Understanding spread vs. decks...

[ZeeBabar]

They say you can win an SD game with a 1-3/4 spread, a DD game with a 1-5/6 spread, what is the minimum spread needed to beat an H17, 6 deck game, no S regular rules game (casino edge about 0.56) and 75% penn?

I ask this because, mostly due to character/personality issues (frugal past, lower middle class upbringing), I generally hate putting out over $200 on a single spot. I mostly play $25 min, DD because my max bet is generally $150. Often, I play two hands and a max bet of 2x$150. I balk at playing $25 min 6 deck games because of the much higher spread requirements. The $10-$15 tables are often crowded and slow because of ploppies tip-betting, side bets and odd amounts and I seem to get irritated at those.

My goal for the coming year is to learn to play the 6 deck games. I wonder if a 2 x $150 max bet, wonging out at TC -2 would be sufficient for playing 6 deck games?

 

[xengrifter]

They say you can win an SD game with a 1-3/4 spread, a DD game with a 1-5/6 spread, what is the minimum spread needed to beat an H17, 6 deck game, no S regular rules game (casino edge about 0.56) and 75% penn?

I ask this because, mostly due to character/personality issues (frugal past, lower middle class upbringing), I generally hate putting out over $200 on a single spot.

Your confusion is surprisingly common - "spread" is correctly calc'd from the top down, NOT bottom up...
...your top bet is the constant --

for example =

1D = 50-200
2D = 25-200
6D = 10-200 (semi-play-all)

I wonder if a 2 x $150 max bet, wonging out at TC -2 would be sufficient for playing 6 deck games?

Simple answer: Yes...
...and you can wong in with $50

 

[So_what_MD]

I don't calculate my bet minimum up or maximum down. I use omega 2 side count aces. I play with 15,000 BR at 1 Kelly. Casino edge here is about 0.5%. with average 2 extra face per deck I start betting real. I use true count divided by 4 less house edge, imples (4/4)-0.5 or 0.5 percent my edge. At 1 Kelly I play 0.5% BR, $75 a square or $35 a square for 3 squares. To reduce exposure I actually play $25 per square for 3 (roughly 0.7 Kelly). Each additional face I increase one unit, implies TC 6 for $50 a square; TC8 $75 each; TC10 $100 each and cap there. In case I split face 28 times and lose them all to a 6, a 5 then find a face. If I don't cap, TC 18 = 200 a sq for 3; 28 splits and 2 other units = 30 x 200 on the table, if I lose my BR will be crushed by 40% which is too risky. Not to mention my new unit will become 15. Will take me forever to get back the 40% I lose in ONE hand.
I pay equal attention to finding tables. House is supposed to bust 28% of the time, or roughly 1 in 4 hands. If it doesn't bust for 10 hands in a row I know deck is not random, hence I can't predict outcomes with confidence. I also find clumping effect reduces my edge, like TC 12 down to last 2
Decks and house gets 6 cards 21 = no count can over come that.
I also pay a lot of attention to my betting aggressiveness. Because of the natural reaction of our Anterior Cingulated Cortex to the Psychological Effect of Risk Taking we tend to be more aggressive when we lose (commonly known as on-tilt). I find it harder to put $100 a sq when I am winning.
Can some guru please comment whether I am correct? FYI - I win every year in the last 19 except for last year, cos I lost big right before year end.
I use $350 as my certainty equivalence. If I don't go home, I find it hard to fall asleep if I lose back the 350 and down my own $200. Sure next session I may get back $600, just the previous night I couldn't sleep. Many years ago I started with BR 500. I played 2-3 Kelly in the beginning. Blackjack god kept me alive. I rolled that into 44,000. I took dividend out and pretty much stopped. I then played only a few times a year for table conditioning. Recently I started again. Math tells me I should double my BR every 1000 hours. I have done way better than that in 19 out of 20 years. I either belong to the far far right of the bell curve or my non scientific approach actually works. Look forward to your comment.

 

[xengrifter]

I pay equal attention to finding tables. House is supposed to bust 28% of the time, or roughly 1 in 4 hands. If it doesn't bust for 10 hands in a row I know deck is not random, hence I can't predict outcomes with confidence. I also find clumping effect reduces my edge, like TC 12 down to last 2
Decks and house gets 6 cards 21 = no count can over come that.

