RANT -200 units in 80 hrs of play.

  • White Guy

    RANT -200 units in 80 hrs of play.

    I have played more in the last 60 Days than any other 60 days I am pretty sure. Three sessions pretty much are to blame for all the losses.

    Good news? I won a big side bet that actually makes me even over that period. Plus due to the fact that two of 3 said sessions were rated in a HL room I have a lot of good comps flooding in. The actual value of said comps is probably equal to 50 percent of the actual losses. I think ratholing may have helped.

    Motivated me to read Comp City. Just started.

  • Bondy3

     

    Quote: White Guy said:
    I have played more in the last 60 Days than any other 60 days I am pretty sure. Three sessions pretty much are to blame for all the losses.

    Good news? I won a big side bet that actually makes me even over that period. Plus due to the fact that two of 3 said sessions were rated in a HL room I have a lot of good comps flooding in. The actual value of said comps is probably equal to 50 percent of the actual losses. I think ratholing may have helped.

    Motivated me to read Comp City. Just started.

    being down sucks

    trust me, I know the feeling so do most people here on this forum

  • BrianCP

     

    I know the feeling even though I’ve never been to a casino! I was running a six deck with local rules at home (just dealing to 4 imaginary BS players and to myself) while counting and altering my bets like I planned on doing later.

    I don’t remember how far down I was, but it was at the bottom end of probable variance. I didn’t think I could lose nearly as much (imaginary) money as I did spreading 5-75 on a six deck game.

    Honestly, I’m glad I had such a bad swing while I was practicing. It showed me how bad the bad streaks can get and how much you can actually lose despite playing with an advantage.

  • Friendo

    Believe!

    During my cratering/ass-whipping, I ran from all-time high to all-time low in 15 hours, for a slide of around 460 units, putting me well into the red for the year.

    Highlights of this exciting period included:

    • 110 units lost on one shoe
    • All 11s doubled were met with an ace – not really all, but it seemed that way
    • Max bet, split to three hands, doubled on two – all three hands were 20. Dealer 5 up, with 10 in the hole: drew a six, of course. 5 max bets bye-bye.
    • Many, many other dealer hands of 10-6-5 during this period. Uncanny.

    Interestingly, the all-time high was at the end of a 200-unit gain over three hours.

    Feel the variance – live the variance – be the variance!

    The weirdest things about this? Knowing full well that it means absolutely nothing statistically, and that if I were black-chipping, I would have been around $45K poorer.

  • Friendo

     

    Quote: BrianCP said:
    Honestly, I’m glad I had such a bad swing while I was practicing. It showed me how bad the bad streaks can get and how much you can actually lose despite playing with an advantage.

    Casino Vérité is still my home store – something about Cassie is really sexy – and gave me a positive swing that provided some clarity: +$11K in 2800 hands: up, up, and up, spreading $10 – $80 and Wonging.

    It was actually scary, because an $11K upswing is about as likely as a $10K downswing during 28 hours of red-chipping.

  • White Guy

     

    Thanks for the support guys and the stories.

    Friendo. Funny thing the stupid aces on the 11 double downs and some splits are what really pissed me off too.

    Also, I was seriously starting to wonder how many f in 7s were in the shoe on one shuffle because it seems like every 14 turned to a 21. I guess this is a problem with hi lo because 7s are neutral so I can have a sky high count with 24 7s left in 2 decks.

    I am sure my swing would have been WAY worse if it hadn’t been for aggressive wonging and spreading 1-20 when I saw it was possible.

    Thanks.

  • tthree

     

    Quote: White Guy said:
    Thanks for the support guys and the stories.

    Friendo. Funny thing the stupid aces on the 11 double downs and some splits are what really pissed me off too.

    Also, I was seriously starting to wonder how many f in 7s were in the shoe on one shuffle because it seems like every 14 turned to a 21. I guess this is a problem with hi lo because 7s are neutral so I can have a sky high count with 24 7s left in 2 decks.

    I am sure my swing would have been WAY worse if it hadn’t been for aggressive wonging and spreading 1-20 when I saw it was possible.

    Thanks.

    When things go bad at high counts big spreads mean big loses. You hope for the favorable side of variance but you don’t always get it.

