New to counting, my story

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Drake7

Active Member
#1
#1
Hey guys I'm Drake. Very new to counting and have an interesting story of how I started.

I started about 8 months ago but knew nearly nothing about risk and bet spreads. I started with a few hundred and played a $25 minimum on 3 hands and went up to $150 on 3 hands at a true +3. I was EXTREMELY lucky I would say and grew that bankroll playing 2 or 3 nights a week for hours to nearly 25k in 2 months or so. I thought I was unstoppable. I eventually decided I was going to try going to try double deck at $50 on 1 hand then up to $500 at a true +3. I lost my entire bankroll very quickly and was depressed for months. I lost nearly 12k in one night trying to chase my money after a loss. I was greedy, dumb, and uneducated when it came to counting. I only lost a few hundred of my own money but it was still a great learning experience for me.

TODAY:

This month I decided to try again but this time I did research to learn what I should correct and how to play properly. I learned the illustrious 18 and my coutning skills were significantly better this time around than when they were 8 months ago. I started with $1k nearly two weeks ago and its grown to $4k after playing 4 nights a week at alternating casinos. I imagine I'm hitting alot of good luck this time around as well but I'm still working on my bet spreads to be optimal as I'm sure I'm still at a high RoR. I start with $10 and move to $40 at a true +1, $80 at +2, and $120 at +3. I'd love any advice anyone is willing to give as I'm still trying to learn as much as I can. I'm sure I still have plenty of errors, just looking for advice to correct. Thanks guys!
 
KewlJ

KewlJ

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
A couple comments.

On the plus side, I like that minimum wager on your new spread ($10) is a fraction of what basically is your unit wager ($40). That is the way it has to be for most shoe games in today's world with less favorable conditions. Too many newer players are going by older idea, like the "benchmark" ramp presented in Wong's Professional blackjack, where the minimum wager was $10 and wagers raised by that same $10 amount at each unit. Not to pick on Wong as other material from that time did similar. That concept is just outdated now, with worsened conditions. The minimum or "waiting" bet really needs to be a fraction of any kind of unit bet. So kudos for that.

A couple things I don't like about your specific spread are as Don mentioned, if you are going along betting minimum, for a number of rounds and then jump 4x, that can be something that draws attention. Shouldn't be....especially at that level, but it may be. I might just break up that first jump by inserting a $20 wager in the middle and then go on to $40, win or lose, as long as the count is sufficient. Penalty for doing so will be small and that way you are never more than doubling wager.

Second, $40, $80 and $120 wagers are wagers that will involve two different color (denomination) chips. I personally like to stay away from that. Sometimes referred to as rainbow betting, this can actually slow the game down and draw additional attention, IMO.

If I was going to use a spread and ramp in this range, I might just round off those numbers. I would leave the $40, trying to bet all red chips. I would round off the $80 and $120, to $75 and $125 respectively. That way you are again betting one single color (green) and betting 3 and then 5 green doesn't look quite so uniform as meticulous $40 increment jumps.

Again just my own thoughts. There are many different paths to the same destination. :)
 
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Drake7

Active Member
#4
#4
Thanks for the comments guys. I'll check out cvcx and try that new spread. Your sort of answered this already but, would you have any other suggestions on how to optimally bet with a 4k bankroll? Just trying to see what the best options are.

Also table rules: H17, DaS, double any, dealer peeks. 3:2, No surrender
 
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BoSox

Well-Known Member
#7
#7
Drake7 said:
I lost my entire bankroll very quickly and was depressed for months. I lost nearly 12k in one night trying to chase my money after a loss. I was greedy, dumb, and uneducated when it came to counting. I only lost a few hundred of my own money but it was still a great learning experience for me.
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No, you lost nearly 25 K of your own money, not a few hundred, that is why you were depressed for months. The quicker you realize that the better off you will be from possibly repeating the same mistakes again, and again. Especially if you continue with the wrong ideas like chasing your own money,"once it's in the dealer's chip rack it is not yours" get that idea out of your head as quick as you can.

Meistro said:
Max bet of $120 on a 4k bankroll? Did you learn nothing from your first trip to bustoville?
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Drake7, do not dismiss Meistro's warning. You are overbetting, and what makes it even worse is that you do not even have the surrender option available to you, which is of extreme importance to all card counters, but especially to those playing on limited banks.
 
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Drake7

Active Member
#8
#8
Yes I fully understand I am over betting still. That's why I am here to ask for advice to avoid past mistakes. In the past I've chased my money. I'm pretty disciplined now and just looking for the optimal way to use my bankroll. I'm ok with a mild amount of risk
 
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Drake7

Active Member
#10
#10
I'm not sure wonging in and out is a viable option at my area due to being well known there.. also I'm using a fraction of my unit bet as my bet below a true 1. Does anyone have a recommendation to alter my spread that does not include wonging? I've had some success with my current system of about 8 trips but I do know that's probably due to positive variance
 
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BoSox

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
Drake7 said:
Also table rules: H17, DaS, double any, dealer peeks. 3:2, No surrender
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How many decks are you playing against currently, and what is the pen? Please explain the dealer peeks part as I thought this was long ago a thing of the past.
 
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BoSox

Well-Known Member
#14
#14
Drake7 said:
. I start with $10 and move to $40 at a true +1,
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At a TC of +1 your Ev edge is 0.18% a practical bet should be something like $15. You do not want to get in the habit of basically just trading variance with the house, it is not in your best interest.
 
