Dahl’s progression and technical anaylsis

  • DT Man

    Dahl’s progression and technical anaylsis

    For real players who go to the casino for blackjack, perhaps the best betting progression system is Dahl”s progression. Blackjack is a game of cycles and the best way to play is by combining basic strategy and Dahl’s Progression with the winning and losing cycles found within each session. Like the stock markets, these cycles can be monitored and used to gauge trends found within each session. Basic strategy, Dahl’s Progression and technical trend monitoring of the session, has produced more winning blackjack sessions for me than any other strategy that I have used. Despite what card counters do in simulated play, real blackjack action requires an approach that is usable in real life. There will be winning and losing sessions, the best approach is to recognize the trend, and continue or terminate play as indicated by the trend. Recently at a casino in upstate NY, I caught a brief upswing trend which allowed me to win $230.00 with a $15 base bet Dahl’s Progression in 20 minutes. I recognized the trend reversal and left the table. I monitored the player who took my seat and found he had a negative then flat trend cycle. Had he used Dahl’s Progression, he would reduced his losses and may have recovered, but he was flat betting and then put all in, only to lose it all.

  • KOLAN

     

    same times i use simelar progression
    1,1,1,1,1, no profit 1,1,1,1,1
    2,2,2,2 no profit 1,1,1,1,1
    3,3,3 no profit 1,1,1,1,1
    4,4 no profit 1,1,1,1,1
    5
    not bad results

  • MoneyPlays

    Huh?

    Quote: DT Man said:
    For real players who go to the casino for blackjack, perhaps the best betting progression system is Dahl”s progression. Blackjack is a game of cycles and the best way to play is by combining basic strategy and Dahl’s Progression with the winning and losing cycles found within each session. Like the stock markets, these cycles can be monitored and used to gauge trends found within each session. Basic strategy, Dahl’s Progression and technical trend monitoring of the session, has produced more winning blackjack sessions for me than any other strategy that I have used. Despite what card counters do in simulated play, real blackjack action requires an approach that is usable in real life. There will be winning and losing sessions, the best approach is to recognize the trend, and continue or terminate play as indicated by the trend. Recently at a casino in upstate NY, I caught a brief upswing trend which allowed me to win $230.00 with a $15 base bet Dahl’s Progression in 20 minutes. I recognized the trend reversal and left the table. I monitored the player who took my seat and found he had a negative then flat trend cycle. Had he used Dahl’s Progression, he would reduced his losses and may have recovered, but he was flat betting and then put all in, only to lose it all.

    The only time you can identify a trend is after it occurs. The cards in the deack are in a random, unknown order. The only way to gain an advantage is to know the composition of the remaining cards in the deck, which is always changing, and whether those remaining cards favor you or the house. Varying the size of your bets does not provide you with any of this information.

    Having said that, you can win money with progression betting strategies, but this is purely determined by luck.

  • itakeyourmoney

     

    Quote: DT Man said:
    For real players who go to the casino for blackjack, perhaps the best betting progression system is Dahl”s progression. Blackjack is a game of cycles and the best way to play is by combining basic strategy and Dahl’s Progression with the winning and losing cycles found within each session. Like the stock markets, these cycles can be monitored and used to gauge trends found within each session. Basic strategy, Dahl’s Progression and technical trend monitoring of the session, has produced more winning blackjack sessions for me than any other strategy that I have used. Despite what card counters do in simulated play, real blackjack action requires an approach that is usable in real life. There will be winning and losing sessions, the best approach is to recognize the trend, and continue or terminate play as indicated by the trend. Recently at a casino in upstate NY, I caught a brief upswing trend which allowed me to win $230.00 with a $15 base bet Dahl’s Progression in 20 minutes. I recognized the trend reversal and left the table. I monitored the player who took my seat and found he had a negative then flat trend cycle. Had he used Dahl’s Progression, he would reduced his losses and may have recovered, but he was flat betting and then put all in, only to lose it all.

    Perhaps the admins ought to consider some kind of monitoring program that will autoban anyone who suggests that a progression system is a good way to play

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: itakeyourmoney said:
    Perhaps the admins ought to consider some kind of monitoring program that will autoban anyone who suggests that a progression system is a good way to play

    surprising as it may be they can have their merits, it’s a lot a matter of where your mind is regarding such ploys and what your objectives are and what your understanding of the possibilities and probabilities are.

