Index number for splitting 10s and other pairs.

Ferretnparrot

Well-Known Member
#1
I had the rare oportunity to get my ten split on, it was pretty juicy, this time I had the oportunity to resplit, and then again, and then the dealer stopped me at which point I got a bit upset but im over it now.

Thinking about it now, I know that the edge from splitting tens is pretty chunky, so Im wondering if a casinos limitation on splitting hands to 2,3, or 4 hands has a dramatic effect on the index numbers for splitting tens, and for that matter other hands where index numbers apply to splitting

Since the most common rule variations are split 2x to 3 hands, and 3 times to 4 hands, I ask this question.... Are the index numbers signifigantly different for the two games?
 

UK-21

Well-Known Member
#2
Isn't the whole point of splitting 10s, and turning a highly probable winning hand into two highly probable winning hands, to do just that and get the money?

Even at high counts, there must come a point where having been dealt more 10s, and havng say two hands of 20, splitting them again will mean the liklihood/probability of ending up with several hands that aren't 20 will increase? Personally, I can't see any merit in paying for the priviledge of turning a 20 into a 17. And of course, there is the consideration that the more 10s that you receive and split, the less are left in the deck to bust the dealers 5 or 6.

I think I'd only be inclined to split tens a further time for every +TC click over the start point for doing so (TC+4/5?).

As it happens, as I don't play too much, I've never actually had a situation where the count was so high it warranted the split. I live in hope.
 
#3
Ferretnparrot said:
...Since the most common rule variations are split 2x to 3 hands, and 3 times to 4 hands, I ask this question.... Are the index numbers signifigantly different for the two games?
No, the index numbers don't vary at all. If they don't let you split again, they don't let you split again. No reason not to do it the first time.
 
#4
Ferretnparrot said:
Im wondering if a casinos limitation on splitting hands to 2,3, or 4 hands has a dramatic effect on the index numbers for splitting tens,
See ZGI page 11 >>
my top-bet 10s get split at a higher true count
typically than the strict EV-based indices suggest,
thus a bit more ‘risk-averse’… and as the number
of splits increases, my index rises higher into RA territory.
 
#5
zengrifter said:
See ZGI page 11 >>
my top-bet 10s get split at a higher true count
typically than the strict EV-based indices suggest,
thus a bit more ‘risk-averse’… and as the number
of splits increases, my index rises higher into RA territory.
Do you just self-limit the number of 10-splits, in consideration of the covariance of all your resulting hands relative to the dealer's hand?
 
#6
Automatic Monkey said:
Do you just self-limit the number of 10-splits, in consideration of the covariance of all your resulting hands relative to the dealer's hand?
No. If they will allow up to 4, all I figure in to it is an incresingly higher index. zg
 
#7
zengrifter said:
No. If they will allow up to 4, all I figure in to it is an incresingly higher index. zg
Maybe it would work better to do the first split at the regular index, and raise your index for each additional split. Of course the count will be coming down every time you split 10's; often when I do it the third 10 drops my index down to the point where I shouldn't.
 

Ferretnparrot

Well-Known Member
#8
I can see how risk related index numbers woudl be affected, Im more of a maximum EV kinda guy, dont you think that since there is a high probibility of being dealt another ten on one of the two split hands, that the ability to split to a 3rd, and then 4th hand would lower the index number for the first split assuming you didnt limit yourself and always split to the maximum number of hands?

There should be an average gain from drawing on 10, so lets call it Y
There is an aveareg gain froim standing on 20 lets call it X

When splitting 10s to two hands an index of Z will make Y+Y>X but if occasionally you can receive Y+Y+Y......obviously Y+Y+Y > Y+Y so the avrage gain from splitting should be higher

Y+Y+Y+Y>x would be worth more than Y+Y+Y>X which would be worth more than Y+Y>X and since the possibility of Y+Y+Y+Y only exhists if the game allows, I think the index number should be different by some measurable amount, but how big? I think the effect is notable because you have a high probibility of drawing at least one ten for another split especially at high counts where the event takes place.

This also would suggest that if you limit yourself to one split, your index number should be higher than what texts usually suggest since it likely assumes that the resplit is to 4 hands which is most common. In fact, maybe that is my question, is the index number higher if you can only split to 2 hands notibly, is it higher by a signifigant amount?
 

ZenKinG

Well-Known Member
#9
I've recently had a question about the index for 'resplitting' 10's. I believe it was Semyon Dukach that said that the index for 'resplitting' 10s after the first split needs to be higher than the 'original' index. This is interesting to me because my whole time playing blackjack I have just used the original index for all 'resplits' and looking back, everytime I split to 3 or more times with 10's I have had a bad result, especially recently. So now I'm wondering if what some people in this thread as well as Semyon are correct about this, which I'm guessing they are.

