When do I enter the "long run"?
- Thread starter Solomon
- Start date
Depends what you are playing and why you are playing that particular game.
Poker: Tens of thousands of hands and you are on you're way to accurately analyze.
Blackjack: A year of grinding out a few shoes a day, 4 days a week.
All other games I cannot say because the edge is to great to conquer in the longrun.
Poker: Tens of thousands of hands and you are on you're way to accurately analyze.
Blackjack: A year of grinding out a few shoes a day, 4 days a week.
All other games I cannot say because the edge is to great to conquer in the longrun.
when???
long run as far as i know isn't a quantitative mathematical term so it's hard to put a number on it. maybe for a particular game one could say the long run is beyond the games N0.
N0, however is a quantitative mathematical term and can have a when associated with it.
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/refer/N0.htm (Archive copy)
pretty much reaching the N0 for a particular game is the point in time and play where one negative and one positive standard deviation will cancel each other out to the point where expected value prevails.
long run as far as i know isn't a quantitative mathematical term so it's hard to put a number on it. maybe for a particular game one could say the long run is beyond the games N0.
N0, however is a quantitative mathematical term and can have a when associated with it.
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/refer/N0.htm (Archive copy)
pretty much reaching the N0 for a particular game is the point in time and play where one negative and one positive standard deviation will cancel each other out to the point where expected value prevails.
That's part of it if you ask me but here's a few more personal observations.
When you understand that other players decisions do not have an affect on your overall day. They may affect the outcome of a hand but not your day.
When every decision you make requires no thought and your only delay should be for cover.
When you always know how much of the shoe remains to be played.
When you know the TC without doing the math in your head and you know what you are betting before the dealer is done scooping up the cards.
When the shift supervisor can stand on one corner and the pit boss can stand on the other corner of the table and you can not only make the correct plays but carry on a conversation with them both while showing no emotion.
When you truly understand the value of money.
When you never gamble while you play.
When you lose the inner excitement of playing Blackjack.
When you never lose your cool no matter what anyone else does at your table, in fact you can smile.
When you are able to play heads up with the fastest dealer in the house and never make a mistake.
When you never get mad that the dealer got the Blackjack and not you.
When you are able to go to bed after playing and fall asleep right away.
When you are able to relate with every post on this site.
When you are able to answer a post like this one and have a 1000 more answers but you don't want to make your friends read any more. :laugh:
Well maybe 2000...JtMM
When you understand that other players decisions do not have an affect on your overall day. They may affect the outcome of a hand but not your day.
When every decision you make requires no thought and your only delay should be for cover.
When you always know how much of the shoe remains to be played.
When you know the TC without doing the math in your head and you know what you are betting before the dealer is done scooping up the cards.
When the shift supervisor can stand on one corner and the pit boss can stand on the other corner of the table and you can not only make the correct plays but carry on a conversation with them both while showing no emotion.
When you truly understand the value of money.
When you never gamble while you play.
When you lose the inner excitement of playing Blackjack.
When you never lose your cool no matter what anyone else does at your table, in fact you can smile.
When you are able to play heads up with the fastest dealer in the house and never make a mistake.
When you never get mad that the dealer got the Blackjack and not you.
When you are able to go to bed after playing and fall asleep right away.
When you are able to relate with every post on this site.
When you are able to answer a post like this one and have a 1000 more answers but you don't want to make your friends read any more. :laugh:
Well maybe 2000...JtMM
You begin the long run when you begin to play at a +EV. Assuming you play perfectly (lol), when you achieve your combined win rates in dollars for all games you have played, then you have reached the long run.
To simplify, the way I see it, if you always play a game that should win you $10 an hour, when you reach a point that is consistent with that dollar rate per hour played, you have reached the long run, and your next hand begins a new long run. A long run may be a couple of hours in one case and a couple of years in another.
"Long" is a term of art, and reflects the reality that you are more and more likely to achieve your expected win rate the longer you play (provided you have sufficient bankroll--hence the need for RoR planning), which of course is another way of saying the long run is indeterminate.
Wishing you many, many long runs in your relatively short lifetime!
To simplify, the way I see it, if you always play a game that should win you $10 an hour, when you reach a point that is consistent with that dollar rate per hour played, you have reached the long run, and your next hand begins a new long run. A long run may be a couple of hours in one case and a couple of years in another.
"Long" is a term of art, and reflects the reality that you are more and more likely to achieve your expected win rate the longer you play (provided you have sufficient bankroll--hence the need for RoR planning), which of course is another way of saying the long run is indeterminate.
