RoR on Two Hands

K

Krainn

Member
#1
#1
Hi,

So some background before the question. I've got a 3000 dollar bankroll at the moment and am unable to play a 5 dollar minimum table because, with the absence of surrender and H17 ridden casinos around me, I would be left with upwards of 40% RoR. At a 3 dollar table with the still crappy rules yet still positive EV (I'm really just trying to get practice in), my RoR is down to around 20%. I want to reduce my RoR even more, so here's the question: if my betting ramp goes +1=6, +2=24, and +3 above =36 (CVCX), would I be able to decrease the RoR by splitting to 2x3 at +1, 2x12 at +2, and 2x18 at +3 above?

Thank you.
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Yes. EV will remain the same and ROR will go down. But you can have much less than 40% ROR at $5 table with 3k bankroll. What are rules and penetration?
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
The following spread should give u only 2.3% ROR for 3k bankroll :


TC 1 : 5
TC 2 : 10
TC 3 : 15
TC 4 : 20
TC 5 : 30
TC 6 : 35
TC 7 : 45
TC 8 : 50

This is for a six deck, H17, DAS, DA2 no surrender game with a 1.5 decks cut off.


It assumes you are wonging in at TC +1 and not playing negative counts.
 
K

Krainn

Member
#4
#4
Thank you Meistro,

I'm playing with the rules you mentioned in your comment (ouch I know)

The ramp you gave me is much appreciated !
 
S

Splittingten's

Banned
#5
#5
Meistro, isn't that betting ramp a little too slow? True counts of +8 happen less than 1 percent of the time. I also think that most people advocate for a 1 to 12 spread in a 6 deck shoe, not a 1 to 10. How would a betting ramp of TC +1 = 15 TC +2 = 30 TC +3 =45 and TC +4 = 60 look on his ROR? I expect it to be pretty high because it's way above Kelly. I'm also assuming he wongs at +1.
EDIT: Thinking about it now, would he even have an advantage at a true count of +1? If he's using the standard hi lo then the house will still have an advantage at a tc of +1. (Because for each tc of +1 the house edge decreases by 0.50% and the house edge for the game he's playing is about 0.57%)
With this in mind he might want to wait to +2 to wong in and adjust the rest of his bet sizing accordingly.
 
M

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Betting more than Kelly is irrational and counter productive for the purpose of bankroll growth.

Under an illiberal H17, DAS rule set the player has a very modest advantage at TC 1 (an average of 0.15% over the whole bin). So raising your bet at TC +1 would be ill advised, although with more liberal rules it would be recommended.

TC 2 : 0.69%
TC 3 : 1.25%
TC 4 : 1.82%


I recommend purchasing CVCX so that you can answer these questions yourself.


Your bet ramp is too steep. The most you would want to bet at TC 4 is 1.365% of your bankroll (full kelly). So $40 is the maximum one might want to bet at TC +4. But you could definitely want to bet less than that in order to minimize swings. My ramp appears to be a pretty reasonable half kelly. I also do not see why you would bet the same at TC +4 as you would at TC +8 when your advantage is more than twice as great.
 
S

Splittingten's

Banned
#7
#7
You bring up some good points. Are you sure the player has an advantage at a tc of +1 though? In the hi lo count the player gains a 0.50% advantage for each true count of +1. With a house edge of over 0.50% it seems like a tc of +1 wouldn't get over the house edge. How do I buy CVCX? Do you have it? Do you recommend it?
 
Taff

Taff

Well-Known Member
#9
#9
Meistro said:
Under an illiberal H17, DAS rule set the player has a very modest advantage at TC 1 (an average of 0.15% over the whole bin). So raising your bet at TC +1 would be ill advised, although with more liberal rules it would be recommended.
Click to expand...
Totally agree. I have S.17 but ENHC. I ignore +1
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top