relevant. A rec(kless?) player might play 1-15 at a $15 min table with a $10K BR but they should be wary of a 25% RoR. No pro would do that. Many knowledgeable rec players wouldn't do that either. Are you really entering a game to "make money" at $48/hr if there is a 1:3 chance you'll go broke? Once broke, you'll be making money by more conventional means. "Would you like fries with that, Ma'am?"...
To me (a rec player) that $15 game is not comfortable with a $10K BR. Spreading about 1-6 provides the minimum RoR for that game on a 10K BR. As you spread lower or higher RoR increases and even at 1-6 you run almost 17% RoR. Find it as a $10 game and it makes all the difference on the downside, though the EV is reduced. I'd rather play with under 10% RoR and have a lower EV, build up the BR and then increase the spread. But that's my opinion.
Btw, the HE on basic strategy for that game is about .4%. So flat betting $15/hand using BS you'd expect to lose $6/hr. Surely, that is not making money. Of course, you could bet more...and you're still not making money!
To me (a rec player) that $15 game is not comfortable with a $10K BR. Spreading about 1-6 provides the minimum RoR for that game on a 10K BR. As you spread lower or higher RoR increases and even at 1-6 you run almost 17% RoR. Find it as a $10 game and it makes all the difference on the downside, though the EV is reduced. I'd rather play with under 10% RoR and have a lower EV, build up the BR and then increase the spread. But that's my opinion.
Btw, the HE on basic strategy for that game is about .4%. So flat betting $15/hand using BS you'd expect to lose $6/hr. Surely, that is not making money. Of course, you could bet more...and you're still not making money!