Beating match the dealer?

  • halbruno

    Beating match the dealer?

    I have been reading recently about side bets and read through the threads on this site regarding the match the dealer side bet found today in many casinos.

    I was wondering if this side bet is considered beatable in a heads up/1 on 1 game? It would make sense since only one player is getting all of the cards dealt increasing his chance to capitalize. Of course, when the count went high such as TC +5 Hi-Lo, the player could be really agressive knowing that the chance of matching tens coming out is high. I am thinking of testing this strategy at a local casino.

    I would love to get some feedback. Any thoughts? Thanks.

  • bjcardcounter

     

    there is an index for it I believe. AM wrote about it. Search this site, you will get

  • tthree

     

    With match their are 4 individual ten rank cards. They aren’t going to pay you for a 10 v J. This is a weak correlation. Start side counting aces and sevens. The information on their density properly used greatly increases your win rate. Combine a high density of either of these ranks with an extremely high or low count and maybe you are onto something. An extreme count alone is a very weak indicator of an imbalance in a particular rank(s).

  • Automatic Monkey

     

    Quote: tthree said:
    With match their are 4 individual ten rank cards. They aren’t going to pay you for a 10 v J. This is a weak correlation. Start side counting aces and sevens. The information on their density properly used greatly increases your win rate. Combine a high density of either of these ranks with an extremely high or low count and maybe you are onto something. An extreme count alone is a very weak indicator of an imbalance in a particular rank(s).

    It’s very hard. If you have the 4/11 paytable you can beat it for a little bit using an ordinary count. You can increase this by counting suits, but there is not a linear nor additive relationship. You really need a bunch of guys each counting something different and combining their data… or a computer.

  • EmeraldCityBJ

     

    Quote: halbruno said:
    I have been reading recently about side bets and read through the threads on this site regarding the match the dealer side bet found today in many casinos.

    I was wondering if this side bet is considered beatable in a heads up/1 on 1 game? It would make sense since only one player is getting all of the cards dealt increasing his chance to capitalize. Of course, when the count went high such as TC +5 Hi-Lo, the player could be really agressive knowing that the chance of matching tens coming out is high. I am thinking of testing this strategy at a local casino.

    I would love to get some feedback. Any thoughts? Thanks.

    My first suggestion is to not test something until you have some real numbers to work with. Shooting in the dark with some arbitrary true count that seems right is a recipe for disaster.

    I ran the numbers a couple years ago, but don’t have them readily available to post. I recall that you need a Hi-Lo true count (either positive or negative) in the low teens, and if you flat bet $100 when you have the edge, you’d only make about $10 per 100 hands and take on a bit more variance compared to BJ alone.

    My conclusion then was that if I was going to go through the trouble to commit a couple more indices to memory, there are far better choices than knowing when to place a match bet.

  • FLASH1296

     

    Pragmatically speaking, this is a side-bet that you cannot beat.

  • halbruno

    heads up match the dealer?

    So, even in a heads up game no one feels that the player may have a slight edge at least? The chances of matching seem much greater in that situation.

  • FLASH1296

     

    halbruno,

    Speaking for many of the members here —
    what would make you think that the number
    of players would make any difference at all ?

  • halbruno

    match the dealer reply

    Well, that is what I am interested in finding out! What are your views? It just seems that by playing heads up the frequency of matching the dealer is greater than if played with a full table for example. So, in a heads up situation, perhaps there is a greater chance of profiting on this side bet?

  • tthree

     

    Quote: halbruno said:
    Well, that is what I am interested in finding out! What are your views? It just seems that by playing heads up the frequency of matching the dealer is greater than if played with a full table for example. So, in a heads up situation, perhaps there is a greater chance of profiting on this side bet?

    Why would you think that?

  • Octoberatom

     

    Quote: halbruno said:
    Well, that is what I am interested in finding out! What are your views? It just seems that by playing heads up the frequency of matching the dealer is greater than if played with a full table for example. So, in a heads up situation, perhaps there is a greater chance of profiting on this side bet?

    Since you’re playing heads up, you will win the match the dealer bet more often, but you’ll also be playing that bet much more than if the table was full. The percentage of times that you win with this bet will still be the same, which is -EV.

