TC & Max Bet

[Sharpe]

Hello everyone,

First off, if it's not obvious, I am new to this board and fairly new to AP. I have known how to count cards for a few years although I never put much time or attention into mastering the skill to take to casinos. The last few months I have been studying a lot on card counting and feel I am getting close to being able to start red chipping in the casinos. I would estimate approximately 80 - 100 hours of serious counting practice at home the last few months.. I feel my prior knowledge of counting helped accelerate my practice a little bit when I started.

My local casino rules are not the greatest but not the worst. 3:2, 6D, H17, DS, DA, split aces 1x, RS4, 80-90% pen depending on the dealer. I plan to play all and spread between $10 - $80 or $10 - 2 x 40... You have to double table minimum to play two hands. Table minimum is $10.

My question is at what true count should you get your MAX bet out? I've seen between TC3 & TC5. Here's a quick reference of what I had in mind and wanted to know your thoughts based on the game I mentioned above.

TC <= 1: $10
TC 2: $30
TC 3: $50
TC 4+: $80; or 2 x 40

Not sure if I am getting my MAX bet out too quickly since I plan to start out very conservative while I gain more experience. My initial bankroll is $5k but once I have more experience, I plan to increase this to $20k or more depending on if/ what the initial bankroll amounts to.

Thanks in advance for any feedback!

 

[JohnCrover]

Hello everyone,

First off, if it's not obvious, I am new to this board and fairly new to AP. I have known how to count cards for a few years although I never put much time or attention into mastering the skill to take to casinos. The last few months I have been studying a lot on card counting and feel I am getting close to being able to start red chipping in the casinos. I would estimate approximately 80 - 100 hours of serious counting practice at home the last few months.. I feel my prior knowledge of counting helped accelerate my practice a little bit when I started.

My local casino rules are not the greatest but not the worst. 3:2, 6D, H17, DS, DA, split aces 1x, RS4, 80-90% pen depending on the dealer. I plan to play all and spread between $10 - $80 or $10 - 2 x 40... You have to double table minimum to play two hands. Table minimum is $10.

My question is at what true count should you get your MAX bet out? I've seen between TC3 & TC5. Here's a quick reference of what I had in mind and wanted to know your thoughts based on the game I mentioned above.

TC <= 1: $10
TC 2: $30
TC 3: $50
TC 4+: $80; or 2 x 40

Not sure if I am getting my MAX bet out too quickly since I plan to start out very conservative while I gain more experience. My initial bankroll is $5k but once I have more experience, I plan to increase this to $20k or more depending on if/ what the initial bankroll amounts to.

Thanks in advance for any feedback!

Okay, here we go again, *Clears throat*
In theory you should never have a max bet because your current wager should be a percentage of your bankroll in correlation with your advantage. For example, if your bank roll is 5k then at a TC of +1 (using hi-lo) your advantage should be 0.50%, therefore your wager should be 0.50% of 5,000 dollars, which is $25. At a TC 2 your advantage should be about 1%, therefore your max bet should be 1% of your 5k bank roll, therefore, your wager should be 1% of 5,000 dollars which is $50, at a true count of 3 your advantage is about 1.5%, therefore you should bet 1.5% of your bank roll, which is $75. For each TC of +1 the player advantage swings about 0.50%(with hi-lo). Once you have the correct theoretical amount you should wager for each true count you need to adjust your number so that you only bet 3/4 of that because the Kelly Criterion wasn't made for blackjack so the numbers need to be adjusted for the variance in blackjack.(Which should be about 1.411 please correct me Don) That means that if the true count is saying you should bet $100 then you should only bet $75 to account for the variance in Blackjack. Once you have the theoretically correct amount you should wager for each given true count you will be playing with about an 11% risk of ruin, more or less depending on if you play all the shoes, regardless of how negative they are or if you run to the little boys room if things start to go south so that you miss those bad decks, that sort of thing.
If you lose make sure to adjust your betting ramp, the theoretically correct amount you should wager for 4k and 6k is different than for what you should wager with 5k. If you continue to adjust your numbers to the theoretically correct amount then you should grow your bank roll at the optimal speed and your risk of ruin should be 0%.(unless like, you get hit by a car or something)
Playing 2 hands instead of 1 also reduces the variance in the game allowing you to wager more money than if you were to play 1 hand. I'm not exactly sure how to quantify that so maybe someone will pitch in. I remember we had a discussion about it in an older forum post.
If you have any questions feel free to ask. I' not very good at conveying my message over text sometimes so I wouldn't be confused if I lost you. In fact, that's why I'm not sharing more information, it wouldn't fit in well with the format of my ...essay? lol

