Talk me off the ledge

[JJP]

I've been on a real bad run lately. 6 of the last 7 outings have produced bad outcomes, and the lone non losing effort was a small win that I pulled out after trailing most of that day. The first day or two, I just wrote it off as negative variance. As time has gone on, I've become more paranoid. When you start to view the dealer as a magical monster, capable of pulling out win after win, when circumstances say they shouldn't, it starts to affect your thinking. For me, it made me gun shy to the point of restricting my bet spreads. While I know that is a mistake, I also know that has saved me quite a bit of money during this period (which dates back to early April). And I know we are not supposed to let previous results affect our betting, but I'm human. When the dealer seemingly is always starting out with a face card, it's hard to have too much confidence. Sure, they will bust every know and then, but when they aren't, it's 20 or 21 every time.

So I intended to play what I thought was the only decent card club in the area (actually have surrender and no fee) but I walk in, and the two BJ tables both have gone CSM. There was an Indian casino about 7 miles away. Their rules aren't great, but they have a few tables that are playable, once you get past their CSM tables, and several 6-5 tables. I play a bit and even back counted two tables. I'm not getting buried, but I'm not ahead at this point. I start playing a table with 3 ploppies. It's a $10 minimum table. The count gradually rises but I struggle to put up more than $40 per hand. My negative thoughts and expectations are validated, as the dealer continues to find ways not to bust. I get up to about three $50 bets. I win one and lose two. Finally in one round, a number of small cards are just flying out. The RC is now +11 with about 2 decks remaining. I haven't yet bet $100 in a hand but now is the time. The ploppies at the table have now been buried and have left. But I'm pissed as well. Screw the casino; I have $200 in chips left and I push out $150. The situation dictates it, and to be quite honest, it was a bit of a tilt. I get a 2 and 8 while the dealer has a 3. I only have $50 in chips so I take out a $100 bill and am able to make the double. This garbage variance is finally going to turn. So the double down card? I get a 3. I just shake my head in disgust. Then I see the dealer turns over an 8 and I can just feel the anger within me. Her final card is a king (what else?) for a fitting result.

I know its a great count and probably could've played a few more rounds but I was too angry. Anger does not mix with gambling. What I don't understand is playing the Qfit software, I never see the crazy bias that I've seen in the casino. Sure sometimes the dealer gets good cards, sometimes I do and sometimes there's no advantage in the software. It seems normal. I believe in the math but nowhere in life does it state everything is even and fair. The analytics community has been saying the New England Patriots, with a great turnover margin nearly every year for the past 20 years, have been lucky. How has that turned out for them? That same community is saying Justin Verlander is the luckiest pitcher in MLB as 90% of his baserunners have not scored. Are they aware Verlander is a lock for the Hall of Fame?

I don't know how the veterans deal with the variance. I'm guessing many of them started out with positive variance to help build their bankroll, they've gotten better over time, and as such have been able to weather the negative variance. Right now it feels like variance is 95% of the game.

I guess I should feel good that I broke thru with a new high bet amount, even though it went down in flames. The money isn't a giant issue but I hate losing. I've lost some tough photo finishes in horse racing and been victimized by some unwarranted disqualifications, but in the long run, I really felt that stuff came close to evening out. So far, blackjack variance has not remotely come close to evening out. And some of this is my fault for playing two places that only have 8 deck shoes. With around 8 playing options within 2 hours, I'm down to 3 that I will consider playing. Maybe a few weeks off and more practice time will turn things around. I'm not going back until my mind is not in a negative frame of mind.

 

[JohnCrover]

Hi JJP,
I'm sorry to hear about your miss-fortune. Most of us have been through similar experiences as yours and we know how you feel, you're not alone. I understand that you feel angry, frustrated, hopeless and maybe paranoid, as well as many other emotions. We know how you feel, many of us have been through similar experiences and we have come out the other end and so will you.

 

[ZenKinG]

Quick advice. Dont jump. Life in general is a roller coaster, especially blackjack. It will turn around for you if your game is sound. Believe me I've pretty much seen it all and have also talked 'crazy' (and still do lol) like you are doing right now such as jumping off a bridge, etc. I dont know about you, but hope you're not seriius because for me it was and still is a venting reaction after frustrating results. I actually had no plans to jump, but i need some way of venting out the frustration, especially after all I went through to finally move here and immediately hit a downswing, not to mention the swings back home as well as I'll get into below. Everyone needs a way to deal with the inevitable frustration of this game and unfortunately this has been my way of doing it and probably burned a lot of bridges already with people(no pun intended), but it is what it is at this point.