  • halbruno

     

    Thanks Octobertom for seeing my point and giving me a definite reply. I posted this situation to get some opinions and instead I got criticism! I am trying to improve my game. Thanks again.

  • MangoJ

     

    If this is the concept how you plan to “improve your game” – asking questions and blame the others if the answer doesn’t fit in your little universe – then you will really need good luck on your gambling career.

  • mikeinjersey

     

    I’m with Bruno..

    It’s all people do here on these forums is criticize you if the odds are against your favor. They just look at stats and nothing else.

    There must be 0% creative thinking here.

    Many people continue to win successfully (like myself) by varying their bets and choosing to bet higher at the right time. (without counting)

    If the mods , along with the long term members of this forum just continue to downgrade posts like ours…then they should at-least think about giving us our own forum . With no ‘piss-on’ , ‘degrading’ criticism allowed.

    Just let us talk our sh*t , without interruption. Even the ‘voo-doo’ section won’t qualify…as people get ‘pissed on’ daily there as well.

    Everybody thinks their Elitists here.. (i’m right and you’re wrong) The nerd days are over guys, how bout waking up for a change..

  • Gamblor

     

    Quote: mikeinjersey said:
    I’m with Bruno..

    It’s all people do here on these forums is criticize you if the odds are against your favor. They just look at stats and nothing else.

    There must be 0% creative thinking here.

    Many people continue to win successfully (like myself) by varying their bets and choosing to bet higher at the right time. (without counting)

    If the mods , along with the long term members of this forum just continue to downgrade posts like ours…then they should at-least think about giving us our own forum . With no ‘piss-on’ , ‘degrading’ criticism allowed.

    Just let us talk our sh*t , without interruption. Even the ‘voo-doo’ section won’t qualify…as people get ‘pissed on’ daily there as well.

    Everybody thinks their Elitists here.. (i’m right and you’re wrong) The nerd days are over guys, how bout waking up for a change..

    I am all for creativity, in fact think its crucial for an APs long term success.

    However, what these “nerds” do is provide strong evidence for their “crazy ideas”, e.g., card counting works, with mathematics and computer simulations.

    You provide 0 evidence to support your positions. What, you won? Over how many hours? 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000?

  • shadroch

     

    In theory, you should bet more on winning hands and less on losing hands.
    Thats pretty simple. Its the execution thats a ball buster.

  • paddywhack

     

    Quote: shadroch said:
    In theory, you should bet more on winning hands and less on losing hands.
    Thats pretty simple. Its the execution thats a ball buster.

    Aw, come on Shad, quit sugar-coating it.

  • Most Interesting Man

     

    I agree with ECBJ. This game is “beatable” but not worth it. TC needs to go way off the scales and then the edge is razor thin to that compared to what you get on the main bet. I ran the sim month or two ago. Is there some other counting method more appropriate? Maybe but you’ll probably have to keep multiple counts and still not get a strong advantage.

    Now there is a non counting way to get +EV from MTD but you’ll need a willing victim…

  • moo321

     

    Quote: mikeinjersey said:
    I’m with Bruno..

    It’s all people do here on these forums is criticize you if the odds are against your favor. They just look at stats and nothing else.

    There must be 0% creative thinking here.

    Many people continue to win successfully (like myself) by varying their bets and choosing to bet higher at the right time. (without counting)

    If the mods , along with the long term members of this forum just continue to downgrade posts like ours…then they should at-least think about giving us our own forum . With no ‘piss-on’ , ‘degrading’ criticism allowed.

    Just let us talk our sh*t , without interruption. Even the ‘voo-doo’ section won’t qualify…as people get ‘pissed on’ daily there as well.

    Everybody thinks their Elitists here.. (i’m right and you’re wrong) The nerd days are over guys, how bout waking up for a change..

    You’re on the wrong forum for this type of thinking. You can think whatever you want, but don’t expect sympathy from a card-counting forum. I wouldn’t go to a left-wing forum and talk about my love for George W. Bush and expect a warm response.

  • moo321

     

    Does anyone have the actual indexes? For BJ and SP?

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