  • BrianCP

     

    Quote: tthree said:
    When things go bad at high counts big spreads mean big loses. You hope for the favorable side of variance but you don’t always get it.

    Very true. Sometimes, you will also encounter a “false” positive count. This is what got me during my practice sessions. Count would start going up, I would start betting more, then the count would just keep going up until I reached the cut card (75% pen at 6 decks).

    This means that I never actually played with the advantage because the high cards were all in the portion of the deck that wasn’t dealt. This also means I was playing with a significant disadvantage on my high bets.

    Obviously, a high count with 3 decks or so to go will usually have the high cards evenly distributed. On average, I would’ve had the advantage in that situation. A few times, I might actually have a huge advantage because of the high cards being clumped together when I get out the max bet.

    Also, this reveals the importance of deck penetration. If every card was dealt, these clumps being cut away obviously couldn’t happen. Eventually, your max bet would be rewarded by a significant drop in count. You would still lose some money, but not nearly as much as if the high cards were just cut away.

  • Friendo

     

    Quote: BrianCP said:
    Count would start going up, I would start betting more, then the count would just keep going up until I reached the cut card (75% pen at 6 decks).

    We’re more likely to win our splits/doubles and get blackjacks during falling counts.

    Since it’s impossible to know with certainty whether the count will rise or fall during the next hand, we vary our bet according to the likelihood of the count falling during that next hand: at high counts, the count is more likely to drop during the next hand. At negative counts, the count is more likely to rise, so we bet little, or Wong out.

    If the we lose at a high count, and the count rises, we have a greater advantage on the next hand, which is some consolation for the loss.

    And then there are the ultra-high counts which drop quickly to zero, because everybody, including the dealer, gets a bunch of 20s: pushville.

  • BrianCP

     

    Quote: Friendo said:
    We’re more likely to win our splits/doubles and get blackjacks during falling counts.

    we vary our bet according to the likelihood of the count falling during that next hand: at high counts, the count is more likely to drop during the next hand. At negative counts, the count is more likely to rise, so we bet little, or Wong out.

    If the we lose at a high count, and the count rises, we have a greater advantage on the next hand, which is some consolation for the loss.
    .

    Exactly. This is why it is so frustrating when the count doesn’t actually ever fall. It was very likely that it was going to, and then the dealer hits that cut card. There goes the consolation prize for the count going up when it was already high, right into the ASM.

  • tthree

     

    Quote: BrianCP said:
    Exactly. This is why it is so frustrating when the count doesn’t actually ever fall. It was very likely that it was going to, and then the dealer hits that cut card. There goes the consolation prize for the count going up when it was already high, right into the ASM.

    Too bad it was not a hand shuffle. Then the clump may still be useful.

  • Lowrider

     

    Best thing that ever happened to me was unbelievable horrible negative variance almost as soon as I began playing…in 12 visits I lost 700 units which was a VERY LARGE percentage of my 900 unit bankroll…steadily over the succeeding almost 20 visits I got it all back and landed a few hundred units up overall…had these fluctuations been reversed, I have no doubt that I would probably have overbet severely on tthe downside and lost it all.

    The best recipe to establish perseverance and patience as a counter is to suffer your greatest defeats when you first start playing.

    I was fortunate to do so.

  • Lowrider

     

    In addition, I had my two worst losing sessions ever, BACK TO BACK…a record that still stand to this day….once I got through that, nothing was gonna bother me….I lost almost 250 units ON A SINGLE SHOE after this experience and was almost completely unfazed.

    When you’ve had your own balls cut off with a spoon and hand fed to you…getting an ear and finger chopped off is nothing…kinda boring even.

  • Friendo

     

    Quote: Lowrider said:
    The best recipe to establish perseverance and patience as a counter is to suffer your greatest defeats when you first start playing.

    I was fortunate to do so.

    I share this opinion.

    My first 150 hours were much like being tossed over the fence at the Rottweiler sanctuary.

    Now, winning sessions feel like gifts from Iblis and Baphomet. I am grateful for every nickel won, and see it as undeserved windfall which could be taken back at any moment.

  • moo321

     

    I’m going to ask some tough questions:

    1. Are you sure you have an advantage? Have you practiced extensively counting this game (i.e. you have a 6 deck shoe at your house, you’re dealing shoe after shoe and ending up with a 0 count at the end).

