When to Leave to Maximize EV per hour?

  • Mr. Ed

    When to Leave to Maximize EV per hour?

    At what negative count should I leave the table if I want to maximize EV dollars per hour?

    I usually leave when the true count pops below -1, but I’ve always wondered what the ideal time would be.

    I’m going to Foxwoods. Eight decks, penetration is 87.5% (one deck), das, ls,

  • tthree

     

    Quote: Mr. Ed said:
    At what negative count should I leave the table if I want to maximize EV dollars per hour?

    I usually leave when the true count pops below -1, but I’ve always wondered what the ideal time would be.

    I’m going to Foxwoods. Eight decks, penetration is 87.5% (one deck), das, ls,

    Your count is necessary to know to answer the question. Blackjack Attack 2005 edition chapter 13 is dedicated to answering this question. It is a must read for counters that wong.

  • Mr. Ed

     

    Sorry, I don’t have BJ Attack III.

    Any insights on when to leave the table?

    I used to target -1 religiously, but then I simulated as best I could, the average count leaving at -0.5, -1.0, -1.5 and -2.0. It ended up that there was only a tiny difference between -0.5 and -1.0, a small difference between -1.0 and -1.5 and a tolerable difference between -1.5 and -2.0.

    Now I feel comfortable leaving at -1.0 if I have a good reason to leave, and waiting until -2.0 if I have a good reason to stay.

    But I never took into account the waiting time to find another shoe. It might take 5 minutes if I sit down at an empty table and the dealer has to reshuffle. Or maybe 15 minutes if the casino is crowded.

    So, I’m not sure what’s the BEST time to leave, if I’m trying to make the most dollars per hour.

  • FLASH1296

     

    Mr. Ed,

    “Sorry, I don’t have BJ Attack III.”

    The 3rd ed. of BJA is a must have.

    It is requisite reading. Not debatable.

    I will forego defining the imperative “must”.

    If you can put cash on the table in a casino,

    then you have no rational excuse.

    … not as long as you can read (English).

  • tthree

    I hope this helps

    Quote: Mr. Ed said:
    Sorry, I don’t have BJ Attack III.

    Any insights on when to leave the table?

    I used to target -1 religiously, but then I simulated as best I could, the average count leaving at -0.5, -1.0, -1.5 and -2.0. It ended up that there was only a tiny difference between -0.5 and -1.0, a small difference between -1.0 and -1.5 and a tolerable difference between -1.5 and -2.0.

    Now I feel comfortable leaving at -1.0 if I have a good reason to leave, and waiting until -2.0 if I have a good reason to stay.

    But I never took into account the waiting time to find another shoe. It might take 5 minutes if I sit down at an empty table and the dealer has to reshuffle. Or maybe 15 minutes if the casino is crowded.

    So, I’m not sure what’s the BEST time to leave, if I’m trying to make the most dollars per hour.

    It varies for rules and pen. They use a 1 to 12 spread as the standard. I have crushed some shoes that hit my normal wong out point early but were cut skinny so I stayed and everything went right after that. After checking the CBJN I see you have 6 deck S17 DAS LS nm.

    HILO, 1 to 12 spread
    6 S17 DAS LS: TC departures are listed below.
    depth, 4.5pen 5pen
    0.5 dk, -0.85, -0.90
    1.0 dk, -0.90, -1.03
    1.5 dk, -0.95, -1.16
    2.0 dk, -1.00, -1.29
    2.5 dk, -1.05, -1.42
    3.0 dk, -1.00, -1.55
    3.5 dk, -0.85, -1.61
    4.0 dk, -0.35, -1.55
    4.5 dk, +1.95, -1.16
    5.0 dk, ——, +1.94

    The reason you leave at a plus count late in the shoe is the time it takes to shuffle is better spent starting a new shoe than playing a hand or so at an advantage. I am not sure I agree. I guess it depends on if a shoe is about to be started or not. They tried to determine wasted time between shoes (6 rounds) and felt it better to leave for a fresh shoe that is about to be dealt. Other common sense variables are considered.

  • bigplayer

     

    Quote: Mr. Ed said:
    At what negative count should I leave the table if I want to maximize EV dollars per hour?

    I usually leave when the true count pops below -1, but I’ve always wondered what the ideal time would be.

    I’m going to Foxwoods. Eight decks, penetration is 87.5% (one deck), das, ls,

    I depends on the size of your spread and whether there are freshly shuffled shoes already loaded and ready to go (or about to go). Generally you should leave by -1.5 True if playing a tight spread and no later than -2.5 True if playing a big spread and can move around. Late in the shoe it’s been found it’s more profitable to move to another game anytime the casino has the edge (that means sometimes you should move in positive counts) IF there are shoes already shuffled and ready to play but a lot of table hopping does create heat so usually late in a shoe you’re often better off just staying put and grinding your way through the negatives or sitting out the last couple of hands to check your voice mail or go to the bathroom.

  • stopgambling

     

    How often can we go to the washroom in an hour without looking strange.I got many bad shoes in an hour .So i go to washroom every 20 mins??????Are there any good tactics to deal with these situation??

  • Automatic Monkey

     

    Quote: bigplayer said:
    I depends on the size of your spread and whether there are freshly shuffled shoes already loaded and ready to go (or about to go). Generally you should leave by -1.5 True if playing a tight spread and no later than -2.5 True if playing a big spread and can move around. Late in the shoe it’s been found it’s more profitable to move to another game anytime the casino has the edge (that means sometimes you should move in positive counts) IF there are shoes already shuffled and ready to play but a lot of table hopping does create heat so usually late in a shoe you’re often better off just staying put and grinding your way through the negatives or sitting out the last couple of hands to check your voice mail or go to the bathroom.

    I agree, if you are using High-Low, and not going to another table, the best number is around TC = -2.

  • 21forme

     

    Quote: stopgambling said:
    How often can we go to the washroom in an hour without looking strange.I got many bad shoes in an hour .So i go to washroom every 20 mins??????Are there any good tactics to deal with these situation??

    Always have a cup of coffee (decaf) at the table.

  • SleightOfHand

     

    Here’s a little bit of advice: don’t worry so much about adding an extra 2% to your wr. Look for ways to add 50%, 100%, 500%…

  • tthree

     

    Quote: SleightOfHand said:
    Here’s a little bit of advice: don’t worry so much about adding an extra 2% to your wr. Look for ways to add 50%, 100%, 500%…

    Any suggestions?

  • flyingwind

     

    Was thinking about tutoring high school calculus. But I couldn’t integrate the EV on that.

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