First off, you're likely overbetting, which is why the losses affect you so much emptionally. What's your bankroll and ramp? Also how mamy rounds have you played? It's going to take on average 15-20k rounds if you're playing somewhat of a decent game to have about a 84% chance of being ahead in blackjack. It sounds like you would be better off to go work 2 jobs and play on the side like what I ended up doing until you have somewhat of a bankroll to make a decent hourly. Working a job or 2 also has the added benefit of allowing you to keep practicing more, learn more indices, fine tune your game, understand all of the math behind it, while also not allowing your face to be burnt at lower stakes.

You're right that many pros likely started off with positive variance, but I wasnt one of them. When I first started I didnt even know any index plays, learned the Zen Count(hence my online ID) and would occasionally take the bus to Atlantic City back and forth occasionally. I was playing terrible games without even realizing it at the time because I was so new to it all. I probably ended up losing over 2k red chipping after maybe 50 hours, but at that time I wasnt even tracking my results or hours, but that seems about right. Eventually it angered me to the point I wanted to learn everything I could about the game, read every online post I could and eventually joined norms forum and became a contributor.

Long story short I eventually picked up wong halves, stopped worrying about what count I use and learned every index from -1 to +11 and started backcounting aggressively with occasional heads up play and wonging out at -1. I headed for PA, which had the best games in my area. I made around 2k red chipping there after 150 hours and then the following 100 hours when I finally started playing green chips, I made 23k but then it all fell apart. The next 300 hours I gave all of the 23k back. So after 400 hours + my -2k early days red chipping in AC along with my 2k profit red chipping in PA, i had net earnings of basically ZERO.

So that was about 600 hours to start my career with nothing to show for it. Although I wasn't in the red, it was still completely depressing and I was completely distraught. I was determined to not fail though mostly due to the fact of my competitive nature of not wanting to fail at anything combined with the fact of how much time I put into this so i was going to see this until the end. Maybe the 23k initial win showed me my potential so I kept on pushing and the next 100 hours I ended up making 30k and never looked back other than some occasional minor setbacks. Eventually, I left my job at the time and grew my bankroll to 60k before moving out here.

This game really is about perseverance and discipline more than anything and is the epitome of a grind. That's exactly why casinos still offer the game because the higher up executives know most players will fail and not have the sufficient bankroll to pull through the swings or the perseverance to grind it out.

Good luck man, just keep pushing through. You have to really love playing in my opinion to be successful at this because the effort someone puts into this could very well be put into something a lot more lucrative. Just remember each time you go through a downswing that if it was easy, EVERYONE would be counting cards and the game wouldn't be offered anymore. The game is still offered for a reason and luckily is still still beatable while still allowing the casino to profit handsomely from it and offer the game.

 

[Stevel96a1]

you should try Masque blackjack 1991 (i think) if you have a smart phone, download dosbox turbo and add the program into the folder and load it up.

from there you will run a weak but stable count of around 500k hands and lose 3k but in the end win 1700$ and this is with a crappy 1-5 spread with ok rules

you can't temper with the spread but this should give you a measuring stick what can and can't go wrong every 1/2 mil hands the edge was 0.01% hardly there? but beats losing all lol you need a larger spread or don't play negative hands
i never trusted casino verite as a measuring tool what can and can't happen

thats why everyone say you need 200 max bets , thats alot of money to some one like me who has bills to pay. anyway you won't need a good act if losing keeps up i think a smart house would welcome my business if i tried

anyway you should try dueces wild full pay machine you can grab a 0.76% edge if done correctly and live in vegas area good luck!

 

[SplitFaceDisaster]

I'm not going back until my mind is not in a negative frame of mind.

Don`t give up! Some good things were already said in this thread, so I won`t expound on them. But, I will say I think that the last sentence of your post above is a good idea; make sure your game is dead on and you`re in the right frame of mind before going back.

 

[JJP]

Thanks for the responses. Just to clarify, I wasn't really considering "jumping off a ledge". It was really a metaphor for thinking about quitting. But I'm not ready to quit. I admit I have a bit of paranoia when it comes to the game, and I am not afraid to admit it. But I tend to think more rationally the day after a bad session than I do the previous night.

Zenking- I think underbetting has been my problem, not overbetting. I work a full time job and have a $10k bankroll. But the card sequencing has been so bad lately, that I've had trouble betting more than $40 a hand recently. There were instances when I should've been betting $100 but I couldn't pull the trigger. I finally did pull the trigger, and since it was a double down, I basically used up all my bullets (for that day). But I also know that my losses could've been three times more in the past two months, and that would've crushed most of my bankroll. Logically I think this has to turn at some point, but it doesn't have to right away. Economist John Maynard Keynes once said "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." I think we can substitute "card sequencing" for market and it applies.