  • QFIT

     

    If your goal is to lose money, they are quite useful.

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: QFIT said:
    If your goal is to lose money, they are quite useful.

    there ya go, if that’s where your mind is at, it’s virtually a guarantee.

  • DT Man

     

    Quote: MoneyPlays said:
    The only time you can identify a trend is after it occurs. The cards in the deack are in a random, unknown order. The only way to gain an advantage is to know the composition of the remaining cards in the deck, which is always changing, and whether those remaining cards favor you or the house. Varying the size of your bets does not provide you with any of this information.

    Having said that, you can win money with progression betting strategies, but this is purely determined by luck.

    Not true. The basis of technical trading of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies uses a pattern study which allows the trader to access possible trending patterns. Through careful win – loss profit monitoring at the table, a loss trend can be detected, as I did in NY, resulting in termation of the session. Dahl’s Progression has worked many times for me in the last ten years or so, and I find that it maximizes profits during a winning streak, while minimzing loss. The only drawback was when to quit or continue a session. The technical plan I devised, worked well so I will stick with it. Multiple decks, shuffle machines have destroyed the counters edge. Proper BS play combined with Dahls Progression is now the best way to play.

  • Katweezel

    Progressions progress

    Quote: DT Man said:
    Not true. The basis of technical trading of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies uses a pattern study which allows the trader to access possible trending patterns. Through careful win – loss profit monitoring at the table, a loss trend can be detected, as I did in NY, resulting in termation of the session. Dahl’s Progression has worked many times for me in the last ten years or so, and I find that it maximizes profits during a winning streak, while minimzing loss. The only drawback was when to quit or continue a session. The technical plan I devised, worked well so I will stick with it. Multiple decks, shuffle machines have destroyed the counters edge. Proper BS play combined with Dahls Progression is now the best way to play.

    Nicely put, DT Man. In Australia, it’s often hard to get a seat at a table with hand-shuffled decks. CSMs are hugely popular with casino management. Most BJ players will be increasingly in need of help, what with poor rules, heat and the ever-present machine. Whatever help that form arrives in, they won’t care… If only it does eventually arrive.

  • RingyDingy

    my own progression system

    its called the “Stop Loss Upswing Terminator” or SLUT for short, it is much better than my previous system “Winning House Over Random Equation” or as it was known WHORE.

    Basically it works like this, (and i think you will find its been proven by thousands of simulated hands, and im sure you will all agree a lot of simulations are needed.)

    If a beautiful woman walks past your table, double down, if she is truly amazing, triple down, and if she has her bazookas out, then apply a 10 fold bet down, now if you win this hand, you simply stop betting and give the girl the money.

    Simple and Effective.

    Cheers
    Ringy
    PS dont ask about the other progression method “WIFE”.

  • QFIT

     

    Quote: DT Man said:
    Not true. The basis of technical trading of stocks, bonds, commodities and currencies uses a pattern study which allows the trader to access possible trending patterns. Through careful win – loss profit monitoring at the table, a loss trend can be detected, as I did in NY, resulting in termation of the session. Dahl’s Progression has worked many times for me in the last ten years or so, and I find that it maximizes profits during a winning streak, while minimzing loss. The only drawback was when to quit or continue a session. The technical plan I devised, worked well so I will stick with it. Multiple decks, shuffle machines have destroyed the counters edge. Proper BS play combined with Dahls Progression is now the best way to play.

    There exits many methods of technical analysis in the markets, like:

