Illustrious 18 for a Newcomer

#1
I have read Don Schlesinger's work on the Illustrious 18. I am a newcomer to the card counting world and while I understand the plays and the theory behind deviations from BS, I do not understand what deviation to make. For example, for a multi-deck game BS (from the charts that I have found and please correct me if I am wrong on this) says to surrender with a 16 v 10, but the Illustrious 18 is telling me to do something different, but what?

Maybe I am a complete moron, but I do not understand what strategy deviations to make for each play as Don does not outline them in his text. I guess what I am looking for is for someone to list the strategy deviations as well as to outline what the deviation is (i.e. if you would normally hit, the strategy deviation using the Illustrious 18 would be to X).

Remember, I am an newcomer and I am not looking to be criticized on my lack of knowledge so if anyone is sincerely willing to help please respond.
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#2
None of the I18 involve surrender, so ignore that possibility. (Surrender might be a better play with 16vT, 15vT and 16v9, but the I18 doesn't include surrender.)

Insurance: Insure at +3 or higher.
16vT: Stand at 0 or higher, hit otherwise.
15vT: Stand at +4 or higher, hit otherwise.
TTv5: Split at +5 or higher, stand otherwise.
TTv6: Split at +4 or higher, stand otherwise.
10vT: Double at +4 or higher, hit otherwise.
12v3: Stand at +2 or higher, hit otherwise.
12v2: Stand at +3 or higher, hit otherwise.
11vA: Double at +1 or higher, hit otherwise.
9v2: Double at +1 or higher, hit otherwise.
10vA: Double at +4 or higher, hit otherwise.
9v7: Double at +3 or higher, hit otherwise.
16v9: Stand at +5 or higher, hit otherwise.
13v2: Stand at -1 or higher, hit otherwise.
12v4: Stand at 0 or higher, hit otherwise.
12v5: Stand at -2 or higher, hit otherwise.
12v6: Stand at -1 or higher, hit otherwise.
13v3: Stand at -2 or higher, hit otherwise.
 

E-town-guy

Well-Known Member
#4
But if the table you play at offers surrender and BS says to surrender then surrender. There are surrender indices in Blackbelt in BJ.
 

gobbledygeek

Well-Known Member
#6
Good info. Could someone clarify a couple of points for me:

5 decks, Dealer hits Soft 17, Allowed Double after Splitting, Only Lose Original Bets on Dealer BJ

1) According to the charts for the above game, 16 v T is already surrender at 0, right? When would we surrender vs hit vs stand?

2) According to the charts for the above game, 11 vs A is already double at 0, right? Isn't this kinda conflicting with I18 info? Should I just hit at -1 and below?


The biggest question I have, which may make the other two moot:

3) Should I adjust my basic strategy play on these indexes if I'm playing against a CSM which usually only deals 1 to 1.5 decks of the 5 decks before reshuffling? I've seen the true count go +/- 1, 2 and rarely 3 in this short time; does a +1 true count have as much worth only 1/2 a deck in as it does 4 decks in? If so, I'm guessing adjust my strategy accordingly on the half dozen or so hands that I would run across (-2 thru +2)? Or not worth it?
 
#7
gobbledygeek said:
Should I adjust my basic strategy play on these indexes if I'm playing against a CSM which usually only deals 1 to 1.5 decks of the 5 decks before reshuffling?
Don't bother with counting except for practice with CSM, you can't get the edge. Find non-CSM games if you are serious about the game. BUT you may surrender on those hands I gave you with no count. zg
 

gobbledygeek

Well-Known Member
#8
So then I take it that a true count has more meaning the more deeply you have penetrated? I'm having a little trouble wrapping my mind around that since the true count is already taking into account number of decks left.
 

E-town-guy

Well-Known Member
#9
Running count/# decks remaining = TC

Since the TC takes into account the position in the deck a TC of +2 means the same at any point in the shoe.
 
#10
gobbledygeek said:
So then I take it that a true count has more meaning the more deeply you have penetrated? I'm having a little trouble wrapping my mind around that since the true count is already taking into account number of decks left.
Yes, but the frequency of high counts won't be sufficient. As a general rule we want 75% penetration in shoes. zg
 

gobbledygeek

Well-Known Member
#11
I understand that the frequency of high counts will be a LOT smaller with little penetration. But if a true count of +2 means the exact same thing regardless of how many cards I'm dealt into a deck, wouldn't the best move for me to do on any given play is to adjust my basic strategy according to the count, even if these variations only pop up once and a while?