Wishing you many, many long runs in your relatively short lifetime!
Nice
I nominate for Post Of The Month!
Friend,
CP
mathman said:
That's part of it if you ask me but here's a few more personal observations.
When you understand that other players decisions do not have an affect on your overall day. They may affect the outcome of a hand but not your day.
When every decision you make requires no thought and your only delay should be for cover.
When you always know how much of the shoe remains to be played.
When you know the TC without doing the math in your head and you know what you are betting before the dealer is done scooping up the cards.
When the shift supervisor can stand on one corner and the pit boss can stand on the other corner of the table and you can not only make the correct plays but carry on a conversation with them both while showing no emotion.
When you truly understand the value of money.
When you never gamble while you play.
When you lose the inner excitement of playing Blackjack.
When you never lose your cool no matter what anyone else does at your table, in fact you can smile.
When you are able to play heads up with the fastest dealer in the house and never make a mistake.
When you never get mad that the dealer got the Blackjack and not you.
When you are able to go to bed after playing and fall asleep right away.
When you are able to relate with every post on this site.
When you are able to answer a post like this one and have a 1000 more answers but you don't want to make your friends read any more. :laugh:
Well maybe 2000...JtMM
When you understand that other players decisions do not have an affect on your overall day. They may affect the outcome of a hand but not your day.
When every decision you make requires no thought and your only delay should be for cover.
When you always know how much of the shoe remains to be played.
When you know the TC without doing the math in your head and you know what you are betting before the dealer is done scooping up the cards.
When the shift supervisor can stand on one corner and the pit boss can stand on the other corner of the table and you can not only make the correct plays but carry on a conversation with them both while showing no emotion.
When you truly understand the value of money.
When you never gamble while you play.
When you lose the inner excitement of playing Blackjack.
When you never lose your cool no matter what anyone else does at your table, in fact you can smile.
When you are able to play heads up with the fastest dealer in the house and never make a mistake.
When you never get mad that the dealer got the Blackjack and not you.
When you are able to go to bed after playing and fall asleep right away.
When you are able to relate with every post on this site.
When you are able to answer a post like this one and have a 1000 more answers but you don't want to make your friends read any more. :laugh:
Well maybe 2000...JtMM
Friend,
CP
mathman said:
That's part of it if you ask me but here's a few more personal observations.
When you understand that other players decisions do not have an affect on your overall day. They may affect the outcome of a hand but not your day.
When every decision you make requires no thought and your only delay should be for cover.
When you always know how much of the shoe remains to be played.
When you know the TC without doing the math in your head and you know what you are betting before the dealer is done scooping up the cards.
When the shift supervisor can stand on one corner and the pit boss can stand on the other corner of the table and you can not only make the correct plays but carry on a conversation with them both while showing no emotion.
When you truly understand the value of money.
When you never gamble while you play.
When you lose the inner excitement of playing Blackjack.
When you never lose your cool no matter what anyone else does at your table, in fact you can smile.
When you are able to play heads up with the fastest dealer in the house and never make a mistake.
When you never get mad that the dealer got the Blackjack and not you.
When you are able to go to bed after playing and fall asleep right away.
When you are able to relate with every post on this site.
When you are able to answer a post like this one and have a 1000 more answers but you don't want to make your friends read any more. :laugh:
Well maybe 2000...JtMM
When you understand that other players decisions do not have an affect on your overall day. They may affect the outcome of a hand but not your day.
When every decision you make requires no thought and your only delay should be for cover.
When you always know how much of the shoe remains to be played.
When you know the TC without doing the math in your head and you know what you are betting before the dealer is done scooping up the cards.
When the shift supervisor can stand on one corner and the pit boss can stand on the other corner of the table and you can not only make the correct plays but carry on a conversation with them both while showing no emotion.
When you truly understand the value of money.
When you never gamble while you play.
When you lose the inner excitement of playing Blackjack.
When you never lose your cool no matter what anyone else does at your table, in fact you can smile.
When you are able to play heads up with the fastest dealer in the house and never make a mistake.
When you never get mad that the dealer got the Blackjack and not you.
When you are able to go to bed after playing and fall asleep right away.
When you are able to relate with every post on this site.
