ZenKinG said:
Let the forum note, Dummy is the same person who has said in the past that negative rounds for him are +EV because all the big cards came out such as tens and aces. While that is partially true, in the LONG RUN, as you tried to mention in your last post, it is -EV, and is a complete contradiction to what you wrote in the past. It's about the long run right? So why did you feel the need to say on other forums under your Tthree handle that negative rounds are +EV just because you got the big cards?
You bet in anticipation of what cards you are expecting to hit the table on the next round. The advantage you actually had on that round in retrospect depends on the count the cards where representative of not the count of the pack the cards were pulled from. Maybe you have heard of shuffle tracking. They may be counting and know all the remaining cards average to a big disadvantage but bet big because they know the next round is representative of a what you would expect in a positive pack of cards. I point this out because it has its uses when you play. If you can't figure out how to use this to your advantage or are a casino employee trying to dig for info I am not going to explain how you can use this to your advantage. Many people use this fact to make their spreads appear smaller than they are and generate more longevity. It is about the long run and getting there while playing a game that isn't made worse because you are playing is about making appearances seem different than they are. It is the art of being a profitable card counter. Someone that doesn't believe in cover and can't get away with playing in a casino without getting the tap wouldn't have learned this very important AP skill. Most here understand exactly what the value is and how to use it to your advantage. Not all advantage is about EV.
The point that obviously escapes you is you bet in anticipation of what you think the next round's composition will be but your actual advantage for that round depends on the cards that came out during that round and what count that is representative of. Look up shuffle tracking. You might start to understand the concept that your advantage on the next round isn't the same as the average advantage for the rest of the cards. The long run is about that average after many thousands of rounds have been played but the actual advantage on any given round is about the cards that come out that round. Understanding the possibilities and making bets so how you react to them puts you in the strongest position is key.
I think one of the best quotes from Bigplayer that you should ponder is, "To be successful at card counting you need to raise your bet in anticipation of having an advantage after the next round is played". Why do you think he would say that? There are 3 reasons:
1) The difference between your waiting bet and the bet you may need to make is large enough that you need to make a bigger bet to make the raise reasonable enough that it doesn't cause you heat.
2) The next round might make the count fall, in which case you made a raised bet into a round that was representative of an advantage deck composition.
3) The next round may make the count raise to the point that increasing your waiting bet to the appropriate bet would bring undo heat.
Are the wheels clicking now or are you so set on being a computer when you play that you don't get that will quickly get you booted and have the games you see when you show back up be not worth playing?