For example, if the cards have been reshuffled and I'm sitting at third base and by the time it is me to act on my 12 vs 4 the true count is (albiet unlikely) -1, the best move really is to deviate from BS and hit, right? Sure, in the long run this is probably gonna make very little difference, but a lot of BS hands are pretty close stand vs hit vs double vs surrender so why not always do "the best move"?

I'm thinking the only counter-argument to making the above move is taking the heat from the rest of the players at the table just ain't worth the effort.
 

KenSmith

Administrator
Staff member
#12
You've got it gg. It matters not whether you're in the first hand, or late in a deeply dealt game. Either way, the strategy changes are appropriate when the index number is reached.
 

Sonny

Well-Known Member
#13
gobbledygeek said:
I understand that the frequency of high counts will be a LOT smaller with little penetration.
Right, but the results are very dramatic. Instead of getting 30 advantageous hands per hour you may only find 2 or less. On top of that, you will probably never see a count that gives you more than a 1% advantage. You are playing through all the negative counts, rarely seeing a positive one, and NEVER making a max bet (or even a medium sized bet). Since you are always resetting your count at zero (or whatever for unbalanced counts) then the TC will rarely fluctuate much in the first few rounds of a shoe game. You will playing at a TC of zero (and losing money) almost all the time.

gobbledygeek said:
But if a true count of +2 means the exact same thing regardless of how many cards I'm dealt into a deck, wouldn't the best move for me to do on any given play is to adjust my basic strategy according to the count, even if these variations only pop up once and a while?
Yes, that is correct. Even though you won’t see many counts outside of the -1 to +1 range you should still deviate from BS as the TC dictates.

-Sonny-
 

gobbledygeek

Well-Known Member
#14
Thanks for the info.

The one thing that still confuses me is whether this I18 is good for 5 decks, hit soft 17, double after split, original bet lost only; 11 vs A is already a double down using BS, why the +1 index? Does anyone know the answer to that?

As for surrendering, I think I'll just do the regular BS for this game (15 v 10/A, 16 vs 9/10/A, 17 vs A, 88 vs A).

BTW: I just play for entertainment and flat bet the minimum $5 at my casino, but I thought I might as well play it as best I could. So far I've been extremely lucky, up 2.0 bets per hour over 60 hours playing only BS. I'm just gonna keep playing till I eventually go down to 0. Any guesses to when this'll be? Ha, I'll post it when I do. :)
 
#15
gobbledygeek said:
The one thing that still confuses me is whether this I18 is good for 5 decks, hit soft 17, double after split, original bet lost only; 11 vs A is already a double down using BS, why the +1 index? Does anyone know the answer to that? I'm just gonna keep playing till I eventually go down to 0. Any guesses to when this'll be? Ha, I'll post it when I do. :)
YES. its good. As for when your be back to zero - probably after your next session! zg
 

gobbledygeek

Well-Known Member
#16
Ha, it'll take me 12 maximum losing sessions in a row to go back down to 0, I have a $50 session limit. It's nice to know that I have at the very least 12 sessions on the house to come! :laugh:
 
#17
In statistical REALITY all seemingly seperate sessions a actually one single session. Whats the difference if there is a day's pause, or an hour, or a single shoe-shuffle pause between sessions? zg
 

gobbledygeek

Well-Known Member
#18
I understand that, but I find there is still a psychological advantage of setting a loss limit for a session. I also have other psychological tricks that ease my mind (never playing dollar/50cent chips returned for blackjacks/surrenders and instead putting them on my take home pile thus limiting session losses; hopefully eventually getting to a point in a session when I only play with $20, adding any earned extra to my take home pile; etc.). I totally realize these little tricks have no mathematical advantage whatsoever in the life long single session of blackjack. But I also know I'm gonna be dead in 100 years and yet that reality doesn't stop me from foolishly enjoying life's sessional highs! :joker:
 

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#20
I Understand

Oops,,,,I think I addressed a reply to the wrong member here. Upon rereading, I think that GG is probably counting...Right?
 
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