Progressive loss betting strategy

  • Terc

    Progressive loss betting strategy

    Greetings fellow counters. I’ve been reading this forum for several months now as a guest and decided to finally register. I was in Vegas last week for a 4-day trip where I spent quite a bit of time at the BJ tables, so I’ll start my first post with an interesting experience and then edit my post later and tell you guys a little about myself.

    I was at the casino in Vegas which has all of the exterior of its glass windows stained a bright gold color. Game was 6D H17 $10 minimum with 1 1/2 decks cut off. I had been playing for about an hour with one other player and the count was neutral or close to neutral almost the entire time (BOORRRINGGGG).

    The gambler playing with me finally gambles all his money away and right as he leaves, a group of 4 young players like myself (early-mid 20’s) walk over and sit down. They seem unusally excited about playing, as if they have been planning this outing for quite some time. I exchange pleasantries with them and make friends with the chatty asian guy to my left sitting at second base.

    I watch their play casually, and they all seem to be playing 90% correct BS or so. After about 20 minutes, the girl with them at the table catches a bad run and she loses 3-4 hands in a row. I notice that after each loss, her bet becomes progressively larger, almost exponentially. First $10, then $40, then $150, then $200. I use my best ploppy interested ‘Tell me your secret’ voice and ask the asian about this phenomenon and he simply replies, “we have a system we use,” and he smiles as if this is a proven strategy. The girl finally wins a hand with a $250 or so bet out after a bunch of losses and reduces her bet back to her starting point at the table minimum.

    After another 15 minutes of observation, I realize that all 4 of these people are betting exponentially more after each loss. Each of them bought in for $300, so I am genuinely worried that they will all crash and burn. I convey my concern to the asian, using my personal experiences of ‘endless’ runs of losing hands. He doesn’t take me seriously and they continue playing as before. We go through a couple shoes and two of them wipe out their buy-in and get up from the table to watch from a standing position. The girl colors up with $100 or so in profit. Now it’s just me and the chatty asian dude.

    Shortly after my warning to the asian, he catches a run of losing 4-5 hands. His bet is out now at $500. As dumb luck would have it, he wins his $500. He is beaming with satisfaction, completely unaware that he was betting progressively higher into an AWFUL count (I don’t recall what it was exactly but I know it was not even close to the pivot point). By then, I had been playing for a couple hours with no gains to show for it, so I was quite annoyed that this guy had sat down and won a single hand for $500 in less than half that time. I was considering wonging out, but I decided to stay just to see how the rest of the shoe played out for him.

    Several hands before the end of the same shoe, he catches another bad run. That $500 bet comes out again and he busts. I can see his anxiety mounting as he reaches into his wallet for another set of benjamins. Almost visually sweating at this point, he quickly throws down another ~$500 bet and loses. His table chips are all gone and his wallet is empty. I am happy as a clam to witness this firsthand. He gets up in a huff and leaves with his friends.

    The progressive loss betting strategy.

  • stopgambling

     

    Not trying to be a jerk ,but shouldn’t we all know this??? .There seems to be not much of a point in talking about it.One thing i want to say is ,i feel bad for him,but if he does not lose ,we will not have a chance to play .It is survival.

  • HsiaoDi

     

    Maybe he should have place another 1000 bet to win it all back…..

  • aslan

     

    Quote: HsiaoDi said:
    Maybe he should have place another 1000 bet to win it all back…..

    That’s the ticket!

  • RollingStoned

     

    [s]About a week or two my friend was telling me about this ‘perfect strategy’ that you’re describing. I made a thread asking about it and got some decent answers..though I’m still a bit confused myself.

    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=23708

    It seems like a great strategy, so chances are you will win some money in the short run, but at a possibly large expense (not worth it).[/s]

    Woops, didn’t read your entire thread (last 2 or 3 paragraphs). That could have been me there losing $500+ in a short few hands….but I don’t think I have the balls, lack-of-knowledge-stuff, and bankroll to do that. =\

  • FLASH1296

     

    Terc …

    You stated … “I am happy as a clam to witness this firsthand.”

    You sadistically revel in the suffering of stoopid strangers ?

  • Mewtwo

     

    Quote: FLASH1296 said:
    Terc …

    You stated … “I am happy as a clam to witness this firsthand.”

    You sadistically revel in the suffering of stoopid strangers ?

    Don’t the ploppies that empty their wallets subsidize advantage play at the casinos that do tolerate it to a degree?

  • aslan

     

    Quote: Mewtwo said:
    Don’t the ploppies that empty their wallets subsidize advantage play at the casinos that do tolerate it to a degree?

    Personally, I wish all the casinos would go out of business because they are -EV for society. I hate to see someone stupidly lose more than they can afford. There are enough small losers to make gaming a profitable industry without the tragic cases. In fact, I think small losers make up the vast majority of casino customers and likely account for the major portion of their revenues.

