question regarding positive count frequencies

  • ascension

    question regarding positive count frequencies

    my guess is that with more decks their will be less frequency of positive counts…but what is the estimated frequency of positive counts i can expect for single deck, dd, 6d, 8d?? thanks, and can someone explain why this is…thanks guys.

  • Friendo

    50-50

    For all numbers of decks and all balanced counts, the count is positive 50% of the time.

  • ascension

    thanks

    let me rephrase my original question, if i am only playing at a count per deck equal/greater than +2 what is my expected frequency that this will occur per shoe/deck…thanks for timely response friendo.

  • BrianCP

     

    Check out the Freak Charts from this excerpt by Arnold Snyder. http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/6DeckText.htm

    Remember that each time the true count increases by one, the player advantage increases by approximately .5%. According to this freak chart for 6 decks 75% dealt, 22/100 hands will be at or above a TC of +2.

  • Sucker

     

    This question cannot be answered without knowing the penetration.

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: Friendo said:
    For all numbers of decks and all balanced counts, the count is positive 50% of the time.

    Well, the TC will probably be zero around 40-45% of the time, but of the other 55-60% of the time the count will be positive around 50% (depending on whether you round/truncate/floor/etc.).

    Quote: ascension said:
    if i am only playing at a count per deck equal/greater than +2 what is my expected frequency that this will occur per shoe/deck.

    It completely depends on the penetration. The deeper they cut, the more positive counts you will see. The charts in Blackjack Attack give the TC frequencies for most situations.

    -Sonny-

  • ascension

     

    thanks guys! i will check the charts out most definately when i get the chance, appreciate all the answers and insight :P

  • Friendo

     

    Quote: Sonny said:
    It completely depends on the penetration. The deeper they cut, the more positive counts you will see.

    Can’t remember the reason for this. It superficially seems to contradict the True Count Theorem, but, of course, it doesn’t.

    I must crack open Blackjack Attack III tonight.

  • ascension

     

    i really need to get this book, i have (to date) only purchased professional blackjack by wong and though it has given me a lot of insight and started me in the right direction, i think it is time to broaden the horizon a little more and i’ve hurd nothing but good things about bja 3…thanks sonny.

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: ascension said:
    my guess is that with more decks their will be less frequency of positive counts…but what is the estimated frequency of positive counts i can expect for single deck, dd, 6d, 8d?? thanks, and can someone explain why this is…thanks guys.

    the (info from Wong’s book) image below may help:
    f% is the tc frequency percentages

  • ascension

     

    so if i’m reading those charts correctly by arnold snyder in the link…if i use a 1-16 spread playing a avg. 6deck game with 4.5d pen using system 1 i can expect an hourly rate of 2.90 units, given i can play a hundred hands in an hour? this seems to good to be true….i found this a really interesting read so far briancp (thankyou!), interesting that in a 6d game with 4.5d pen house and player never have more than a 3.5% adv.

  • tthree

     

    Quote: ascension said:
    so if i’m reading those charts correctly by arnold snyder in the link…if i use a 1-16 spread playing a avg. 6deck game with 4.5d pen using system 1 i can expect an hourly rate of 2.90 units, given i can play a hundred hands in an hour? this seems to good to be true….i found this a really interesting read so far briancp (thankyou!), interesting that in a 6d game with 4.5d pen house and player never have more than a 3.5% adv.

    It doesn’t say you will never have an advantage over 3.5%, only that it happens closer to 0% than .5%.

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