going for the brass ring – Page 3

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: aslan said:
    Hero 2012!

    ok tryin again with these images, regarding yer one question:
    ….. and it didn’t come out so good, oh well……

  • aslan

     

    I get the idea, I think… So my strategy is to achieve skill level 13, 14 & maybe 15. That ought to get the job done!

    Seriously, I kinda get the message, but how do you apply it to the real world? I may have missed the boat, but I’m a fast swimmer.

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: aslan said:
    I get the idea, I think… So my strategy is to achieve skill level 13, 14 & maybe 15. That ought to get the job done!

    Seriously, I kinda get the message, but how do you apply it to the real world? I may have missed the boat, but I’m a fast swimmer.

    meh, well can’t give away to much here, little hint in this link maybe:
    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showpost.php?p=256305&postcount=98

    as an aside…..
    anyway, competition can be a bitch, no doubt about that…..
    maybe doesn’t hurt to think about dealing with that……..
    wonder how this example would relate to game theory….
    now if i could just understand game theory…… lol

  • Machinist

     

    Aslan apply what Sage is saying to the discussion we had on chat about a month ago, i think there was 4 or 5 of us in the room at the time. We discussed a type of game with skskskskskskkives if you remember..
    Remember that night when i decided to let out a bit of info on some new machines to the select few that happened to be in the room? I mean i have never ever put anything of value on this site, well at least not in black and white type…… Now that would be foolishness
    Add that to the brass ring theory of Sages…….

    Machinist

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: Machinist said:
    Aslan apply what Sage is saying to the discussion we had on chat about a month ago, i think there was 4 or 5 of us in the room at the time. We discussed a type of game with $&%^#% if you remember..
    Remember that night when i decided to let out a bit of info on some new machines to the select few that happened to be in the room? I mean i have never ever put anything of value on this site, well at least not in black and white type…… Now that would be foolishness
    Add that to the brass ring theory of Sages…….

    Machinist

    wtf? scratch that damm word outa there boss. geesh. you know what word i’m talkin bout, scratch it.
    too much value there, wtf you wanna ruin yer image…… no really man scratch it, aslan’ll figure out what yer talkin bout.

  • tthree

     

    Quote: sagefr0g said:
    wtf? scratch that damm word outa there boss. geesh. you know what word i’m talkin bout, scratch it.
    too much value there, wtf you wanna ruin yer image…… no really man scratch it, aslan’ll figure out what yer talkin bout.

    Relax frog. I think everyone already knew what you are talking about. It was not as subtle as you think. So speed of play is your advantage? That is what I get out of it.

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: tthree said:
    Relax frog. I think everyone already knew what you are talking about. It was not as subtle as you think. So speed of play is your advantage? That is what I get out of it.

    really, lol…. whatever. edit: it’s dead anyway, dead, dead, dead, i tell yah.
    errhh yeah, that’s one contingent of it, that an how much ummphhh you put into it relatively speaking.

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: Machinist said:
    Aint it cool how them numbers seem to work out ?
    …..
    Machinist

    yeah it is, and yah learn something after you misinterpret the numbers, look again and see where yah misunderstood something, lol. not you, me, lol.

    like i was thinking that 69.03% success rate was about the best you could do long run, NOT! lol
    got fooled by when the stipulations of our hero’s advantage i initially imposed gave a percentage success rate that agreed with my statistical data success rate.
    but in reality, that percentage success rate can be improved upon by increasing the advantage (within the limits that it can be increased)
    found that out by foolin around in excell doing what if’s and changing the original advantage setting i had stipulated for a variable advantage strategy (that i’d erroneously assumed was optimal) to a couple of different static advantage strategies, as pictured below:
    of course a higher advantage is gonna mean more success, lol, i shoulda known that. also surprised by how my original way the hero never loses against the field, and these other examples the hero does occasionally lose against the field but the percentage success rates are higher.
    plots below are # times hero beats the field against percentage success rate
    i’m figuring the way we been doing it, we have about a 8.55 to 1 advantage on average against the field, that gives a 69.62% success rate as opposed to what my records show, a 69.05% success rate , sorta thing, fwiw….

  • tthree

     

    Quote: sagefr0g said:
    yeah it is, and yah learn something after you misinterpret the numbers, look again and see where yah misunderstood something, lol. not you, me, lol.

    like i was thinking that 69.03% success rate was about the best you could do long run, NOT! lol
    got fooled by when the stipulations of our hero’s advantage i initially imposed gave a percentage success rate that agreed with my statistical data success rate.
    but in reality, that percentage success rate can be improved upon by increasing the advantage (within the limits that it can be increased)
    found that out by foolin around in excell doing what if’s and changing the original advantage setting i had stipulated for a variable advantage strategy (that i’d erroneously assumed was optimal) to a couple of different static advantage strategies, as pictured below:
    of course a higher advantage is gonna mean more success, lol, i shoulda known that. also surprised by how my original way the hero never loses against the field, and these other examples the hero does occasionally lose against the field but the percentage success rates are higher.
    plots below are # times hero beats the field against percentage success rate
    i’m figuring the way we been doing it, we have about a 8.55 to 1 advantage on average against the field, that gives a 69.62% success rate as opposed to what my records show, a 69.05% success rate , sorta thing, fwiw….

