# Expected Hourly Win Rate Survey

• MountainMan

Expected Hourly Win Rate Survey

I’m curious what other members feel is their expected hourly win rate when playing their typical blackjack game. What I’m looking for here is not the actual hourly results, but the theoretical expected outcome based on the house rules, playing strategy, betting stategy, etc. Anyone care to do a survey?

• kewljason
Quote: MountainMan said:
I’m curious what other members feel is their expected hourly win rate when playing their typical blackjack game. What I’m looking for here is not the actual hourly results, but the theoretical expected outcome based on the house rules, playing strategy, betting stategy, etc. Anyone care to do a survey?

I don’t understand the question. It will change for each different game (rules, decks, penetration) so unless you play the exact same game all the time, it will vary.

• bj21abc

Perhaps a better question is – what hourly rate is the least you would be prepared to play (for get out of bed) for ?

Quote: MountainMan said:
I’m curious what other members feel is their expected hourly win rate when playing their typical blackjack game. What I’m looking for here is not the actual hourly results, but the theoretical expected outcome based on the house rules, playing strategy, betting stategy, etc. Anyone care to do a survey?
• BJgenius007

Theoretical win rate according to "Play Blackjack Like the Pros".

Quote: MountainMan said:
I’m curious what other members feel is their expected hourly win rate when playing their typical blackjack game. What I’m looking for here is not the actual hourly results, but the theoretical expected outcome based on the house rules, playing strategy, betting stategy, etc. Anyone care to do a survey?

Level 1 system: \$15 to \$30 per hour. (Hi Lo, Hi Opt I)

Level 2 system: \$21 to \$44 per hour. (Hi Opt II, Omega II)

This assumes the following proper spreads:

Single deck (4x): \$20 to \$80
Double deck (8x): \$10 to \$80
Six deck (16x or 20x): \$5 to \$80/\$100
Eight deck (20x): \$5 to \$100

And the needed bankroll is \$10,000 to cover negative variance.

In reality, the most common game is eight deck with \$10 minimal. That means
a counter using Hi Lo needs \$20,000 bankroll. Spread \$10 to \$200. And the expected earnings rate is \$30 per hour for bad penetration and \$60 for good penetration. If he or she could improve to level 2 counting system, he or she could earn \$42 to \$88 per hour.

I urge people to play against computer first before going to casino. Normally you can play 80 to 100 hand in one hour at casino. After playing 10,000 hands (equivalent to 100 casino hours) against the computer, if your total winning is above \$3,000 (betting \$10 to \$200 a hand, set your program parameters accordingly), You are ready to go.

• MountainMan
Quote: kewljason said:
I don’t understand the question. It will change for each different game (rules, decks, penetration) so unless you play the exact same game all the time, it will vary.

Kewl: There is going to be a big variance in expectations based on the game played of course. I’m assuming most AP’s don’t play the games offered that fail to meet a predetermined hourly win rate parameter. For me, I play with a \$30 ph expectation. Doesn’t seem like much when you consider all factors involved. Want to compare to others to see if I should be shooting for more per hour. I have been fortunate so far playing rather conservatively.

Actual results from a two week, fifty five hour session- \$878 profit.
Just over thirty hours of that was on a DD table with a 1-4 spread.
Twenty hours on a SD with a 1-3 spread, that was mostly a 1-2 spread.
Largest hand was \$80 when I split 2s against a 5, had a double down and another split 2. Lost 3 of 4 hands.

• kewljason
Quote: BJgenius007 said:
Level 1 system: \$15 to \$30 per hour. (Hi Lo, Hi Opt I)

Level 2 system: \$21 to \$44 per hour. (Hi Opt II, Omega II)

This assumes the following proper spreads:

Single deck (4x): \$20 to \$80
Double deck (8x): \$10 to \$80
Six deck (16x or 20x): \$5 to \$80/\$100
Eight deck (20x): \$5 to \$100

And the needed bankroll is \$10,000 to cover negative variance.

In reality, the most common game is eight deck with \$10 minimal. That means
a counter using Hi Lo needs \$20,000 bankroll. Spread \$10 to \$200. And the expected earnings rate is \$30 per hour for bad penetration and \$60 for good penetration. If he or she could improve to level 2 counting system, he or she could earn \$42 to \$88 per hour.

I urge people to play against computer first before going to casino. Normally you can play 80 to 100 hand in one hour at casino. After playing 10,000 hands (equivalent to 100 casino hours) against the computer, if your total winning is above \$3,000 (betting \$10 to \$200 a hand, set your program parameters accordingly), You are ready to go.

You are over valuing the power of a level 2 count. In most cases sims show the gain to be somewhere between 5 and 10 percent over a level 1 such as hi-lo. 8 deck games, with mediocre penetration on the lower end. Better games on the higher end. You might be able to find some single or double deck game with decent rules and penetration that the advantage increases into the low double digits, but that’s about it. There have been a number of threads in the past couple years on this topic, complete with numerous sims, to back up what I am saying, if you care to look for them.

Incidentally, any such gain that a simulation indicated is based on perfect play. Make 1 or 2 mistakes that you might not make with a level one count and any advatage all but disappears.

I am not advocating against such a count. I personally played the RPC for 18 months before deciding to revert back to hi-lo. Other players find the small additional gain more worthwhile than I did.

• bigplayer

Hourly Rate

We only play shoes and it depends on the top bet scheme use and game speed but generally between \$200 and \$400 per hour for a basic six deck game with AC rules.

• Sharky

i assume the \$200-\$400/hr is “we” too

• tensplitter

For me, \$15-20 an hour at a 6D Pennsylvania rules with a penetration of 1 deck cut out. I spread 15-2×75 and wong out of all counts below -1. I feel like I spent over 100 hours since the middle of July and have a net win of about \$1200 just from that place, slightly below my expectation. Of course, ask me a week from now and my net win could be \$1800 or it could be \$700 or anywhere in between. I recently went to Vegas and had a run of good luck (even playing some -ev games too), and took home over a grand, over twice my expectation for the trip.

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