 

[JohnCrover]

If you plan on playing for the amount of money you're talking I would buy some software. It would make your life much easier. You can just input the parameters and play with a RoR and win rate you're comfortable with, and by the way, t
hat's a good game you're playing. I would....love to have a 6d game with 90% pen and those rules.

 

[gronbog]

The correct two spot bet is approximately 75% of your single spot bet on each spot. If your single spot bet is $100, then you would bet $75 on each of two spots.

 

[DSchles]

Okay, here we go again, *Clears throat*
In theory you should never have a max bet because your current wager should be a percentage of your bankroll in correlation with your advantage. For example, if your bank roll is 5k then at a TC of +1 (using hi-lo) your advantage should be 0.50%, therefore your wager should be 0.50% of 5,000 dollars, which is $25. At a TC 2 your advantage should be about 1%, therefore your max bet should be 1% of your 5k bank roll, therefore, your wager should be 1% of 5,000 dollars which is $50, at a true count of 3 your advantage is about 1.5%, therefore you should bet 1.5% of your bank roll, which is $75. For each TC of +1 the player advantage swings about 0.50%(with hi-lo). Once you have the correct theoretical amount you should wager for each true count you need to adjust your number so that you only bet 3/4 of that because the Kelly Criterion wasn't made for blackjack so the numbers need to be adjusted for the variance in blackjack.(Which should be about 1.411 please correct me Don) That means that if the true count is saying you should bet $100 then you should only bet $75 to account for the variance in Blackjack. Once you have the theoretically correct amount you should wager for each given true count you will be playing with about an 11% risk of ruin, more or less depending on if you play all the shoes, regardless of how negative they are or if you run to the little boys room if things start to go south so that you miss those bad decks, that sort of thing.
If you lose make sure to adjust your betting ramp, the theoretically correct amount you should wager for 4k and 6k is different than for what you should wager with 5k. If you continue to adjust your numbers to the theoretically correct amount then you should grow your bank roll at the optimal speed and your risk of ruin should be 0%.(unless like, you get hit by a car or something)
Playing 2 hands instead of 1 also reduces the variance in the game allowing you to wager more money than if you were to play 1 hand. I'm not exactly sure how to quantify that so maybe someone will pitch in. I remember we had a discussion about it in an older forum post.
If you have any questions feel free to ask. I' not very good at conveying my message over text sometimes so I wouldn't be confused if I lost you. In fact, that's why I'm not sharing more information, it wouldn't fit in well with the format of my ...essay? lol

So, a few tweaks. 1) Normal variance for a typical hand of blackjack is about 1.32 squared units, depending on rules. So your 1.41 is a bit too high.

2) And, if you play full Kelly and don't resize bets, ROR is 13.5%, not 11%.

3) If you bet optimally, playing two hands (of 73% each of the one-hand wager) instead of one, you don't reduce your variance. Your variance increases by the same percentage as your wager size (and hence e.v.), such that your ROR, which is proportional to variance/e.v., remains the same.

Don

 

[JohnCrover]

Thank you

 

[BoSox]

Okay, here we go again, *Clears throat*
In theory you should never have a max bet because your current wager should be a percentage of your bankroll in correlation with your advantage. For example, if your bank roll is 5k then at a TC of +1 (using hi-lo) your advantage should be 0.50%, therefore your wager should be 0.50% of 5,000 dollars, which is $25. At a TC 2 your advantage should be about 1%, therefore your max bet should be 1% of your 5k bank roll, therefore, your wager should be 1% of 5,000 dollars which is $50, at a true count of 3 your advantage is about 1.5%, therefore you should bet 1.5% of your bank roll, which is $75. For each TC of +1 the player advantage

Sharpe, please do not listen to John as he has this all wrong. At a TC of+1 you are now EVEN with the house, John, did not take into account the up front house advantage.