    Frog, my old eyes can’t read that. I even got out my magnifying glasses for fly tying and other fine work. Couldn’t read any of it.

    Maybe I should use this emoticon. I gave up the patch for my blind eye a while back but this is what I used to look like.

  • aslan

     

    Quote: Machinist said:
    Aslan apply what Sage is saying to the discussion we had on chat about a month ago, i think there was 4 or 5 of us in the room at the time. We discussed a type of game with progressives if you remember..
    Remember that night when i decided to let out a bit of info on some new machines to the select few that happened to be in the room? I mean i have never ever put anything of value on this site, well at least not in black and white type…… Now that would be foolishness
    Add that to the brass ring theory of Sages…….

    Machinist

    Right. Between what Sage said and what you just said, we’re talking about the colorblind pickers who don’t know green apples from ripe ones. All they know is that the picking is best sometime in the Fall.

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: tthree said:
    Frog, my old eyes can’t read that. I even got out my magnifying glasses for fly tying and other fine work. Couldn’t read any of it.

    Maybe I should use this emoticon. I gave up the patch for my blind eye a while back but this is what I used to look like.

    the top image is where our hero has a ‘static’ 10:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions (errhh i think it is, lol) the success percentage rate is 72.55% for our hero
    the middle image is where our hero has a ‘static’ 8.55:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions the success percentage rate is 69.62% for our hero
    the bottom image is my original stipulation of an advantage mix where our hero has a ‘variable’ average 8.55:1 advantage against each individual competitor in the field over the various field compositions the success percentage rate is 69.03% for our hero.
    confusing, i know, not even really sure if i’m describing this right, lol

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: aslan said:
    Right. Between what Sage said and what you just said, we’re talking about the colorblind pickers who don’t know green apples from ripe ones. All they know is that the picking is best sometime in the Fall.

    that’s just about right, except they don’t even know that part about the Fall.

  • aslan

     

    Quote: sagefr0g said:
    that’s just about right, except they don’t even know that part about the Fall.

    Yup, but the ones who don’t can’t exactly be called competitors except in the inadvertent sense. By your definition of competitor, some of them be picking apple blossoms.

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: aslan said:
    Yup, but the ones who don’t can’t exactly be called competitors except in the inadvertent sense. By your definition of competitor, some of them be picking apple blossoms.

    damm!!! yer right, we better start crunching some more numbers.

  • Nynefingers

     

    We’re still talking about this?? You’re overthinking this…the expected value of the ring after the cost of all riders can be calculated. You can calculate your odds of getting the ring. Your EV in this specific case is simply the chances of winning the ring times the EV of the ring. The fact that you sometimes pay some of the cost and don’t win doesn’t matter because that is exactly balanced out by the fact that they pay some of the cost the times that you win. Bottom line is you maximize your value by maximizing your chances of winning. Doesn’t matter how many people are there at the time or how they are playing. Just do what you can do to maximize your chances, regardless of the number of players. You know how to do that. So do it

  • aslan

     

    Quote: Nynefingers said:
    We’re still talking about this?? You’re overthinking this…the expected value of the ring after the cost of all riders can be calculated. You can calculate your odds of getting the ring. Your EV in this specific case is simply the chances of winning the ring times the EV of the ring. The fact that you sometimes pay some of the cost and don’t win doesn’t matter because that is exactly balanced out by the fact that they pay some of the cost the times that you win. Bottom line is you maximize your value by maximizing your chances of winning. Doesn’t matter how many people are there at the time or how they are playing. Just do what you can do to maximize your chances, regardless of the number of players. You know how to do that. So do it

    I don’t think we’re talking about blackjack. It has a lot to do with when to buy a ticket and jump on the merry-go-round, but sometimes people get on at the wrong time and grab the brass ring when the odds clearly do not favor them to do so. Then it’s off to find another merry-go-round, if that makes any sense. If you just ride any merry-go-round you happen upon, you will quickly go broke buying tickets, unless you’re fortunate enough to grab the brass ring, and the odds are usually stacked against it. Merry-go-rounds make me dizzy, anyway; I think I may take up Wheels of Fortune.

  • sagefr0g

    anal a’int it

    Quote: Nynefingers said:
    We’re still talking about this?? You’re overthinking this…the expected value of the ring after the cost of all riders can be calculated. You can calculate your odds of getting the ring. Your EV in this specific case is simply the chances of winning the ring times the EV of the ring. The fact that you sometimes pay some of the cost and don’t win doesn’t matter because that is exactly balanced out by the fact that they pay some of the cost the times that you win. Bottom line is you maximize your value by maximizing your chances of winning. Doesn’t matter how many people are there at the time or how they are playing. Just do what you can do to maximize your chances, regardless of the number of players. You know how to do that. So do it

    yah, i know yer correct, especially from a practical vantage point.
    just, do enough of these merry go rides, and you start wondering about stuff.
    then the situation being what it is, ie. being more complex, than a merry go round, and yah really start wondering.
    whatever, should it be so fortunate as to go on a long time, i could definitely imagine taking some more ‘laser’ tactics than the practical approach.

The BlackjackInfo Knowledge Base contains over 200,000 messages posted by the BlackjackInfo community.

Posting and replies to the knowledge base are no longer available, but comments and replies are welcomed on the blog.