So should you RAISE the index when it comes to 'resplitting' your 10s for the 3rd and 4th hands? Hopefully Don can chime in and also make me feel better that I haven't been doing it wrong, but if so, that I haven't costed myself much by just using the original index for all resplits.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#10
Did he offer a reason as to why he thinks that would be the case? Makes little sense to me.

There is an index for making a play. You make the play according to the latest information you have, which includes all cards seen up to the moment the decision is made. So long as you count all the cards in all of your hands, as you split or resplit tens, why would you alter an index just because the tens you are contemplating splitting are part of a split, rather than an original, hand?

Don
 

ZenKinG

Well-Known Member
#11
DSchles said:
Did he offer a reason as to why he thinks that would be the case? Makes little sense to me.

There is an index for making a play. You make the play according to the latest information you have, which includes all cards seen up to the moment the decision is made. So long as you count all the cards in all of your hands, as you split or resplit tens, why would you alter an index just because the tens you are contemplating splitting are part of a split, rather than an original, hand?

Don
That's always been my understanding as well to just use the information at the present time, which is why I was puzzled when he said that and why others in archived threads were saying the same thing. No he did not offer a reason, but if I remember correctly, it was during one of his seminars. Might be a CE or risk averse logic to not resplit to curb the variance, perhaps? Maybe he was using risk averse indices? If one is using risk averse indices, perhaps the choice of 'resplitting' is to use a higher index, i dont know. I know that EV maximizing indices are exactly that 'EV MAXIMIZING' so I don't know why Semyon and others would advise increasing the index other than to curb short term volatility.

I'll continue just using the same index then for resplitting, thanks.
 
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KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#12
Zenking, is this discussion just hypothetical for the sake of discussion, or are you splitting tens on a regular basis?

I ask, because in reading your "venting posts" on several forum it seems you are generating more heat at moderate levels of play that other players myself included that play roughly the same level at the same location (city). Splitting ten could be one reason why, if you are doing so regularly. It really is quite toxic.

For players on the move, playing the slash and burn style and different locations every few days, yeah, splitting tens is part of that, push it to the limit, get all you can and then move on, type strategy. But for players that play a home base type rotation, you would be well advised to eliminate something as toxic as splitting tens. And if you can't bring yourself to eliminate it completely, at least increase the index for doing so, so as to limit the times you split to the absolute most advantageous situations, well above the traditional index numbers.

Just an opinion. :)
 

ZenKinG

Well-Known Member
#13
KewlJ said:
Zenking, is this discussion just hypothetical for the sake of discussion, or are you splitting tens on a regular basis?

I ask, because in reading your "venting posts" on several forum it seems you are generating more heat at moderate levels of play that other players myself included that play roughly the same level at the same location (city). Splitting ten could be one reason why, if you are doing so regularly. It really is quite toxic.

For players on the move, playing the slash and burn style and different locations every few days, yeah, splitting tens is part of that, push it to the limit, get all you can and then move on, type strategy. But for players that play a home base type rotation, you would be well advised to eliminate something as toxic as splitting tens. And if you can't bring yourself to eliminate it completely, at least increase the index for doing so, so as to limit the times you split to the absolute most advantageous situations, well above the traditional index numbers.

Just an opinion. :)
I split 10s every chance I get. I double A9's, double A8's, split 99v7, split 99vA, the whole nine yards. I'm not really intimidated or worried about it and I play as aggressive as I can since I'm out the door anyway in a flash. I also wouldn't say I have generated that much heat. Sure I've been backed off a ton and trespassed at 4 properties, but 3 of those trespasses I believe it was because I got gaming involved. The other one was indeed probably cause of the splitting tens where I noticed the floor lady called over someone else and they were both glaring at my 2x250 splitting tens with about $1500 on the felt during that one round with the combination of winning that round as well as having a massive chip stack during that shoe, had to be what did me in. I knew I drew way too much attention that and I ended up getting 86'd on the next visit even though it was a month later. They likely reviewed the tape right after I left and waited for me. They didn't read me the trespass statute like the other 3 did, but whatever.