When you are able to answer a post like this one and have a 1000 more answers but you don't want to make your friends read any more. :laugh:
Well maybe 2000...JtMM
Machinist said:
Wow Mathman!!!!!! My pick of the litter is " When you lose the inner excitement of playing Blackjack." This goes for my line of work also.... You are truely there when it becomes a "Business", nothing more nothing less...
Hats off to you Mathman.....i am humbled...
Machinist
Hats off to you Mathman.....i am humbled...
Machinist
.
It's easy. I use an earphone disguised as a hearing aid, and my partner standing in a place to see my hand but still out of earshot tells me each and every play to make. He also keeps the count for me. No sweat.
*****
The shift supervisor is my brother-in-law and the pit boss was hired on my recommendation. They have been very helpful to me in promoting my card counting career.
*****
Basic strategy is more or less reflex action, as are index plays, especially at 0 and above. I use KO counting system which barely requires any brainpower whatsoever. In fact, I can incorporate an ace side count (chips help), do a little key card tracking, and be on the lookout for hole card and other flashes, while carrying on a fun conversation with the FS and PB. Did I mention a little innocent flirting with the blond at second base?
*****
The shift supervisor is my brother-in-law and the pit boss was hired on my recommendation. They have been very helpful to me in promoting my card counting career.
*****
Basic strategy is more or less reflex action, as are index plays, especially at 0 and above. I use KO counting system which barely requires any brainpower whatsoever. In fact, I can incorporate an ace side count (chips help), do a little key card tracking, and be on the lookout for hole card and other flashes, while carrying on a fun conversation with the FS and PB. Did I mention a little innocent flirting with the blond at second base?
Not old enough to need a hearing aid.
Not related to any casino staff.
I can basic strategy or index play above 0 on reflex. Have not yet effectively incorporated an ace side count, key card tracking, hole card, or flashing. Didn't even see any of the last two when I was in LV. Can carry on mediocre conversations with FS and PB, but would not use the adjective fun. Flirting, well, that's second nature. Does staring at all the eye candy in the stores count?
It's easy, huh? I'm working on it.
Not related to any casino staff.
I can basic strategy or index play above 0 on reflex. Have not yet effectively incorporated an ace side count, key card tracking, hole card, or flashing. Didn't even see any of the last two when I was in LV. Can carry on mediocre conversations with FS and PB, but would not use the adjective fun. Flirting, well, that's second nature. Does staring at all the eye candy in the stores count?
It's easy, huh?
I'm working on it.
flyingwind said:
Not old enough to need a hearing aid.
Not related to any casino staff.
I can basic strategy or index play above 0 on reflex. Have not yet effectively incorporated an ace side count, key card tracking, hole card, or flashing. Didn't even see any of the last two when I was in LV. Can carry on mediocre conversations with FS and PB, but would not use the adjective fun. Flirting, well, that's second nature. Does staring at all the eye candy in the stores count?
It's easy, huh? I'm working on it.
Not related to any casino staff.
I can basic strategy or index play above 0 on reflex. Have not yet effectively incorporated an ace side count, key card tracking, hole card, or flashing. Didn't even see any of the last two when I was in LV. Can carry on mediocre conversations with FS and PB, but would not use the adjective fun. Flirting, well, that's second nature. Does staring at all the eye candy in the stores count?
It's easy, huh?
I'm working on it.
You will finally reach the "long run" when you reach infinity. In other words; you will NEVER enter the "long run". You can only APPROACH the "long run".
Just as Einstein said that it's mathematically possible to walk through a wall and have all of your molecules miss the molecules of the wall; it's mathematically POSSIBLE to have an advantage of 99.99% and NEVER win a hand for your whole lifetime.
For the purpose of a gambling discussion however, the "long run" is usually expressed in terms of the percentage of certainty that your results will be accurate. A statistician will express it as such: For an advantage of x, after y hands, you can be z% certain that your actual results will lie within the margin of error. So obviously; the higher your advantage, the sooner you will meet these conditions. And the sooner you will be within approach of the "long run".
Just as Einstein said that it's mathematically possible to walk through a wall and have all of your molecules miss the molecules of the wall; it's mathematically POSSIBLE to have an advantage of 99.99% and NEVER win a hand for your whole lifetime.
For the purpose of a gambling discussion however, the "long run" is usually expressed in terms of the percentage of certainty that your results will be accurate. A statistician will express it as such: For an advantage of x, after y hands, you can be z% certain that your actual results will lie within the margin of error. So obviously; the higher your advantage, the sooner you will meet these conditions. And the sooner you will be within approach of the "long run".