 

[DSchles]

Sharpe, please do not listen to John as he has this all wrong. At a TC of+1 you are now EVEN with the house, John, did not take into account the up front house advantage.

Let's split the difference. Depending on rules, the starting house edge in a shoe game can be anywhere from about 0.25% to 0.75%. Better rules can be, and often are, less than 0.50% house edge. And, Hi-Lo true counts, when you use index values, are often slightly MORE than 0.5% per TC. So, when you factor in these two concepts, the Hi-Lo shoe game +1 TC edge is NOT 0.50%, but neither is it zero. It is, more often than not, somewhere in between the two. See, for example, BJA3, Table 10.43, page 236, for a typical value -- in this case, 0.35%.

Don

 

[BoSox]

Let's split the difference. Depending on rules, the starting house edge in a shoe game can be anywhere from about 0.25% to 0.75%. Better rules can be, and often are, less than 0.50% house edge. And, Hi-Lo true counts, when you use index values, are often slightly MORE than 0.5% per TC. So, when you factor in these two concepts, the Hi-Lo shoe game +1 TC edge is NOT 0.50%, but neither is it zero. It is, more often than not, somewhere in between the two. See, for example, BJA3, Table 10.43, page 236, for a typical value -- in this case, 0.35%.

Don

Don, we have no idea at all if Sharpe uses index plays. What we do know is that he is playing a H17 game not reflected in the example you gave in Table 10.43 with a +1 TC edge of 0.35%. I would pick either chart on page 245 as being closer to the game that the OP is playing, where at +1 TC the edge is 0.18% or o.19%.

 

[Sharpe]

Thank you everyone for this information. John Crover, you didn’t lose me and I followed your “essay”. In fact, optimal betting based on edge was a little confusing when studying this concept. You putting it in actual dollar amounts based on BR helped. I plan to buy CVCX and CVBJ soon... I downloaded the demo version. Was a lot of information to digest and navigate through but I’m sure it doesn’t take long to get used to.

I too thought a TC1 was even with house and at TC 2 is when you have a .50% edge. Although Don also described what I figured all along. If the HE is below .50% then I would have a slight edge at TC1. Although, given my conservative approach to start, I may play TC1 at even, and increase my bet at TC2... is that normal?

Anyway, thanks again fellas. I appreciate the insight.

 

[BoSox]

Sharpe do you have any knowledge of index play? If not you need to learn at the minimum the I 18 index plays, this is a must. You can find them in BJ Attack 3rd Edition by Don Schlesinger.

 

[JohnCrover]

Thank you everyone for this information. John Crover, you didn’t lose me and I followed your “essay”. In fact, optimal betting based on edge was a little confusing when studying this concept. You putting it in actual dollar amounts based on BR helped. I plan to buy CVCX and CVBJ soon... I downloaded the demo version. Was a lot of information to digest and navigate through but I’m sure it doesn’t take long to get used to.

I too thought a TC1 was even with house and at TC 2 is when you have a .50% edge. Although Don also described what I figured all along. If the HE is below .50% then I would have a slight edge at TC1. Although, given my conservative approach to start, I may play TC1 at even, and increase my bet at TC2... is that normal?

Anyway, thanks again fellas. I appreciate the insight.

I believe that waiting until your TC is +2 before raising your bet is fine to do. One of the memebers on this site "Meistro" advocates for that or he has in the past if he doesn't now. There's plenty of approaches that work. There's a strong player who posts on this site frequently "KewlJ" that advocates for using max bets for practical reasons, he also advocates staying on 12 vs dealer 2 and 3 always and always standing on 16 vs dealer 10, for cover reasons. What I'm trying to get at is that there are plenty of approaches that work that aren't theoretically 100% correct but if you're going to adopt one of those strategies I strongly suggest using simulations to get a more correct answer than I can give you but I do believe that waiting until TC 2 to raise your bet is going to be profitable, especially in the game you're playing with such good penetrations.

