Questions about lucky ladies scenario

  • FrankieT

    Questions about lucky ladies scenario

    Can anyone answer these fundamental questions for this basic scenario:

    2d
    Hi-Lo
    0.8 cut off
    LL10


    What is the EV gained from the side bet if you bet $25×2 at +7 and $50×2 at +8 and higher? Added RoR to a $10k BR?

    Is there a simple side count worth adding? How much EV is it worth using the aforementioned betting strategy?

    If anybody could answer any one of these questions it’d be swell.

  • Daggers

     

    maybe a side count of aces? i know a side count of 7 is pretty useful. im not too sure about my advice so you should ask the others on here but i would say a side count of aces would work well although i don’t know the exact EV.

  • tthree

     

    Use the Jstat/Fry with a strike point of TC +10. Your EV is about double than using HILO for the side bet.

  • FrankieT

     

    I noticed in QFIT’s analysis of LL he said that it requires decent pen.

    What kind of pen is required to get a decent return on lucky ladies (a worthwhile return in my book being 6 units an hour or better with a RoR of 2% for $10k).

  • Automatic Monkey

     

    Quote: FrankieT said:
    I noticed in QFIT’s analysis of LL he said that it requires decent pen.

    What kind of pen is required to get a decent return on lucky ladies (a worthwhile return in my book being 6 units an hour or better with a RoR of 2% for $10k).

    The LL sidebet correlates reasonably well to any count you would use for playing and betting. If a DD game is worth playing at all, the LL is free money added on top of whatever your win rate would be. Because LL requires a more extreme count to be profitable than BJ, it will be more dependent on pen.

    If the LL max bet is high relative to your BJ max bet, you might be better off using a tens count (JSTAT/Fry, insurance count, Hi-Opt 1 or 2, etc.) depending on what your needs and capabilities are. But if you’re the kind of guy who can bet a $500 max on a table with a $25 max LL bet, it’s not worth it in any situation to cheat yourself out of BJ EV to squeeze a few extra dollars out of the LL.

  • FrankieT

     

    I guess the question should be how much do you make by betting $25×2 on +7 and higher counts for a 0.8 pen game. There’s no point in asking the amount made by betting higher than that since the limit is generally $25 – so i’ve learned and seen for myself.

  • EmeraldCityBJ

     

    I don’t remember the exact numbers off the top of my head, primarily because I decided long ago not to waste my time with Lucky Ladies.

    If you’re betting $25 at +7, I am pretty sure your hourly win rate from the bet is <$25 per hour. The problem is that you'll probably end up pissing away losing bets for hundreds of hours, and then get paid your EV in one lump sum the day you finally get the Qh pair. The variance is pretty ridiculous, so unless you are able to spend hundreds or thousands of hours on the game, you're just gambling.

    For side counts, the only card that provides a significant amount of additional information is the Qh. As they deal deeper into the deck, the TC required to have an edge on the LL bet decreases, as long as both of the queens are still live. Side counting any other card won't give you much information beyond what you'd get from your primary counting system.

  • cityman

     

    I dabble in Lucky Ladies sidebets here and there, but unfortunately the TC of +7 just doesn’t come around often enough. I generally dare to put out a $1 bet after seeing a whole slew of small cards played. I figure it makes me fit in with the pploppies a little better. Wouldn’t you know it, though…I got both Queens of Hearts in a DD game a couple weeks ago with no sidebet option…

  • Gamblor

     

    Quote: cityman said:
    I dabble in Lucky Ladies sidebets here and there, but unfortunately the TC of +7 just doesn’t come around often enough. I generally dare to put out a $1 bet after seeing a whole slew of small cards played. I figure it makes me fit in with the pploppies a little better. Wouldn’t you know it, though…I got both Queens of Hearts in a DD game a couple weeks ago with no sidebet option…

    I had two QHs in one session. Not betting then either

    Even with that pay scale, the +7 comes up not too infrequently with a certain excellent condition.

  • FrankieT

     

    Quote: EmeraldCityBJ said:
    I don’t remember the exact numbers off the top of my head, primarily because I decided long ago not to waste my time with Lucky Ladies.

    If you’re betting $25 at +7, I am pretty sure your hourly win rate from the bet is <$25 per hour. The problem is that you'll probably end up pissing away losing bets for hundreds of hours, and then get paid your EV in one lump sum the day you finally get the Qh pair. The variance is pretty ridiculous, so unless you are able to spend hundreds or thousands of hours on the game, you're just gambling.