That sort of subjective sampling sounds rather unscientific...
...but I like it.

 

[Meistro]

well it's probably no worse than my 'only play at the table if a hot chick is dealing' method of game selection

 

[So_what_MD]

That sort of subjective sampling sounds rather unscientific...
...but I like it.

Thanx Xeng. I have played BJ for many years. Started recording since 1997. Only lost one year out of last 20. From my humble experience, there are a LOT more to the game than math. I am just not smart enough to understand what/how/why, much less convert everything at the table to help me make my decisions. Identifying table, may sound like voodoo, but is a big part of my game and it has proven to make me a lot of money.

 

[gronbog]

Identifying table, may sound like voodoo, but is a big part of my game and it has proven to make me a lot of money.

There's no way for you to know whether it has helped you or simply not hurt you. In my opinion, it's the latter.

 

[So_what_MD]

There's no way for you to know whether it has helped you or simply not hurt you. In my opinion, it's the latter.

Gron: You maybe right cos I haven't gone down that road hence I wouldn't have known the outcome. Base on 20 years of playing, when I back count at a table, house is busting 1 in 8 times, finding crazy combinations to make 21, BJ, back to 21, then backend blackjack, players not getting cards, cards clumping, I am 80% certain if I get a count I will get destroyed. Science or voodoo???

My friend has won the lottery second, third prize several times. He read this book 30 years ago that winning lottery numbers CLUMP ... world wide, not just from one set of balls. I said "you are OUT OF YOUR MIND." Until he showed me the spread sheet. Sure enough, some numbers did appear consistently more in a period of 1-2 months ... for the previous 5 years. That book did not guarantee first prize, but second or third, over large samples. And he did. I don't know about you. I know I am not smart enough to understand and explain 10% of what's all happening around me. Haven't you ever met a person well groomed, polite, educated, impeccable profile, but you just DONT TRUST HIM??? What is that??? INTUITION.

I know casino mgrs very well. They say --- Some tables win all night, some lose all night. Something to do with house's bust rate and the combinations of the cards. When a table is losing, a guy walks up, they already know this guy is gonna win. Every 2 hours cards get shuffled out, 1. Change for the better; 2. For the worse; 3. For the same. With small population 90% of the time the outcome disagrees with EV. But 99.999995 of the time the casino's take end up exactly what EV is over a week or a month.

I look for busting tables, tables with happy people with stacks of chips in front of them. Problem being I can only play behind when there is a count. I lose my edge by not splitting 9's or DD A8. But I win. I play 0.7 Kelly. Math tells me doubling BR every 1300 hours. I outperform that by a MILE in the last 19 years. Luckily where I am there is no heat as long as I keep my BR under 50,000 at 0.7 Kelly.

Bottomline, until someone can show me a scientific package that can explain everything I will have no choice but to mix with INTUITION. I know it sounds voodoo. If you have gone thru as many years of agony as I have ... getting beaten up by playing perfect AO2 you will understand why I included INTUITION.

 

[Splittingten's]

Hey everyone, so I just finished playing 9,199 hands on the strategy trainer and i'm up about 2,600. The rules were the same as the ones in my casino except the pen is 50% worse in my casino. They cut 2 decks off of a 6 deck game while the strategy trainer only cuts off 1.
I was wondering if ya'll think i'm ready to hit the tables.

 

[Meistro]

"I was wondering if ya'll think i'm ready to hit the tables."

take a video of you playing the strategy trainer for 3 shoes (betting and making play deviations in accordance with the count) and I will tell you if you are ready or not. assuming you have already learned how to count, memorized the 20 or so most important indexes and understand how to do the true count conversion.

 

[So_what_MD]

That sort of subjective sampling sounds rather unscientific...
...but I like it.

Drifter:
I use AO2 side count aces. How do u convert rich or short aces in betting and in playing. I have developed my own way. Wanna hear your opinion first. Thank you in advance.

 

[So_what_MD]

Hey everyone, so I just finished playing 9,199 hands on the strategy trainer and i'm up about 2,600. The rules were the same as the ones in my casino except the pen is 50% worse in my casino. They cut 2 decks off of a 6 deck game while the strategy trainer only cuts off 1.
I was wondering if ya'll think i'm ready to hit the tables.

