For everyone out there, I finally analyzed everything about heads up play and every single combination of what's actually optimal when playing heads up as well as with others in regards to 1 hand vs 2 hands.
First off, which might surprise people is that 'a higher spread heads up isn't exactly more optimal'. Now that might not make sense at first but let me explain with the numbers. Playing 2 hands throughout the shoe off the top at 0 and -1 before you wong out OUTPERFORMS 1 HAND at 0 and -1 and then spreading to 2 hands at +1 and higher. So even if someone is going from 1x10 off the top to 2x200(1-40 spread), the 2x10 to 2x200(1-20 spread) WILL OUTPERFORM on every metric other than risk(ROR) where it increases a smaller percentage. That's right, a smaller spread heads up will actually outperform 1 hand at negatives and then spreading to 2 hands and that's where I went wrong in PA. I would always play 1 hand and then move to 2 hands in plus counts. The win rate, N0, and SCORE all drastically improve by playing 2 hands off the top and throughout all the positives. With that being said, in terms of N0, the higher the minimum and the tighter the spread, 2 hands at 0 and -1 will NOT outperform the 1 hand approach at 0 and -1, So for example 2x25-2x200 will not outperform 1x25-2x200 in terms of N0. But if the minimums are lower, 2x10-2x200 will outperform 1x10-2x200.
Secondly, when you play with others, funnily enough, the metrics all improve when you do the opposite. Playing 1 hand when playing with others improves the N0, lowers the risk and improves the SCORE. The 2 hand approach at 0 and -1 still outperforms on the win rate, but the only time 2 hands playing with others at 0 and -1 would outperform the 1 hand approach at 0 and -1 on any metric would be the N0 if you're spreading huge but it still wont be by much. So as a general rule of thumb when playing with others, it's best to play with 1 hand at 0 or -1 or better yet just backcount and sit out every negative expectation bet.
So to summarize, 2 hands at 0 and -1 heads up is the optimal move over 1 hand at 0 and -1 IF the minimums are low and your spread is high. In regards to playing with others, playing with 1 hand at 0 and -1 is the optimal move unless you spread huge where then even 2 hands at negatives when playing with others will outperform on N0. In regards to win rate, 2 hands at 0 and -1 will always outperform in any scenario regardless if heads up or playing with others. ROR will always be higher as well when playing 2 hands at 0 and -1 in any scenario. N0 and SCORE is where the 1 hand vs 2 hands at 0 and -1 whether heads up or with others is the difference.
Sorry if I made anyone's head spin with this, but I finally took a hard long look at all of this.
First off, which might surprise people is that 'a higher spread heads up isn't exactly more optimal'. Now that might not make sense at first but let me explain with the numbers. Playing 2 hands throughout the shoe off the top at 0 and -1 before you wong out OUTPERFORMS 1 HAND at 0 and -1 and then spreading to 2 hands at +1 and higher. So even if someone is going from 1x10 off the top to 2x200(1-40 spread), the 2x10 to 2x200(1-20 spread) WILL OUTPERFORM on every metric other than risk(ROR) where it increases a smaller percentage. That's right, a smaller spread heads up will actually outperform 1 hand at negatives and then spreading to 2 hands and that's where I went wrong in PA. I would always play 1 hand and then move to 2 hands in plus counts. The win rate, N0, and SCORE all drastically improve by playing 2 hands off the top and throughout all the positives. With that being said, in terms of N0, the higher the minimum and the tighter the spread, 2 hands at 0 and -1 will NOT outperform the 1 hand approach at 0 and -1, So for example 2x25-2x200 will not outperform 1x25-2x200 in terms of N0. But if the minimums are lower, 2x10-2x200 will outperform 1x10-2x200.
Secondly, when you play with others, funnily enough, the metrics all improve when you do the opposite. Playing 1 hand when playing with others improves the N0, lowers the risk and improves the SCORE. The 2 hand approach at 0 and -1 still outperforms on the win rate, but the only time 2 hands playing with others at 0 and -1 would outperform the 1 hand approach at 0 and -1 on any metric would be the N0 if you're spreading huge but it still wont be by much. So as a general rule of thumb when playing with others, it's best to play with 1 hand at 0 or -1 or better yet just backcount and sit out every negative expectation bet.
So to summarize, 2 hands at 0 and -1 heads up is the optimal move over 1 hand at 0 and -1 IF the minimums are low and your spread is high. In regards to playing with others, playing with 1 hand at 0 and -1 is the optimal move unless you spread huge where then even 2 hands at negatives when playing with others will outperform on N0. In regards to win rate, 2 hands at 0 and -1 will always outperform in any scenario regardless if heads up or playing with others. ROR will always be higher as well when playing 2 hands at 0 and -1 in any scenario. N0 and SCORE is where the 1 hand vs 2 hands at 0 and -1 whether heads up or with others is the difference.
Sorry if I made anyone's head spin with this, but I finally took a hard long look at all of this.
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