    For side counts, the only card that provides a significant amount of additional information is the Qh. As they deal deeper into the deck, the TC required to have an edge on the LL bet decreases, as long as both of the queens are still live. Side counting any other card won't give you much information beyond what you'd get from your primary counting system.

    I don’t know about the EV of the bet relying that much on the QHQH.

    I was looking on wizardofodds, and half the EV from the bet comes from the 4:1. About 1/4 comes from the 10:1. . 1/5 from the 25:1.

    The 200:1 and 1000:1 account for about 1/10 of the EV.

  • cyclist

     

    I play the lucky ladies when the count justifies it.

    One time I got queen of hearts pair and the dealer had blackjack, but no bet out, count didn’t justify betting it then…

  • tthree

     

    Quote: cyclist said:
    I play the lucky ladies when the count justifies it.

    One time I got queen of hearts pair and the dealer had blackjack, but no bet out, count didn’t justify betting it then…

    I bet everyone started betting it even though the key queens were depleted. Nice discipline. I usually only touch it when it is justified and I am winning my big bets. It looks more like trying to ride a big lucky stretch than, hey, the count is high let’s bet the side bet with my big counting bets. So far I seem to more or less break even on it with this strategy. Maybe a little ahead. Very small sampling, statistically insignificant.

  • cityman

     

    Quote: cyclist said:
    I play the lucky ladies when the count justifies it.

    One time I got queen of hearts pair and the dealer had blackjack, but no bet out, count didn’t justify betting it then…

    same here…saw it on the 3rd hand out of the shoe a few weeks ago. Of course, there’s all sorts of fanfare from the dealer, who then kept pointing at my empty Lucky Ladies sidebet circle before each hand for the rest of the night.

  • jaygruden

     

    I too will play it when the count justifies it and when winning max bets. I hit the 2 queens with dealer Ace up but she did not have BJ. $5 bet at 200-1 payout in this store was a nice score. For the small amount of times I play it, that one win may put me “up for life” on that side bet.

  • southAP

     

    I had a TC of +8 with a $10 side bet got 2 Qof hearts with the Ace up, asked for insurance. The ONLY time where i wish the dealer had the natural but of course didn’t. Good night, 2 weeks later I got the “tap” playing that same dealer.

  • tthree

     

    Quote: southAP said:
    I had a TC of +8 with a $10 side bet got 2 Qof hearts with the Ace up, asked for insurance. The ONLY time where i wish the dealer had the natural but of course didn’t. Good night, 2 weeks later I got the “tap” playing that same dealer.

    If I have big bets out and take insurance on crappy matchups I always hope the dealer has a blackjack. I get an immediate push in a very bad scenario without eating up the cards. Win, win, win.

  • zengrifter

     

    Quote: jaygruden said:
    I too will play it when the count justifies it and when winning max bets. I hit the 2 queens with dealer Ace up but she did not have BJ. $5 bet at 200-1 payout in this store was a nice score. For the small amount of times I play it, that one win may put me “up for life” on that side bet.

    Why was your bet so small? What was the count?

  • zengrifter

     

    Quote: southAP said:
    I had a TC of +8 with a $10 side bet got 2 Qof hearts with the Ace up, asked for insurance.

    Same question: why so small?

  • jaygruden

     

    Quote: zengrifter said:
    Why was your bet so small? What was the count?

    This was in my first few months of counting when I was still red-chipping. Had a count of +6 (Unbalanced KO)……Playing 8D $10 table, spreading $10-$200. I played nothing on LL until +6 then played $5, I’ll jump to $10 at +8. You think this is too low relative to table bet/spread at those counts?

  • zengrifter

     

    Quote: jaygruden said:
    This was in my first few months of counting when I was still red-chipping. Had a count of +6 (Unbalanced KO)……Playing 8D $10 table, spreading $10-$200. I played nothing on LL until +6 then played $5, I’ll jump to $10 at +8. You think this is too low relative to table bet/spread at those counts?

    Yes, at *8 bet $25

  • southAP

     

    Quote: zengrifter said:
    Same question: why so small?

    My bankroll was very limited and at the time I didn’t yet fully understand risk of ruin or what my return would be playing LL. So I kept the side bets small, at that time my spread was only about 1-6 and what I had a friend sim for that was already at 25% ROR. I knew it was profitable but i didnt want to go bust on a side bet throwing up green chips. Eventually I did understand it and ended up almost always maxing out the bet when the count called for it. BTW what is the index if you are using KO?

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