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ZenKinG

ZenKinG

Well-Known Member
#16
#16
Any time a new player dismisses backcounting or any type of wonging, the word 'degenerate' comes to mind, especially with how he lost the 25k back after overbetting thinking he was 'unstoppable'. With all due respect drake, you have NO idea how much discipline its going to take to beat this game. Until you can go into a casino for 2 hours and not place a bet, you wont have what it takes to beat this game. I can usually tell if a new player will 'make it' so to speak whether it's being a counter or an AP in general. You seem to 'crave' action and so are finding excuses not to backcount or wong out. Unless you change your mentality, you are on the path to failure and not learning your lesson from the first time.

This doesnt mean you need to backcount all the time to beat the game, but its usually a good test and precursor to know if someone will succeed counting because wonging shows patience and discipline, which are the two most important aspects of whether youll succeed or not as a counter. Again, this doesnt just mean when it comes to placing a bet, but having that same patience and discipline when you go through a 200 hr losing streak and still having the discipline to stick to the strategy AND also being able to take the psychological hit of having to RESIZE your bets to a LOWER size. This means you will now have to play longer hours to make it all back because you understand how important it is to keep your risk consistently low rather than 'chasing losses' as you have admittedly said you have done. If you have the patience and discipline to backcount, you likely will have the patience and discipline to go through a huge losing streak and everything else I mentioned.

Good luck drake, i hope you succeed but you sent out some red flags that youre just like every other neophyte counter that lacks discipline and patience and underestimate how tough this game will be to beat. Please read Dons book Blackjack Attack, get Casino Verite and size your bets appropriately. Most importantly, you should only be playing for practice now and working two jobs until you have at least 20k liquid and no debt. If you have any kind of debt or loans hanging above your head, please step away from the tables. Good luck.
 
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Drake7

Active Member
#17
#17
Well wow. I shared the story to show that I was uneducated and really didn't understand what I was doing at the time. But appreciate the jabs there. I'm simply looking to see what options I currently have with my current bankroll. Would appreciate actual advice rather than this last post. I'm not dismissing wonging because I don't want to do it. I'm thinking it wouldn't be an option for me at my locations because I'm well known by the staff and would bring alot of heat, but again I'm not sure because I'm here to LEARN and ask questions. I ran a few simulations in cvcx after watching some tutorials and came up with a spread that looked to be 5-10-20-30-40 or something of that nature. With the rules at my location I'm thinking I would modify that to something like 10-15-20-40-50. I know this would bring more risk but I'm just trying to find a way to play with my current bankroll. I'm fine with a fair amount of risk as it's replenishable but ideally would like to keep low.

Zen - I know you're just trying to help but I really do want to learn what I can. There's so much information out there and it's hard to get through it all. Some sites I've even seen on forums that suggest a bankroll of mine to start for size and even BJA says they started with something smaller. I'm just trying to make it work. My bankroll may not be ideal at the moment but I'm perfectly ok with that for now. I'll adapt and do what I'm able to. I'll pick up the book and take the advice you suggested but please believe I'm not trying to "chase my money" or gamble. I want to beat this game and I'm trying to do what I can. If anyone is experienced with cvcx and can show some numbers for my RoR I'd love to see them. When I looked at one spread it was giving me 13.3% as the lowest possible based on my bankroll. I'm currently at work without access to it but I'll check it again before my trip tonight and adapt if I'm able. But as I said if anyone has suggestions or can show some numbers I'd love to see/hear
 
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BoSox

Well-Known Member
#18
#18
Drake7 said:
With the rules at my location I'm thinking I would modify that to something like 10-15-20-40-50.
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The larger bet jump you need to make is at a TC of +2. I think you have it in the above quote as 20 you went from an Ev edge of 0.18% at TC of +1 to an EV edge of 0.73% at a TC of +2 a practical bet should now be 40 but you are underfunded and the higher risk is going to eventually bite you in the ass again. You need to stop thinking that you can use a play all approach. Be creative and sit out some hands, wong out, and sometimes wong in. Develop an act if you are afraid because they know you. Do what you need to do in order to survive, you simply cannot afford to play all hands. and frankly, why would you even want to in the first place?
 
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Drake7

Active Member
#19
#19
Wonging out would be a possibility I would think. If CVCX is telling me right, I could wong out at a true -1 with a 1-8 spread and have a 6% RoR. Very new to using this but please let me know if you see anything to change. Still trying to figure out how to optimize properly. As i said im fully aware no matter what i'm going to be playing with risk, and frankly that's ok with me for now.

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ZenKinG

ZenKinG

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
Also, let me add this, many people use ROR but dont actually understand what that means even when they THINK they do as ill get into below.

ROR is the % chance of losing ALL of your bankroll. What about losing HALF of your bankroll? Because if you lose half, you better resize or youll probably go bust and now what? Are you ready to play smaller stakes at a lower win rate per hour to make up the loss? So what i recommend to people is find out what your true ROR is by NOT using your whole bankroll, but assuming you will lose HALF of it and then taking the ROR based off of half of your bankroll.

This way, you dont have to resize and deal with that psychological burden of having to bet less after losing at higher stakes, while also keeping a very low ROR, and it also gives you a much better long term idea of what your win rate will be since you can use a fixed bet size/spread throughout rather than resizing back and forth.
 
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