Variance/deviation

[Morphy]

Is it possible to predict the length it will last (both positive and neg) ?
Any special way to handle it when it hits your game ?

 

[KewlJ]

The short answer is no. In the short term run almost anything can and will occur. You might find my thread entitled "the rollercoaster that is card counting" interesting as it is relatable.

However the good new is that computer software allows us easy access to data like standard deviations which can express the likelihood (and unlikelihood) of different ranges of results. And with this information you can determine appropriate bankroll for surviving all but the most extreme "runs".

 

[Morphy]

Thank you kewlj!

 

[Meistro]

Card counting blackjack is like going on a random walk. There is no way to predict whether you will walk left or right and no way to predict how long your meandering to the left or to the right will last. But you can calculate how likely it is that you will lose 20% of your bankroll given a particular betting scheme, or the STD deviation of an hours play (how likely it is that you will swing X $ in an hour of play).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/68–95–99.7_rule

 

[Morphy]

thanks

 

[Morphy]

so using the information from a sim. If it says my deviation is
+/- $200 dollars for one session I can expect to with or lose that much. If I win more or less does this indicate incorrect play?

I guess what I am getting at is can being outside of a predicted deviation help pinpoint mistakes?

 

[Morphy]

The short answer is no. In the short term run almost anything can and will occur. You might find my thread entitled "the rollercoaster that is card counting" interesting as it is relatable.

However the good new is that computer software allows us easy access to data like standard deviations which can express the likelihood (and unlikelihood) of different ranges of results. And with this information you can determine appropriate bankroll for surviving all but the most extreme "runs".

and yes I have been following that thread for some time now

 

[Meistro]

"If it says my deviation is
+/- $200 dollars for one session I can expect to with or lose that much. "


If your STD deviation for 1 hour is $200 then winning or losing $200 is a 1 STD deviation event. So 68% of the time your results will be within this range.

If winning or losing $1000 is a 2 STD deviation event then 95% of the time your results will be within the +1000 to -1000 range, within an hour.

 

[Morphy]

So to be clear that is a yes? if i am outside the STD then i am making errors?

 

[Meistro]

so using the information from a sim. If it says my deviation is
+/- $200 dollars for one session I can expect to with or lose that much. If I win more or less does this indicate incorrect play?

No. If you have a STD deviation of $200 for one session you will be outside of this result around 32% of the time even if you are employing the strategy perfectly.

 

[Morphy]

ok I understand now.

Is there anyway at all to detect mistakes in your play?

 

[21forme]

Ask surveillance to see tapes of your play

Seriously, best way is to play with CVBJ and it will notify you of mistakes.

 

[Morphy]

Ask surveillance to see tapes of your play

Seriously, best way is to play with CVBJ and it will notify you of mistakes.

lol!

well thats good news because i do have it an use it. the only thing that irritates me is that deck estimation is difficult. I am much better in real life at deck estimation then on the computer. Its difficult for me to eyeball the screen. Just me or does anyone else feel the same?