I wish I could get a printout of my results. I would guess that I've won on no more than 33% of my double downs in the past 2 months.

I'm going to Reno in July to cash some NBA season win total bets and plan on staying on the sidelines and practicing until that point. I did OK at the tables there last year so at least I don't have the same paranoia as I do toward a couple of the Indian casinos. Like SFD says above, have to be in the right frame of mind and I agree 100%.

 

[KewlJ]

Well, I am glad to hear the title of this thread was a metaphor, because I was a bit uneasy seeing that title.

Not pulling the trigger on max bet is a common mistake of newer, inexperienced players. Zeebabar went through this for a while (hopefully is over that now). Blackjack card counting affords such a razor thin margin of advantage, IF you do everything right. You can not afford to get cold feet about placing those bigger bets when you have an advantage.

In the short term, Double down results more than anything will be directly responsible for our short-term results (sessions, days, weeks, month depending on how much or frequently you play). You will get your share of blackjacks whether you are winning or losing. And while some people include splits with double downs as far as highly influencing your short-term results, with splits, you often push, winning one hand and losing the other, plus split occur less frequently than double downs.

So it is double downs, especially at higher counts with larger bets that determine whether you win or lose short-term. If you win the majority of your double downs, you will win that day, or week or month. If you lose the majority of double downs, you are more likely to lose over that same short-term period. That's just the way it is.

I don't know how long you have been playing, but I will just say, keep plugging away. Believe in the math. It is not unusual for me to have an extended losing period, of weeks into months of losing or stagnant periods, and then boom, I go on a tear winning for a short period and results seem to be just where they "should be". And when I say months, I am talking 10's of thousands of rounds played.

One of the good things is that after you go through these cycles a few times, you get used to them. You start to think nothing of losing for several months. It is just the way the game works.

 

[JJP]

Well, I am glad to hear the title of this thread was a metaphor, because I was a bit uneasy seeing that title.

Not pulling the trigger on max bet is a common mistake of newer, inexperienced players. Zeebabar went through this for a while (hopefully is over that now). Blackjack card counting affords such a razor thin margin of advantage, IF you do everything right. You can not afford to get cold feet about placing those bigger bets when you have an advantage.

In the short term, Double down results more than anything will be directly responsible for our short-term results (sessions, days, weeks, month depending on how much or frequently you play). You will get your share of blackjacks whether you are winning or losing. And while some people include splits with double downs as far as highly influencing your short-term results, with splits, you often push, winning one hand and losing the other, plus split occur less frequently than double downs.

So it is double downs, especially at higher counts with larger bets that determine whether you win or lose short-term. If you win the majority of your double downs, you will win that day, or week or month. If you lose the majority of double downs, you are more likely to lose over that same short-term period. That's just the way it is.

I don't know how long you have been playing, but I will just say, keep plugging away. Believe in the math. It is not unusual for me to have an extended losing period, of weeks into months of losing or stagnant periods, and then boom, I go on a tear winning for a short period and results seem to be just where they "should be". And when I say months, I am talking 10's of thousands of rounds played.

One of the good things is that after you go through these cycles a few times, you get used to them. You start to think nothing of losing for several months. It is just the way the game works.

You are right and I have been focusing too much on the short term. And what you say about the double downs makes perfect sense. To use a sports analogy, double downs are the high leverage situation for blackjack. They are like a football team's performance in 3rd down situations, or a baseball team's performance with runners in scoring position.

One thing I have taken from this period is just how significant variance is. As a sports bettor, I was aware of it, but I have a much better understanding of it from playing blackjack. I had a great season betting baseball in 2016. I remember thinking "am I that good? I did have some good hypothesis, but I realize I also clearly benefitted from some positive variance.

 

[ZenKinG]

Thanks for the responses. Just to clarify, I wasn't really considering "jumping off a ledge". It was really a metaphor for thinking about quitting. But I'm not ready to quit. I admit I have a bit of paranoia when it comes to the game, and I am not afraid to admit it. But I tend to think more rationally the day after a bad session than I do the previous night.

Zenking- I think underbetting has been my problem, not overbetting. I work a full time job and have a $10k bankroll. But the card sequencing has been so bad lately, that I've had trouble betting more than $40 a hand recently. There were instances when I should've been betting $100 but I couldn't pull the trigger. I finally did pull the trigger, and since it was a double down, I basically used up all my bullets (for that day). But I also know that my losses could've been three times more in the past two months, and that would've crushed most of my bankroll. Logically I think this has to turn at some point, but it doesn't have to right away. Economist John Maynard Keynes once said "the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." I think we can substitute "card sequencing" for market and it applies.