Also most of my backoffs and the trespasses(if not caused by calling gaming) all had to do with me spreading my bets and playing off the top heads up early on. When I exclusively backcount, I literally almost never get backed off or get any heat because it's just too hard to detect what I'm doing especially since im not blowing the door off with huge amounts of bets and im staying within comfort levels. The combination of short sessions and a 1-3 or 1-4 spread at tolerant max bets is not scaring anyone or making anyone panic or forced to take action, whereas spreading from 1x15 to 2x150, 2x200 or, 2x250 sitting on an island at the table brings a lot more attention.

Showing a huge spread is the number 1 factor why someone will get backed off or 86'd, especially in Vegas. Pit bosses are trained droned out robots with a checklist, of which a huge spread is the number 1 trigger to even give you a close look and call surveillance. So if the pit is not alarmed by me, then that means they won't phone up to surveillance, which is my only real threat due to me standing behind the tables. Everything else on the list is below the huge spread indicator. A 1-3 spread with a short time of seeing me play, they have no choice but to stay confused until next time or just simply write me off as a losing player, especially since Im nearly always standing on 12v2, 12v3, 16v10, and more often than not even 15v10, which must make them think I don't know what Im doing. Because remember, since I only play positive counts of +2 and higher and don't show any deviation between hitting and standing on those plays, there are no alarm bells going off. No one is calling up to surveillance on a 1-3 spread either at the possibility of getting laughed at at the chance of them being wrong, especially since I'm already out the door anyway and they wont have time to take action on me.
 
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DSchles

Well-Known Member
#14
ZenKinG said:
That's always been my understanding as well to just use the information at the present time, which is why I was puzzled when he said that and why others in archived threads were saying the same thing. No he did not offer a reason, but if I remember correctly, it was during one of his seminars. Might be a CE or risk averse logic to not resplit to curb the variance, perhaps? Maybe he was using risk averse indices? If one is using risk averse indices, perhaps the choice of 'resplitting' is to use a higher index, i dont know. I know that EV maximizing indices are exactly that 'EV MAXIMIZING' so I don't know why Semyon and others would advise increasing the index other than to curb short term volatility.

I'll continue just using the same index then for resplitting, thanks.
Yes, what you've written makes sense.

Don
 

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#15
ZenKinG said:
Yes, I split 10s every chance I get. I double A9's, double A8's, split 99v7, split 99vA, the whole nine yards. I play as aggressive as I can since I'm out the door anyway in a flash. I also wouldn't say I have generated that much heat. Sure I've been backed off a ton and trespassed at 4 properties, but 3 of those trespasses I believe it was because I got gaming involved. The other one was indeed probably cause of the splitting tens where I noticed the floor lady called over someone else and were glaring at my 2x250 split tens with about 1500 on the felt that round and me winning where I also had a massive chip stack on the felt so I knew I drew way too much attention that shoe, oh well. I ended up getting 86'd on the next visit even though it was a month later, so they likely reviewed the tape right after I left and waited for me. They didn't read me the trespass statute like the other 3 did, but whatever.

Also most of my backoffs and the trespasses(if not caused by calling gaming) all had to do with me spreading my bets and playing off the top heads up early on. When I exclusively backcount, I literally almost never get backed off or get any heat because it's just too hard to detect what I'm doing especially since im not blowing the door off with huge amounts of bets and im staying within comfort levels. The combination of short sessions and a 1-3 or 1-4 spread at tolerant max bets is not scaring anyone or making anyone panic or forced to take action, whereas spreading from 1x15 to 2x200 or 2x250 sitting on an island at the table brings a lot more attention.

Showing a spread is the number 1 factor why someone will get backed off or 86'd. Everything else is below that and only looked at if your spread alarms them. A 1-3 spread with a short time of seeing me play, they have no choice but to stay confused until next time. No one is calling up to surveillance on a 1-3 spread at the possibility of getting laughed at, especially since I'm already out the door anyway and they wont have time to take action on me.
I am about to head out the door but can't resist making a few comments that you may or may not agree with.

"Showing spread is the number 1 factor". True. But the real big part of that danger is retreating back from the larger bets, not building towards them. A variety of different styles of players increase their wagers. Players chasing losses, players parlaying win, Progressive wagering players. All of which the casinos love. But a player retreating back to the minimum wager at the shuffle after having bet 10, 15, 20 times more before the shuffle, almost always means card counter. I recommend every card counter with an eye towards longevity figure a way to eliminate that huge "tell".

1x15 to 2x200 or 2x250 spread. I am sure you are aware of my feelings on spreading to 2 hands as the count grows. I don't know why that is a bigger "tell" here in Vegas than other locations, BUT IT IS. Spreading to 2 hands is an attention getter IMO. When I play 2 hands I will start off playing 2 hands and drop to 1 if the count goes negative. But I never spread from 1 to 2 anymore. That's just me.

