The insurance puzzle

  • flyingwind

    The insurance puzzle

    Anyone want insurance?

    The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

    1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
    2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
    3. “Perfect” insurance count, IC = ?
    4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

    What is the IC of #3?
    What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
    How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?

  • tthree

     

    Quote: flyingwind said:
    Anyone want insurance?

    The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

    1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
    2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
    3. “Perfect” insurance count, IC = ?
    4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

    What is the IC of #3?
    What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
    How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?

    That’s Ten value cards -9 all other cards +4. IC of 1.0 or perfect. Take insurance at TC +16 if I remember right.

  • neversplit5s

     

    Here’s an even simpler “perfect insurance count”:

    Tens are -2; everything else is +1.
    IRC = -4 multiplied by the number of decks
    Insure when the count is positive; don’t when it’s negative (at zero it’s break-even)

  • Mersenne Twister

     

    I found this somewhere.

    “true counted” unbalanced insurance count,
    IRC(initial running count) = -4*(number of decks)
    count tag for non-tens are +1
    count tag for tens are -2

    when 6 deck, total 312 cards.
    C : number of cards dealt
    N: number of non-ten cards dealt
    T: number of ten cards dealt
    number of cards in shoe = 312-C
    number of decks in shoe = (312-C)/52
    RC = -24+N-2T
    N+T = C
    probability of insurance win = P

    after some calc,
    TC=52*(-24+C-3T)/(312-C)
    then (52+TC)/156=
    by computation,
    =(96-T)/(312-C)
    this is equal to density of ten cards in shoe =P

    Kelly optimal insurance bet = BR*(3P-1)/2=
    by computation,
    =BR*TC/104

  • NAP

     

    Quote: Mersenne Twister said:
    I found this somewhere.

    Like the post immediately before yours?

  • Mersenne Twister

     

    Quote: NAP said:
    Like the post immediately before yours?

    My interest in that insurance counting system is,
    simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
    (in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves…) for
    betting and playing, and that insurance count system for
    determining insurance buying amount.

    Someone can sim?

  • bejammin075

     

    Quote: Mersenne Twister said:
    My interest in that insurance counting system is,
    simulation result of using 2 counting systems, that is,
    (in shoe game), high BC system (Hi-Lo, EBJ2, Wong Halves…) for
    betting and playing, and that insurance count system for
    determining insurance buying amount.

    Someone can sim?

    You’d have to be counting with two different sets of card tags. You gonna keep track of all that? Like 8 and 9 will be neutral with your Hi-Lo, but you’ll count them as +1 with your insurance count? Good luck!

  • Mersenne Twister

     

    How about 2-man-team at same table?

  • NAP

     

    Quote: Mersenne Twister said:
    How about 2-man-team at same table?

    Now you’re talking.

  • Automatic Monkey

     

    Quote: flyingwind said:
    Anyone want insurance?

    The real question is, how good of an insurance policy do I want?

    1. HiLo, insurance correlation of 0.76
    2. Balanced Zen, IC = 0.85
    3. “Perfect” insurance count, IC = ?
    4. Playing with info, IC = 1.0

    What is the IC of #3?
    What does IC really mean in terms of % EV gain from #1 to 2, 3, and #4?
    How does SD, DD, 6D, and 8D affect these?

    http://www.zenzoneforum.com/threads/19968-Counting-and-Insurance?p=187391#post187391

  • blackjack avenger

    related ?

    Anyone know what the -2 +1 ins count is worth on top of halves or even hi Lo?

  • flyingwind

     

    That was what I was originally asking, although the exact answer may not matter so much (to me now). Thanks AM for correcting some of my statements. I realized some of the more correct ways to view this, too, after some meditation.

  • blackjack avenger

     

    Quote: flyingwind said:
    That was what I was originally asking, although the exact answer may not matter so much (to me now). Thanks AM for correcting some of my statements. I realized some of the more correct ways to view this, too, after some meditation.

    Did u say meditation?
    Great another hippie
    Joking

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