value of 25 cents for blackjack

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#1
assuming conditions like 6 deck, H17, das, da2 no surrender and running count of 0 so house edge roughly .5%


you can either bet $5 or $7.5. you receive an extra 25 cents when you get a blackjack if you bet $7.5.


probability of blackjack = 1 in 20.7 or 4.8%

so the value of an extra 25 cents, 1 in 20 times is going to be around 1 cent. (1.2 cents)

so the normal expected loss would be 7.5 * .5% or 3.75 cents per hand
so your expected loss is actually 2.5 cents per hand, when accounting for the probability of a blackjack and the 1.66:1 payout.

This is the same expected loss for $5 @ .5%.

So you are indifferent between either bet.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#2
"So you are indifferent between either bet."

Surely not. If the e.v.s for two bets are identical, then you should always choose the one that has the lowest variance. Your bankroll will fluctuate 50% more to either direction if you make all the bets $7.50, instead of $5. Do you want the wilder ride or the tamer ride?

Some may argue that when e.v. is negative, you actually want the greater variance, because it's the only way you have a chance to win. Suppose e.v. were negative and variance were zero. Then you'd be guaranteed to lose all the time! But, I'm not sure I care for that argument here.

Don
 

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#3
Another reason to opt for the $5 bet is game speed. Rainbow bets slow down the game, especially if the bets must be constantly broken down. They also might induce a dealer error, so the situation is not entirely clear cut.
 

sagefr0g

Well-Known Member
#4
questions:
assuming fluctuation is equivalent on either side of the mean and that ev is positive (say some constant +tc) and that one's bankroll can withstand a range of bets.
what's preferable, large bets or small bets, a wild ride or a tamer ride?
me i prefer the option of a very, very small (tiny) bet with the option of making larger bets. but is there actually an advantage having such options?
 
#5
If BR is unlimited, flat betting minimum on negative counts and $500 (or higher) in all possible positive counts yields you the maximum profit. Thus, if you have a $100k bankroll. You are playing a $5 game and your max. Bet is $100, then playing $100 in all positive counts gets you more than if you were playing $10 at TC+1, $30 at TC+2, etc.
 

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#6
At that point you would want to spread horizontally. But yes your bet is determined by your advantage and your bankroll, not the table minimum.
 
#7
Hi everyone, I know this is slightly off topic but is a tc of +1 positive E.V in a 6 deck game, late surrender, dealer hits soft 17 DAS, No re-splitt aces, BJ pays 3 to 2?
I was wondering because I don't know if I should increase my bet at a TC of +1 or just wait until a TC of +2. Thanks you all.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#8
Splittingten's said:
Hi everyone, I know this is slightly off topic but is a tc of +1 positive E.V in a 6 deck game, late surrender, dealer hits soft 17 DAS, No re-splitt aces, BJ pays 3 to 2?
I was wondering because I don't know if I should increase my bet at a TC of +1 or just wait until a TC of +2. Thanks you all.
Depending on the count you use (always state that!) and the penetration, for Hi-Lo, a +1 TC edge varies from 0.30% to 0.34% for the player. So, after you account for variance, you should be betting about 0.25% of your bankroll. With a $10,000 bank, that's a $25 bet.

Don
 

Meistro

Well-Known Member
#10
that's a rough approximation but a more accurate gauge of advantage per true count can be found through simulation. the rule set makes a significant difference. also keep in mind this is an average of TC 1 to TC 1.99.
 

DSchles

Well-Known Member
#11
xengrifter said:
That sounds more like your RPC ... isn't HILO more like .50 per +1?
Not sure what your point is. We aren't discussing the value of a true point. You first need the starting disadvantage; then you add the value of a true point, which, for Hi-Lo, is not just roughly 0.50, but also what any indices you use are worth, to add to the mix. It turns out that, for the games I mentioned, the increment is 0.62-0.63.

Don
 
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#12
DSchles said:
We aren't discussing the value of a true point. You first need the starting disadvantage; then you add the value of a true point, which, for Hi-Lo, is not just roughly 0.50, but also what any indices you use are worth, to add to the mix. It turns out that, for the games I mentioned, the increment is 0.62-0.63.
Got it!
DSchles said:
Not sure what you're point is.
My point was... I thought you had made a mistake...I should have known better.:oops:
 
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