I also don't care that much for the numbers of your spread. 1x15 is Red. 2x200 and 2x250 is getting into black. That is a spread of red, green and black. Years ago, my pit friend advised me not to spread more than 2 colors if possible. He told me they were told to specifically look for that. I can't say how big a deal that is. Maybe nothing but it has served me well.

And finally, I would re-read and rethink your first paragraph. You list several things you do that I believe draw attention and heat. And then you say you don't think they draw heat. But then "I have been backed off a ton, trespassed at 4 properties". Your results (a ton of backoffs) contradict your conclusions that these actions are not drawing heat.

By contrast, I am backed off 4-5 times a year and have been sort of banned at one single casino in 10 years, a casino I still play weekly. :D

Maybe your goals are different than mine and longevity is not a priority.
 

ZenKinG

Well-Known Member
#16
KewlJ said:
I am about to head out the door but can't resist making a few comments that you may or may not agree with.

"Showing spread is the number 1 factor". True. But the real big part of that danger is retreating back from the larger bets, not building towards them. A variety of different styles of players increase their wagers. Players chasing losses, players parlaying win, Progressive wagering players. All of which the casinos love. But a player retreating back to the minimum wager at the shuffle after having bet 10, 15, 20 times more before the shuffle, almost always means card counter. I recommend every card counter with an eye towards longevity figure a way to eliminate that huge "tell".

1x15 to 2x200 or 2x250 spread. I am sure you are aware of my feelings on spreading to 2 hands as the count grows. I don't know why that is a bigger "tell" here in Vegas than other locations, BUT IT IS. Spreading to 2 hands is an attention getter IMO. When I play 2 hands I will start off playing 2 hands and drop to 1 if the count goes negative. But I never spread from 1 to 2 anymore. That's just me.

I also don't care that much for the numbers of your spread. 1x15 is Red. 2x200 and 2x250 is getting into black. That is a spread of red, green and black. Years ago, my pit friend advised me not to spread more than 2 colors if possible. He told me they were told to specifically look for that. I can't say how big a deal that is. Maybe nothing but it has served me well.

And finally, I would re-read and rethink your first paragraph. You list several things you do that I believe draw attention and heat. And then you say you don't think they draw heat. But then "I have been backed off a ton, trespassed at 4 properties". Your results (a ton of backoffs) contradict your conclusions that these actions are not drawing heat.

By contrast, I am backed off 4-5 times a year and have been sort of banned at one single casino in 10 years, a casino I still play weekly. :D

Maybe your goals are different than mine and longevity is not a priority.
Me being backed off has had more to do with my insistence to avoid many stores due to paranoia and tending to play at the same ones more often than not as well as bringing way too much attention to myself at the tables when things go south and I start accusing the casino of cheating me and then calling gaming etc more so than anything really wrong with my approach. Also the whole big spread thing going from 1 hand to 2 like you said and showing a huge spread which I alluded to before. Other than that, my approach as of now is really hard to detect(knock on wood) if I just don't bring unnecessary attention to myself. My real problem is I have been way out of control my first 2 years here and I obviously can't keep acting the way I do at the tables even though at times I believe it actually plays in my favor and they must think im a crazy degenerate.

Nonetheless, my vegas career if you can even call it that at this point, will come to an end and me spending my time fighting in courts rather than at the tables. If you've only been 'banned' at 1 place in 10 years, you obviously havent played the sweat shops I played at, which is probably the reason, because no one will be able to last at the places I got 86'd from other than maybe one of those, but one of those I brought a lot of attention to myself and continually returned after backoffs, which is another thing I tend to do and need to start giving these casinos more of a break in between backoffs.

I'm still working on controlling my paranoia and anger towards casinos. Even in PA, I acted in a similar fashion, which is probably really the only flaw in my game. At the same time, the way I act isn't even all my fault either and has some validity to it. These casinos are completely non-transparent, immoral, and irrational as history shows us and it boils me to no end, especially when gaming is nothing but a puppet to them and you quickly see who really 'runs' and enforces the law in this city. Spoiler alert : It's not gaming and it's not even the courts because I can't imagine how corrupt the courts must be as well.
 
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KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#17
I must say, I have been very impressed with several of your posts over the last few days. Shows real progress, learning from mistakes and/or just different situations. The ability to take a step back, re-evaluate and make changes going forward, rather than just steam and stubbornly charge ahead like a bull in a china shop, which we all do from time to time. ;)

Congratulations on that and identifying and working on various issue.
 
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