I wish I could get a printout of my results. I would guess that I've won on no more than 33% of my double downs in the past 2 months.

I'm going to Reno in July to cash some NBA season win total bets and plan on staying on the sidelines and practicing until that point. I did OK at the tables there last year so at least I don't have the same paranoia as I do toward a couple of the Indian casinos. Like SFD says above, have to be in the right frame of mind and I agree 100%.

Do you only play indian casinos? Because if you are, you very well may be getting cheated. Im very paranoid towards those establishments and only played their once time when I visited 3 or so casinos in SoCal. I won at 1 of them and then got crushed at another after backcounting the shoe.

Chances are indian casinos are not cheating, but im very leery of an establishment that answers to themselves with no real enforcing authority to protect the public. There also have been cases of indian casinos cheating in the past such as Soaring Eagle so I just avoid them now. I barely have trust in state regulated casinos, let alone these guys.

Just my .02

 

[JJP]

Do you only play indian casinos? Because if you are, you very well may be getting cheated. Im very paranoid towards those establishments and only played their once time when I visited 3 or so casinos in SoCal. I won at 1 of them and then got crushed at another after backcounting the shoe.

Chances are indian casinos are not cheating, but im very leery of an establishment that answers to themselves with no real enforcing authority to protect the public. There also have been cases of indian casinos cheating in the past such as Soaring Eagle so I just avoid them now. I barely have trust in state regulated casinos, let alone these guys.

Just my .02

Not exclusively, but mostly. I'm in California so the non-Indian casinos I play are basically when I go to Reno or Vegas. I make about 4 trips a year to Nevada. I thought I had found a good card room (shocking) but when I went back this past weekend, they now went to CSMs. There's one Indian casino in northern Cal that has a little better rules (dealer stands on 17 and 6 deck shoes instead of 8) than most of the others, and not surprisingly, my results have been better there. There's another which doesn't have great rules (all shoes 8 decks) and I have not done well there. They have been known to sweat out expanding bet spreads and I have seen quite a few very positive true counts there that just never came down. I also have asked for idle deck shuffles numerous times there and they have refused every time. It's also quite smoky. Are they cheating? Probably not, but due to all the factors I've mentioned, it will be a long time before I go back.....if ever.

 

[JJP]

One story to add: during my trip to an Indian casino this past weekend, I saw a table that was going to open up shortly. The other tables were either filled with players or smoke, so I was more than content to wait a few minutes as the dealer went thru all 8 decks. While he was going thru them, I was also going thru them. I can attest every card that was supposed to be there, was there. Late in the process, another player came up to the table. The new player asked the dealer if he ever found a mistake when going thru the decks. "Every now and then," he said. I almost spilled my water. I asked him what kind of mistakes. He said a small bend or smudge occasionally. I didn't press the issue. I doubt he would ever say anything like there was two extra 5s and 6s and 4 missing face cards. But I was taken aback by his flippant answer re: the decks.

 

[ZenKinG]

One story to add: during my trip to an Indian casino this past weekend, I saw a table that was going to open up shortly. The other tables were either filled with players or smoke, so I was more than content to wait a few minutes as the dealer went thru all 8 decks. While he was going thru them, I was also going thru them. I can attest every card that was supposed to be there, was there. Late in the process, another player came up to the table. The new player asked the dealer if he ever found a mistake when going thru the decks. "Every now and then," he said. I almost spilled my water. I asked him what kind of mistakes. He said a small bend or smudge occasionally. I didn't press the issue. I doubt he would ever say anything like there was two extra 5s and 6s and 4 missing face cards. But I was taken aback by his flippant answer re: the decks.

So the 8 decks came in order with A-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-J-Q-K? That's good to know, especially for an Indian Casino, and since most shoe games these days are all pre-shuffled especially 8 deck games. Maybe all this cheating and paranoia I've spammed on these forums is finally starting to spread across the country with many people complaing and casinos are going back to normal procedure without having them pre-shuffled. If anything, that's a start. Casinos need to be transparent to their customer base.

Regarding Indian casinos, i wish I could trust them but I just cannot. I wouldve moved to Califrnoia by now perhaps, at least for 3-6 months, but I just dont trust them at all when enforcement of procedues is answered by themselves. I guess I could go there and play their double deck games, which have the cards come in order, but I like to only play shoes for longevity reasons and the style I play.

Can you name the casino by the way that you said spread the cards in order? Have you ever played at San Manuel? Thats the place that murdered me.