  • bejammin075

    Here’s how I had to explain it to

    someone I know who was going to Vegas with this big dumb grin, telling me about this type of betting system. Assume it works as planned for a while. If you get a few losses in a row, you make it all back, and then some, with a win. But that “and then some” is just your minimum bet. So if your min bet is $10, at the end of the run, you make $10. So five losses in a row, followed by a win, you lose 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, totalling $310, and you win $320. Putting up over 300 to win 10 is a very risky plan. And then figure you are going to have losing streaks that could easily get just a bit longer, and pretty soon you are faced with the absurd strategy of putting several thousands at risk just to get $10.

  • aslan

     

    Quote: bejammin075 said:
    someone I know who was going to Vegas with this big dumb grin, telling me about this type of betting system. Assume it works as planned for a while. If you get a few losses in a row, you make it all back, and then some, with a win. But that “and then some” is just your minimum bet. So if your min bet is $10, at the end of the run, you make $10. So five losses in a row, followed by a win, you lose 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, totalling $310, and you win $320. Putting up over 300 to win 10 is a very risky plan. And then figure you are going to have losing streaks that could easily get just a bit longer, and pretty soon you are faced with the absurd strategy of putting several thousands at risk just to get $10.

    I had a friend who thought he had the goose who laid the golden egg. He would progress three times, then go back to zero. I pleaded with him not to do it. He said he could not lose. We went to Reno, and he lost his shirt. He could not believe that he would lose three times in a row so often. All I could do was shake my head.

  • 21gunsalute

     

    Quote: Terc said:
    Greetings fellow counters. I’ve been reading this forum for several months now as a guest and decided to finally register. I was in Vegas last week for a 4-day trip where I spent quite a bit of time at the BJ tables, so I’ll start my first post with an interesting experience and then edit my post later and tell you guys a little about myself.

    I was at the casino in Vegas which has all of the exterior of its glass windows stained a bright gold color. Game was 6D H17 $10 minimum with 1 1/2 decks cut off. I had been playing for about an hour with one other player and the count was neutral or close to neutral almost the entire time (BOORRRINGGGG).

    The gambler playing with me finally gambles all his money away and right as he leaves, a group of 4 young players like myself (early-mid 20’s) walk over and sit down. They seem unusally excited about playing, as if they have been planning this outing for quite some time. I exchange pleasantries with them and make friends with the chatty asian guy to my left sitting at second base.

    I watch their play casually, and they all seem to be playing 90% correct BS or so. After about 20 minutes, the girl with them at the table catches a bad run and she loses 3-4 hands in a row. I notice that after each loss, her bet becomes progressively larger, almost exponentially. First $10, then $40, then $150, then $200. I use my best ploppy interested ‘Tell me your secret’ voice and ask the asian about this phenomenon and he simply replies, “we have a system we use,” and he smiles as if this is a proven strategy. The girl finally wins a hand with a $250 or so bet out after a bunch of losses and reduces her bet back to her starting point at the table minimum.

    After another 15 minutes of observation, I realize that all 4 of these people are betting exponentially more after each loss. Each of them bought in for $300, so I am genuinely worried that they will all crash and burn. I convey my concern to the asian, using my personal experiences of ‘endless’ runs of losing hands. He doesn’t take me seriously and they continue playing as before. We go through a couple shoes and two of them wipe out their buy-in and get up from the table to watch from a standing position. The girl colors up with $100 or so in profit. Now it’s just me and the chatty asian dude.

    Shortly after my warning to the asian, he catches a run of losing 4-5 hands. His bet is out now at $500. As dumb luck would have it, he wins his $500. He is beaming with satisfaction, completely unaware that he was betting progressively higher into an AWFUL count (I don’t recall what it was exactly but I know it was not even close to the pivot point). By then, I had been playing for a couple hours with no gains to show for it, so I was quite annoyed that this guy had sat down and won a single hand for $500 in less than half that time. I was considering wonging out, but I decided to stay just to see how the rest of the shoe played out for him.

    Several hands before the end of the same shoe, he catches another bad run. That $500 bet comes out again and he busts. I can see his anxiety mounting as he reaches into his wallet for another set of benjamins. Almost visually sweating at this point, he quickly throws down another ~$500 bet and loses. His table chips are all gone and his wallet is empty. I am happy as a clam to witness this firsthand.

    Schizophrenic?

  • tthree

     

    Quote: bejammin075 said:
    someone I know who was going to Vegas with this big dumb grin, telling me about this type of betting system. Assume it works as planned for a while. If you get a few losses in a row, you make it all back, and then some, with a win. But that “and then some” is just your minimum bet. So if your min bet is $10, at the end of the run, you make $10. So five losses in a row, followed by a win, you lose 10, 20, 40, 80, 160, totalling $310, and you win $320. Putting up over 300 to win 10 is a very risky plan. And then figure you are going to have losing streaks that could easily get just a bit longer, and pretty soon you are faced with the absurd strategy of putting several thousands at risk just to get $10.