    Accumulation/Distribution,Aroon Up,Aroon Down,Average True Range,Bollinger Band – Lower,Bollinger Band – Middle,Bollinger Band – Upper,Chaikin Money Flow,Chaikin Oscillator,Chande Momentum Oscillator,DEMA,Detrended Price Oscillator,Directional Movement +DI,Directional Movement -DI,Directional Movement DX,Directional Movement ADX,Directional Movement ADXR,Ease of Movement,Forecast Oscillator,Intraday Momentum Index,Klinger Oscillator,Linear Regression Indicator,MACD,Market Facilitation Index,Mass Index,Momentum,Money Flow Index,Moving Averages – Exponential,Moving Averages – Simple,Moving Averages – Time Series,Negative Volume Index,Positive Volume Index,Price and Volume Trend,Projection Bands and Oscillator,Qstick,r-squared,Range Indicator,Relative Momentum Index,Relative Strength Index,Relative Volatility Index and Inertia,Standard Deviation,Standard Error,Standard Error Bands – Lower,Standard Error Bands – Center,Standard Error Bands – Upper,Stochastic Momentum Index,Stochastic Oscillator %K Up,Stochastic
    Oscillator %K Down,Stochastic Oscillator %D Up,Stochastic Oscillator %D Down,Swing Index,TEMA,Typical Price,Ultimate Oscillator,Vertical Horizontal Filter,Volatility, Chaikin’s,Volume Oscillator,Volume Rate of Change,Weighted Close,Wilder’s Smoothing,Williams’ %R Up,Williams’ %R Down,Williams’ Acc/Dist

    They share one thing in common. They are all influenced by humans. Humans follow the TA curves and make decisions accordingly. That is, TA curves affect markets.

    This is not true at the BJ table. No matter what progressions system you invent, it will not affect the cards. Comparing the markets with BJ makes zero sense.

  • Canceler

     

    Quote: QFIT said:
    They share one thing in common. They are all influenced by humans.

    I used to be a big fan of technical analysis. In fact, the main reason I finally broke down and bought a computer (way back when) was that I found out my stock charts could easily be maintained in Excel.

    Then I found out that a chart of random coin flips would look just like my stock charts.

    But, I thought, my stock charts still reflect real investors making real decisions, so they must have some validity.

    Then I found out that the investors were reacting to random events.

    I can’t believe any chart based on events known to be random can have much value.

  • QFIT

     

    Never been a fan of technical analysis. Their only point, IMHO, is that some people do believe in them. And it is good to know what other people are doing in the market since that effects outcomes. Same thing as listening to Kramer. He may not know what he is talking about. But he has followers and he affects the market rather than predicting it.

  • ChefJJ

     

    Quote: itakeyourmoney said:
    Perhaps the admins ought to consider some kind of monitoring program that will autoban anyone who suggests that a progression system is a good way to play

    Voodoo!

  • fredperson

     

    Quote: itakeyourmoney said:
    Perhaps the admins ought to consider some kind of monitoring program that will autoban anyone who suggests that a progression system is a good way to play

    What a concept….banishing those who disagree with you…
    Wait, where have I heard this before…Joseph Stalin maybe ?

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: fredperson said:
    What a concept….banishing those who disagree with you…

    Disagreeing with people is fine. Disagreeing with facts is a waste of everyone’s time. If people aren’t willing to spend a little time researching what they’re talking about, especially when dozens of links are just a click away, deserves to be censored. This website is for people who want to learn how to play BJ. Anyone who is not willing to learn will not be happy here.

    -Sonny-

  • itakeyourmoney

     

    Quote: fredperson said:
    What a concept….banishing those who disagree with you…
    Wait, where have I heard this before…Joseph Stalin maybe ?

    Nope, I think I’m more like someone who is trying to enlighten others from pursuing things are mathematically proven to lose them money in the long run. Now if you can prove (with actual numbers) that there is a progression system that will lead to profits in the long run then by all means go ahead and share your idea (though I’m pretty sure that if such a system exists the casinos would immediately begin finding ways to make it ineffective, which would end any possibilty it may have for yielding profits).

    So to simplify:

    1. If your progression system DOES NOT WORK you should not share it because you will only look like a fool (and possibly cause others to lose a lot of money).

    2. If your progression system DOES WORK you should not share it because it would immediately become ineffective.

    3. Therefore, you should not share progression systems.

    Let me know if there is a flaw in my logic

  • standard toaster

     

    Quote: fredperson said:
    What a concept….banishing those who disagree with you…
    Wait, where have I heard this before…Joseph Stalin maybe ?

    Did anyone ever claim bjinfo was a democracy?

    Banning people would have a negative effect on the outlook of the forum however it would have a positive effect by allowing the people you may have influenced by keeping their money. It has been proven millions of times a progression does not work. With that said promoting a progression system is a terrible thing to tell people to go out and explore. You will be harming them more than you know.

