- Thread starter gbbg
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gbbg said:

At what tc high opt 2 will start having advantage and which tc I should raise my bet. I have a hard time finding any info about this online.

Thanks in advance

Thanks in advance

The advantage at TC +2 is small. For you to consider that as the point to raise your bet you should be playing S17, DAS, LS game. The reason you don't raise your bet at a small advantage is the equation for optimal bet includes EV.

Your optimal bet is: (Kelly fraction)*BR*EV/ variance.

When EV is tiny like .0004 for H17,DAS at TC +2 or H17,DAS,LS advantage of .0014 you want to wait for TC +3 to raise your bet. Your advantage will be about .5% at TC +3 with a range of .34% for H17,DAS to .68% for S17,DAS,LS (the corresponding range of advantage at TC +2 is .04% to .34 %). For S17,DAS,LS a small increase at TC +2 can be warranted by the sim data. Like if you are betting $15 you can bet $25. But there are other reasons to raise your bet.

Pros don't use their .5% advantage bet as your unit bet for no reason. That is when it becomes time to start ramping your bet rather than making a waiting bet. By using that as a unit, when you state your spread it reflects what you make at advantage bets without including waiting bets. Your SCORE will be highest (lowest n-zero) if you wait to TC +3 to raise your bet. That says the 0.3% (30 cents per $100 in EV) increase in hourly EV isn't worth enough to warrant raising your bet based on the added variance raising your bet brings.

The only reason to raise your bet at TC +2 is so your jump to your bet at TC +3 isn't too drastic. From a statistical, I am playing on a computer and don't need to worry about heat, standpoint there is no reason to raise your bet. But from a more practical standpoint of playing in a casino where heat is a factor, you should consider raising your bet to about half of you TC +3 bet when you get to TC +2. That way your bet moves are not too large too often attracting heat.

It is really bad to be guessing about ramps. Software generates the optimal ramp for your count and playing conditions and you modify that suggested ramp to make it practical for casino use concerning heat and other factors that are not a part of simulation. You should get the software and learn how to use it or ask someone else that has it to generate ramps for you.

Your optimal bet is: (Kelly fraction)*BR*EV/ variance.

When EV is tiny like .0004 for H17,DAS at TC +2 or H17,DAS,LS advantage of .0014 you want to wait for TC +3 to raise your bet. Your advantage will be about .5% at TC +3 with a range of .34% for H17,DAS to .68% for S17,DAS,LS (the corresponding range of advantage at TC +2 is .04% to .34 %). For S17,DAS,LS a small increase at TC +2 can be warranted by the sim data. Like if you are betting $15 you can bet $25. But there are other reasons to raise your bet.

Pros don't use their .5% advantage bet as your unit bet for no reason. That is when it becomes time to start ramping your bet rather than making a waiting bet. By using that as a unit, when you state your spread it reflects what you make at advantage bets without including waiting bets. Your SCORE will be highest (lowest n-zero) if you wait to TC +3 to raise your bet. That says the 0.3% (30 cents per $100 in EV) increase in hourly EV isn't worth enough to warrant raising your bet based on the added variance raising your bet brings.

The only reason to raise your bet at TC +2 is so your jump to your bet at TC +3 isn't too drastic. From a statistical, I am playing on a computer and don't need to worry about heat, standpoint there is no reason to raise your bet. But from a more practical standpoint of playing in a casino where heat is a factor, you should consider raising your bet to about half of you TC +3 bet when you get to TC +2. That way your bet moves are not too large too often attracting heat.

It is really bad to be guessing about ramps. Software generates the optimal ramp for your count and playing conditions and you modify that suggested ramp to make it practical for casino use concerning heat and other factors that are not a part of simulation. You should get the software and learn how to use it or ask someone else that has it to generate ramps for you.

Last edited:

Since when???

"Your optimal bet is: (Kelly fraction)*BR*(EV^2)/ variance."

Surely not. Why would you say that? The EV in the above equation has no reason to be squared. Suppose I play full Kelly with a $10,000 bank and variance is, say, 1.33. Suppose my edge is 1.33%. What would you want my optimal bet to be? The correct answer is, of course, ($10,000 x 0.0133)/1.33 = $100. Would you prefer to claim that it's $1.33??

What ARE you thinking??

Don

Dummy said:

Good catch Don. Nothing gets by you. I just looked up the two spot formula which multiplies by two because you play two spots and didn't put my glasses on and assumed it was a "^" instead of a "*". I thought it was wrong but I looked it up as a double check. I should have put my glasses on.

xengrifter said:

Huh? Say what?

Dummy said:

The formula in the excel spreadsheet had (EV (blurry character) 2) in it rather than EV1 + EV2 for a 2 spot bet, since the EV for both spots is the same. If I write two times something it is always 2*x and when I write something squared it is always x^2. So the order of the "x" and the "2" in the spreadsheet formula made me think/assume I saw "^" instead of "*". I thought it seemed wrong but I know the data in excel is tested and right so I went with what I thought I saw in excel rather than memory.

Dummy said:

should have gotten my glasses when I was double checking my memory