Split: I have played and won for 20 years. If u may allow me to share my humble experience,
1. Math (easiest part). Don't lose sleep if u forget an index, as long as u r close. Cos remaining decks is measured by visual estimation anyways.
2. Patience to wait for the opportunity. I am lucky my casino here allows me to back count. Some nights I don't play a hand in 4 hours.
3. The discipline to make the right move; we tend to be a lot more aggressive when we are losing (Mass General Hospital and HMS proved that in 2001), it is harder to place max bet when you are winning;
4. Build your bankroll with casino money. Do NOT set aside big money as BR with big dreams that u gonna get rich. Play with money you are prepared to lose, not that u wanna lose it. Find smallest table limit, like $2 or $5. 2000 BR with 1% edge u play 1% ur money (1 Kelly) or $20. You will go through heart breaking times that you just can't stop the bleeding. You will also feel like 10 foot tall at times. Adjust your BR % every 20% change. Allow 1000 hours to double your BR, if you can earn your way to 16,000 or 32,000 from a starting BR of 2000, equivalent to a B.Sc., I can assure you 99.99% chance no casino can touch your money. Make sure drop to 0.4-0.5 Kelly at that point. You will be blamed for certain moves, you will be kicked out, you have to care for others feelings cos u don't wanna fight, but u also wanna be allowed to make the right moves, there is a balance there; books tell u not to tip, WRONG. Put a dollar or 50 cents behind each big bet, 500 times only cost you $250. How much u pay for a class? Some dealers/supervisors will turn a blind eye, tray is not their money, but tip is. Tip until u become a threatening player. There is no more back rooming, so u won't get beat up. Good character training. U will be a better person with better temperament if you can survive this game.
WELCOME AND GET STARTED!!!
Oh, one more thing, NEVER think could have been or should have been. You made the decision, now live with it. NEVER take the happiness or sadness outside of the casino. Do NOT count your money constantly. Ur goal is to play like a dealer, make no mistakes, never sweat the money, odds and Kelly will take care of that. If u see a counter constantly counting his money and stacking it nice and neat = amateur. Try to find a change bucket or big coffee cup and throw all chips in there. Before u go in, run through all tough scenarios in your head, when it happens later, PUT ONE FOOT IN FRONT OF THE OTHER and start walking. Make sure take a 20 minute break every hour, like the dealer, stop when u r tired.

Good luck!!!

 

[gronbog]

when I back count at a table, house is busting 1 in 8 times, finding crazy combinations to make 21, BJ, back to 21, then backend blackjack, players not getting cards, cards clumping, I am 80% certain if I get a count I will get destroyed. Science or voodoo???

Voodoo

 

[Splittingten's]

Meistro, 16 s vs dealer 10 at +1. 15 S against dealer 10 at +4 XX splits vs 4 @ +6, 5@+5 6@+4- Soft 20 splits against 6 5 4 using the same TC's, respectively. 14 surrenders against dealers 10 at +5. Soft 19 doubles against dealers 5 at +2 doubles against dealers 5 at +1. Doesn't double against dealers 6 at -1. 12 stands against dealers 2 at +1. 12 stands against dealers 3 at +2.5 . soft 17 doubles against 2 at +1. 99 splits against 7 at +5. 10 doubles against 10 at +4. 9 doubles against 7 at +6. Take insurance at a true count at +3. I'm probably missing a few BS deviations. I have BS down to the T for the game i'm playing .
Are you sure 3 shoes is enough? I'm using hi-lo.

 

[Meistro]

"Meistro, 16 s vs dealer 10 at +1."

16 v 10 @ +0

14 v T is a surrender at +3

" 12 stands against dealers 2 at +1. 12 stands against dealers 3 at +2.5 ."

you have these reversed, 12 stands against 2 @ +3, 12 stands against 3 at +2

 

[Splittingten's]

Yeah, the indexes for 12 vs 2 and 3 I know. I was just typing too fast. Thanks for clarification on the other ones. I'm going to have another look over the I18 because it can't hurt and the fab 4. I will get working on that video.

 

[Meistro]

also you should obtain a shoe, discard tray and six decks of cards and be practicing at home with a real set up so that you can work on skills like deck estimation

 

[Splittingten's]

I'm ahead of you on that one. I was planning on working on deck estimation. I have about 120 decks in stock right now. Keep on suggesting things though. You might catch something I missed.