    2. Are you bankrolled properly?

    If so, I feel for you. The nastiest thing about counting is that you DO have an edge, and if you’re very disciplined you can grind out a very decent amount of money. But it’s gut-wrenching.

    I will say, after several years of playing, that losing probably hurts about 1/3 as much as it did at first. I can have a big losing session without much trouble. But when the losing runs together, it’s hard.

  • White Guy

     

    Been counting over 10 years. Have used 3 diff counts. Hi Lo is so easy a monkey could do it so it’s not a user error.

    BR is no issue.

    Thanks for all the stories. It’s nice to share with people who get what I am saying.

    Thanks.

  • Bondy3

     

    Quote: Lowrider said:
    Best thing that ever happened to me was unbelievable horrible negative variance almost as soon as I began playing…in 12 visits I lost 700 units which was a VERY LARGE percentage of my 900 unit bankroll…steadily over the succeeding almost 20 visits I got it all back and landed a few hundred units up overall…had these fluctuations been reversed, I have no doubt that I would probably have overbet severely on tthe downside and lost it all.

    The best recipe to establish perseverance and patience as a counter is to suffer your greatest defeats when you first start playing.

    I was fortunate to do so.

    I had the oposite start to playing, out of my first 10 sessions, 9 of them were winning sessions, averaging 31 units per win, and my only loss was 9 units. with one session where I broke even.

    following that I overbet, went from +364 units to -513 units, it sucks to loose like that

  • Tarzan

    Flash read this thread!

    Flash, read through this thread! There is something interesting that came up during our little workshop thing the other day brought up in there!

  • White Guy

     

    Quote: Tarzan said:
    Flash, read through this thread! There is something interesting that came up during our little workshop thing the other day brought up in there!

    Do elaborate. Please.

  • Tarzan

    Remarkable encounter

    I witnessed a remarkable demonstration in sequencing technique in another “unique meeting of the minds” in which we ponder, analyze and examine advanced techniques. We flip a few cards around here and there. We discuss various publications. On this particular occasion I demonstrated Tarzan system to the talented card-sequencer, who was stunned and amazed at it. He in turn demonstrated his remarkable talent for ace sequencing to which I was equally amazed. I had to ponder not only the combined talent in this group but also the diversification! A variety of specialized techniques all designed with churning a profit and all the best experts to have on them demonstrating with precision.

    Here’s the thing… I’ve posted things about using nothing more than a basic hi-lo count before and upset people. The “Oh, just use a bigger spread and that will compensate” method works and yes, during the course of the next 100 years with unlimited bankroll you will probably win. My comparisons of basic hi-lo to more advanced methods consisting of comparing the two to having two identical patients requiring the exact same surgical procedure, so with one you use a surgeon with a scalpel and the other you use a lumberjack with a chainsaw. Which patient will fare better?

    Advocates of a basic sort of hi-lo count don’t like to hear this sort of stuff though, so I don’t want to go into that too deeply. During some of the discussion of this little workshop session consisted of me talking about deck composition information that is not apparent using a hi-lo count and something I have said before about “Those neutral cards are not so neutral!” I went into the benefits of additional information on deck composition.

    Why do we go to all this trouble? To gouge every perceivable advantage because it’s tough out there! Staying ahead of the curve requires skill, devotion and specialized techniques. Those casinos are not in business because they want anyone to win. Bigger spread to compensate for a lack of information is the way with hi-lo. In other words you are a lumberjack with a chainsaw rather than a surgeon with a scalpel. You will have larger swings that will boggle your mind. Huge swings happen no matter what but the less information you have and the less efficiently you operate the bigger they will be.

    I wanted Flash to review the thread where the issue of the 7’s came up along with a few other little things because we touched on these topics briefly as part of displaying and examining advanced techniques.

  • White Guy

     

    Interesting. I don’t know a whole lot about the topic but I am curious how you figure Simms would factor into this.

    Are the Simms that calculate ROR EV etc incorrect?

  • Bondy3

     

    Quote: White Guy said:
    Interesting. I don’t know a whole lot about the topic but I am curious how you figure Simms would factor into this.

    Are the Simms that calculate ROR EV etc incorrect?

    no, the sims are pretty accurate

    just sometimes people get unlucky

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