    I as well as many players here have probably thought they had created a new system that was fail proof when they first started. i even wrote a little book on my progression system and truly believed it would work. I was wrong… simulations and basic math proved my system wrong. As much as it hurt at the time it was something I learned to deal with as you should now. Give it up and keep the winnings you have earned because they will not last.

  • ChefJJ

    Check the Title

    Is this not located in the “Voodoo Betting Strategies” category??? If Ken is going to ban all progression talk on the site, just fold up this section of the boards. Let’s just put it this way: a vast majority of visitors and/or regulars to BJI know that progressions not linked to a count won’t get you over the house edge. On the flip side, let’s give the progression-hunters something to roll with.

    As long as it’s in the Voodoo section, does progression or system talk really hurt BJI?

    good luck

  • KenSmith

     

    Progressionists aren’t going to be banned here. I’m all for open discussions.

    Discuss whatever systems you like in the voodoo section. Of course if you plan to make unjustifiable claims for your system, you can expect to be called out on it here. But if a thread turns nasty, it will likely be closed. The intention is decidely NOT to censor an opinion that differs from the accepted math of the game.

    Everyone who wants to express an opinion that differs from the majority has an opportunity to do so here. Just don’t expect anyone here to believe that you have created a system that somehow overcomes the house edge by varying your bet based on streaks or trends.

  • standard toaster

     

    After rereading my previous post it looks like im a progression nazi

    lol i did not mean to sound like baning progression players was a good thing lol my point was not to tell people its a good thing to look into because a lot of people will try anything.

    I am part of a corvette forum and a guy was complaining about his engine stalling out. Someone jokingly suggested to put sand in the gas tank.. sure enough he did it and his next question was why has me engine seized?

  • Katweezel

    SuperHunch system

    Quote: ChefJJ said:
    Is this not located in the “Voodoo Betting Strategies” category??? If Ken is going to ban all progression talk on the site, just fold up this section of the boards. Let’s just put it this way: a vast majority of visitors and/or regulars to BJI know that progressions not linked to a count won’t get you over the house edge. On the flip side, let’s give the progression-hunters something to roll with.

    As long as it’s in the Voodoo section, does progression or system talk really hurt BJI?

    good luck

    Yeah, right Chef. I have a SUPER HUNCH system. I got it from an impeccable source. It is not for sale.

  • sagefr0g

     

    question…… is taking a ‘hail mary’ (ie. significantly over betting) sort of approach short term in an advantage situation a form of a progression?

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: sagefr0g said:
    question…… is taking a ‘hail mary’ (ie. significantly over betting) sort of approach short term in an advantage situation a form of a progression?

    It’s not a progression since you aren’t raising your bets based on the past few wins and losses. If you are aware that you are taking a huge risk and you willingly accept it then there is nothing wrong with that strategy, just like using a progression system is not voodoo (in my opinion) if you understand the risks and accept the outcome. There is nothing inherently voodoo about progression systems. In fact, for many gamblers they are sometimes the best strategy to use based on their situation. The voodoo part is thinking that there is a magical one that will turn the odds in your favor and make you a long-term winner.

    That’s one of the things I always find funny about this forum. People act like we are all anti-progression system tyrants but we are just anti-misinformation. I don’t mind people talking about progression systems, I just don’t want to see people giving false information and making unrealistic claims about them. Everything else is fair game.

    -Sonny-

  • sagefr0g

     

    Quote: Sonny said:
    It’s not a progression since you aren’t raising your bets based on the past few wins and losses. If you are aware that you are taking a huge risk and you willingly accept it then there is nothing wrong with that strategy, just like using a progression system is not voodoo (in my opinion) if you understand the risks and accept the outcome. There is nothing inherently voodoo about progression systems. In fact, for many gamblers they are sometimes the best strategy to use based on their situation. The voodoo part is thinking that there is a magical one that will turn the odds in your favor and make you a long-term winner.

    That’s one of the things I always find funny about this forum. People act like we are all anti-progression system tyrants but we are just anti-misinformation. I don’t mind people talking about progression systems, I just don’t want to see people giving false information and making unrealistic claims about them. Everything else is fair game.

    -Sonny-

    right, i’m not really sure why i asked that question. sort of i just knew that over betting your advantage by i think is twice what you should bet is in the long run a guaranteed loser long term, and i guess i was wondering if that aspect has elements contributing to ruin similar to progressions do. probably just me confused again.

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