 

[Hell'nBack]

One story to add: during my trip to an Indian casino this past weekend, I saw a table that was going to open up shortly. The other tables were either filled with players or smoke, so I was more than content to wait a few minutes as the dealer went thru all 8 decks. While he was going thru them, I was also going thru them. I can attest every card that was supposed to be there, was there. Late in the process, another player came up to the table. The new player asked the dealer if he ever found a mistake when going thru the decks. "Every now and then," he said. I almost spilled my water. I asked him what kind of mistakes. He said a small bend or smudge occasionally. I didn't press the issue. I doubt he would ever say anything like there was two extra 5s and 6s and 4 missing face cards. But I was taken aback by his flippant answer re: the decks.

The name of the game is VARIANCE! With $10k in your arsenal, ror should be an irrelevant topic and the only game you should attack is DD with LL. It will provide the most variance because your top bet will materialize far more often than wonging shoes. It will also generate the most heat and frequent barrings.
The major pitfall of all under-capped players is that they are playing scared. To have any chance at winning, you have to be willing to bust out. Embrace the variance. THERE IS NO OTHER WAY!

"Life is a gamble, bet on it!" - A. Snyder

 

[ZenKinG]

The major pitfall of all under-capped players is that they are playing scared. To have any chance at winning, you have to be willing to bust out. Embrace the variance. THERE IS NO OTHER WAY!

Completely false. The reason most under capped players bust out or fail is because they over bet and think counting is a money making get rich quick scheme and have no idea of bankroll and risk management, the concept of N-Zero and how many rounds it will take to overcome 1SD, or have any discipline to go through the inevitable swings. They also dont know any deviations, other than maybe the insurance decision. They keep a basic count in their head and think winning at blackjack is as simple as just betting big if a big number pops in their head with their $500 bankroll. They then lose it all and claim counting doesnt work and continue being the degenerate they are by going to play roulette, craps, and -ev poker.

 

[Hell'nBack]

The second pitfall is playing bad games under bad conditions and expecting to win. Most former blackjack pros I know are now poker players because they burned out their welcome in casino land.

 

[psyduck]

The Native casino I play has all new cards in the shoe displayed face up in order. They do not mix and shuffle until some player comes to the table. That is transparent!

 

[JJP]

So the 8 decks came in order with A-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-J-Q-K? That's good to know, especially for an Indian Casino, and since most shoe games these days are all pre-shuffled especially 8 deck games. Maybe all this cheating and paranoia I've spammed on these forums is finally starting to spread across the country with many people complaing and casinos are going back to normal procedure without having them pre-shuffled. If anything, that's a start. Casinos need to be transparent to their customer base.

Regarding Indian casinos, i wish I could trust them but I just cannot. I wouldve moved to Califrnoia by now perhaps, at least for 3-6 months, but I just dont trust them at all when enforcement of procedues is answered by themselves. I guess I could go there and play their double deck games, which have the cards come in order, but I like to only play shoes for longevity reasons and the style I play.

Can you name the casino by the way that you said spread the cards in order? Have you ever played at San Manuel? Thats the place that murdered me.

The casino that spread the cards was Graton. I wouldn't exactly recommend them because they have too many CSMs and 6-5. But they have a few 3-2 non CSM tables. I only went there because I thought I was going to go to the one good card room, but that place is now CSMs, so I had to change plans and Graton was about 7 miles away. But at least Graton showed some transparency. I know San Manuel is near LA but I have not played at any LA area casinos. Cache Creek near Sacramento has the best rules of the Indian casinos I've seen.

 

[JJP]

The name of the game is VARIANCE! With $10k in your arsenal, ror should be an irrelevant topic and the only game you should attack is DD with LL. It will provide the most variance because your top bet will materialize far more often than wonging shoes. It will also generate the most heat and frequent barrings.
The major pitfall of all under-capped players is that they are playing scared. To have any chance at winning, you have to be willing to bust out. Embrace the variance. THERE IS NO OTHER WAY!

"Life is a gamble, bet on it!" - A. Snyder

But doesn't the negative variance cancel out the positive variance so in the long run its up to the playing decisions and bet spreads one makes?

BTW, if I really wanted, my bankroll could be bigger than $10k. But until I prove to myself that I can be a long term winner, I don't think its responsible to put more aside for it.

 

[Tater]

My sister's boyfriend once jumped off our front porch when she broke up with him. He laid there half the night. We went on to bed. Point is, "it ain't no thang, man, not a damn thang."

 

[GuyIncognito]

Well this at least made me feel a little better about my last losing weekend.