 

[Sharpe]

Sharpe do you have any knowledge of index play? If not you need to learn at the minimum the I 18 index plays, this is a must. You can find them in BJ Attack 3rd Edition by Don Schlesinger.

BoSox, I'll admit, using index play is something I need spend more time studying. I have yet to actually sit down in a casino and count... I "feel" like I would use basic ones such as stay on hard 12 v 2 on a TC3+, Insurance at TC3+, Stand on 16 v 10 with a count of 0+... but I may need more time and practice before using in a casino. Forgive my ignorance if this is not what you're asking about...

I understand implementing the various index plays can add to your EV.. not sure on the exact number though.. Is it big enough to try and master before sitting down at the tables? I hope not because I'm anxious to test my skills at a casino

 

[Sharpe]

I believe that waiting until your TC is +2 before raising your bet is fine to do. One of the memebers on this site "Meistro" advocates for that or he has in the past if he doesn't now. There's plenty of approaches that work. There's a strong player who posts on this site frequently "KewlJ" that advocates for using max bets for practical reasons, he also advocates staying on 12 vs dealer 2 and 3 always and always standing on 16 vs dealer 10, for cover reasons. What I'm trying to get at is that there are plenty of approaches that work that aren't theoretically 100% correct but if you're going to adopt one of those strategies I strongly suggest using simulations to get a more correct answer than I can give you but I do believe that waiting until TC 2 to raise your bet is going to be profitable, especially in the game you're playing with such good penetrations.

Thanks, John. I will note the penetration varies by dealer. I was at the casino last week for a concert and was scouting the different tables... maybe it was the dealer but I don't remember the penetration being terrible in the past... Although it wasn't something I typically noticed much until recently.

By the way, it took every ounce of will power to not sit down and test out my counting ability.

 

[JohnCrover]

BoSox, I'll admit, using index play is something I need spend more time studying. I have yet to actually sit down in a casino and count... I "feel" like I would use basic ones such as stay on hard 12 v 2 on a TC3+, Insurance at TC3+, Stand on 16 v 10 with a count of 0+... but I may need more time and practice before using in a casino. Forgive my ignorance if this is not what you're asking about...

I understand implementing the various index plays can add to your EV.. not sure on the exact number though.. Is it big enough to try and master before sitting down at the tables? I hope not because I'm anxious to test my skills at a casino

You should watch this :

 

[stopgambling]

90% pen ... hmm. you can afford to raise your max bet at tc 5 , that is if you have a decent spread such as 1 to 12 . some people spread 1 to40( i have spread 1 to 50 . and higher ) . they can have their max bets at even higher tc

 

[stopgambling]

With a $5k bank who cares about back off.

 

[BoSox]

I plan to play all and spread between $10 - $80 or $10 - 2 x 40...

On the positive side, you have that great pen. With that great pen "next time keep this quiet" comes more volatility which is a good thing. However, you have a problem with a 5K playing bank. You could quickly find out how fast it can go down. One way you could increase EV and cut down on risk is by forgetting about the play all approach. I do not think you realize what you are up against on seeing true count frequencies percentages, which I will display for you to see.

Example game of 5.0/6 Counts less than zero TC Freq.% 45.21, at a TC of 0 - 25.91%. Taken together 71.12% of all the hands you will be playing with a disadvantage. Now, in your case at a TC of +1 where you barely break even has a TC Freq of 10.74% again taken together you are now at 81.86% of the hands hurting you or spinning your wheels. Still, think the game is going to be easy. Find ways to avoid playing a play all game. Wong out, sit out some hands, a little Wonging in, be creative you are going to need it.

 

[Sharpe]

...

 

[stopgambling]

Find ways to avoid playing a play all game. Wong out, sit out some hands, a little Wonging in, be creative you are going to need it.

that would be the other important part of your approach . Learn index from +10 to -5 , it will proof useful with a starting bankroll.