    The OP outlined an even more aggressive style than the traditional martingale.
    Win 1 bet progression: $10
    Win 2 bet progression: $30
    Win 3 bet progression: $100
    Win 4 bet progression: 0
    Win 5 bet progression: -$150
    Win 6 bet progression: $50
    Lose 6 bet progression: -$950

    I know I don’t need to go into the math to show why this is worse, if it doesn’t correlate to the count, than a traditional martingale.

  • Terc

     

    For the people asking why my outlook towards this guy changed over the course of the session, here’s an explanation:

    At first I was concerned because he was a young guy like me, so I felt bad for him. Then when his reckless betting was actually rewarding him with wins, I became annoyed that he was not getting an ‘appropriate’ result. When he finally lost, I was happy not necessarily in a sadistic sense to see him lose everything, but because I saw him lose with an unreliable strategy. If he hadn’t lost like that, he probably would have continued playing that way believing it was a viable long term plan. Also, I don’t know about the rest of you, but it does annoy me when people are betting near table max at negative counts and pulling natural BJ

    As for the reference made to me being schizophrenic, I think you need do do some research on mental illnesses. I have neither delusions nor hallucinations; my description of this guy being visibly shaken by his losses was simply emphasized for the purpose of the story

  • 21gunsalute

     

    Quote: Terc said:
    For the people asking why my outlook towards this guy changed over the course of the session, here’s an explanation.

    At first I was concerned because he was a young guy like me, so I felt bad for him. Then when his reckless betting was actually rewarding him with wins, I became annoyed that he was not getting an ‘appropriate’ result. When he finally lost, I was happy not necessarily in a sadistic sense to see him lose everything, but because I saw him lose with an unreliable strategy. If he hadn’t lost like that, he probably would have continued playing that way believing it was a viable long term plan. Also, I don’t know about the rest of you, but it does annoy me when people are betting near table max at negative counts and pulling natural BJ

    As for the reference made to me being schizophrenic, I think you need do do some research on mental illnesses. I have neither delusions nor hallucinations; my description of this guy being visibly shaken by his losses was simply emphasized for the purpose of the story

    Why worry about if anyone else at the table is winning or losing? It doesn’t affect you at all. Ploppies have short term fluctuations just like everyone else. Don’t worry about it. Concentrate on your own game.

  • tthree

     

    I bet they are back at it today. Their confidence indicated they are up so far. Few of these types quit while they are up with a losing strategy. They wait until they are way down to admit the truth.

  • FLASH1296

     

    I am one of the sole posters actually qualified to diagnose anyone.

    It is not a wise thing to do – tossing about terms like “schizophrenic”

    so … “Cut it Out” !

  • stopgambling

     

    i thought most of the $$$ are from the pathological gamblers, not from the masses of average small time players.TO ME ,THE CASINO IS A BUSINESS THAT PROFIT FROM PEOPLE ‘S MISERIES.NOT TOO MUCH different from drug ,alcohol,tobacco …..etc….Sure ,nobody pointed a gun to their head to gamble ,but if it is there ,then people will go . I m sure they did extensive study to prove that it is a great business before they did when it all started!! i heard this dealer said something about my endless complains of bad cards and stated no one forced me to come !!!Good call ,The casino already knew ,there will be a good number of people that will get in too deep in these so called “games”.So they profit big time ,yet we are the citizens that have to deal with the social problems??W T H???? If they can do it for their own gain,why can we?? I am sure if he was the one that was losing ,he would not feel good about it .So why would he be an a -ho and talk like that ???Wish he have to pay some kind of price for this just like everybody else.We all payed some kind of price for this industry,directly or indirectly .Well ,nobody said life is fair ,so i will continue to try to win from them for my personal gain ,do what i can to get what i can !!!!!!!

  • AussiePlayer

     

    Can’t recall who said it, but one of my favorite quotes from this site is, “There are other people at the table?”

  • 21gunsalute

     

    Quote: FLASH1296 said:
    I am one of the sole posters actually qualified to diagnose anyone.

    It is not a wise thing to do – tossing about terms like “schizophrenic”

    so … “Cut it Out” !

    Well first off I don’t take orders from you, and you shouldn’t be barking out orders to me or anyone else here. Secondly you’re making it sound like a threat. Lastly I was simply posing a question because the OP appeared to be talking out of both sides of his mouth. So I’m going to kindly ask you to please “cut it out” sir. I have a right to my opinion and I have a right to ask questions.

  • duanedibley

     

    I once sat down at a table with a 50 something year old guy from Texas who, as it quickly became apparent, was doubling his bet after each loss. After losing three hands in a row he won the fourth and proclaimed to the table, “That’s what you call progressive betting, gentlemen.” Someone questioned him about it and he offered a few more details and then said, “My son used to do it professionally.” He then proceeded to lose $3000 in the next 20 minutes before storming off.

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