running count errors

  • ascension

    running count errors

    because true count conversion requires estimation what is the cost of being off on our running count by 1, i know its important to strive for accuracy, but i was wondering how costly it is for a player to be consistently off by 1 on his running count since true count conversion is an estimation. basically is it of any significance? thanks!

  • Friendo

     

    Quote: ascension said:
    what is the cost of being off on our running count by

    Depends on the particular count: ranges from not much to 2*(not much).

    It will be worse for a level-1 count than a level-2 count, because a single point is worth more in level-1 count.

    I have seen this mentioned occasionally, and have run sims with count errors built in.

    I believe such errors have little or no effect on EV. Variance is where they hurt, but not much if it’s only +/-1.

    Being, say 1 point too low is identical to missing a 6 that went by. This is the same thing as not having had that 6 dealt at all, which means only that you have given up 1 card worth of penetration: not good, but barely noticeable.

    Lots of off-by-one true count errors would be really bad, however.

  • ascension

     

    thankyou friendo, so since i truncate my true count, being off by plus/minus one in my running shouldn’t have a noticeable effect on my ev in shoe games particularly? it would seem to me that as you have less decks to be played being off by plus/minus 1 in your running count will have a bigger effect on your true count conversion.

  • Most Interesting Man

     

    Off by one in running count is similar to an extra burn card. How much does the first burn card mess up your game?

  • UK-21

     

    In a single deck game the cost of the error will be higher than for the six deck shoe games that we tend to be stuck with here in the UK. For a six deck shoe game, I would think that an error of +/-3 on the running count will have little overall impact?

  • zengrifter

     

    Quote: ascension said:
    because true count conversion requires estimation what is the cost of being off on our running count by 1, i know its important to strive for accuracy, but i was wondering how costly it is for a player to be consistently off by 1 on his running count since true count conversion is an estimation. basically is it of any significance?

    No, none … with the proviso that its not a ‘chronic’ error but just random. zg

  • ascension

     

    thanks guys! appreciate the responses and insight 😛

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