Vegas condition needed

  • ningtong88

    Vegas condition needed

    I am going to Vegas the week before Christmas. I do have the monthly CBJN, but I find them to be somewhat misleading from time to time. Example, last time I was at Wynn, I didn’t find any S17 table at $25min, but the cbjn stated otherwise. This time, I will be playing at Wynn/Encore, MB, Venetian/Palazzo, & possibilly Bellagio/Aria. Could anyone tell me the current conditions for them? I am looking at $25 or $50 min S17 tables. I won’t be going off strip this time as my GF wants to do some shopping. Thanks.

  • nicetrades200303

    MB and Bellagio

    Don’t waste your time at Wynn/Encore and Palazzo/Venetian.

    MB and Bellagio have 2D S17 games with decent pen.

  • jingber05

     

    i thought MB changed their s17 DD to h17? i dont remember seeing any s17 DD on the main floor when i was there in June. Maybe in HL. At mirage however they do have a few s17 DD on the main floor. u might want to check that out.

  • BJgenius007

     

    Quote: nicetrades200303 said:
    Don’t waste your time at Wynn/Encore and Palazzo/Venetian.

    MB and Bellagio have 2D S17 games with decent pen.

    With $100 table minimal in day time and higher at night.

  • paddywhack

     

    You looking for shoe or DD info??

  • ningtong88

     

    Thanks for all the response, guys! I am looking for both shoe and DD. CBJN states that Bellagio offers $25min DD S17 ls rsa .7 deck cut off, is that accurate? Also I heard venetian offers $100 min 6D S17 ls rsa decent pen, is it true also? We probablly will be staying at Wynn/Encore, that’s why I wanted to know about Wynn. I do agree Wynn’s game is medicore at best, but if that’s where we are staying, I may be playing over there a little bit, but $300 min bet for a good game at Wynn is way too much, I can handle $100 at most. I need to find places where there are good stores for my GF to look around, I don’t want her to watch me playing as she gets uncomfortable when I have big bets out. Last time she watched me playing, I got 4 BJ in a row at a high count, I couldn’t press my bets up all the way because she thought it was too much. I will be going during weekdays, so do you think I will get to see decent games at reduced min in these casinos? Thanks again!

  • paddywhack

     

    Bellagio: No LS on the DD. Good luck finding mins less than $50 even in the mornings. Nearly always $100.

    Venetian $100 mins: Last I looked pen was about 75% on the 6D with s17, DAS, LS, RSA.

  • ningtong88

     

    Quote: paddywhack said:
    Bellagio: No LS on the DD. Good luck finding mins less than $50 even in the mornings. Nearly always $100.

    Venetian $100 mins: Last I looked pen was about 75% on the 6D with s17, DAS, LS, RSA.

    I can handle $50 to $100 min. I just wanted to make sure CBJN was right, but it turned out it is not right. Good thing I asked you all first. Thanks.

  • Solo player

     

    Quote: nicetrades200303 said:
    Don’t waste your time at Wynn/Encore and Palazzo/Venetian.

    MB and Bellagio have 2D S17 games with decent pen.

    Mb has one table of s17 dd 100$ in hi-limit. Main floor 4 tables h17 dd 25$-50$ mins.

  • kewljason

     

    Quote: Solo player said:
    Mb has one table of s17 dd 100$ in hi-limit. Main floor 4 tables h17 dd 25$-50$ mins.

    BUT, MB is one of many places that their really is a big difference, heat-wise in playing the HL vs the main floor. This is an important part of the equation for me.

  • Solo player

     

    Quote: kewljason said:
    BUT, MB is one of many places that their really is a big difference, heat-wise in playing the HL vs the main floor. This is an important part of the equation for me.

    I always take a pass on the hi-limit game.

  • kewljason

     

    Quote: Solo player said:
    I always take a pass on the hi-limit game.

    Me 2, Solo player! I walk by and see a great game with a .18% house advantage. But, no one is playing. The dealer and 3 pit folks are standing and waiting. To me the odds of that game are worse than if it was 6-5!

    I am not looking for the best game that I can win the most from in the next 20 minutes. I am looking for a decent game that I can beat today, but still be welcome back to win again going forward, later in the week, next week and next month.

  • jingber05

     

    ive walked by and see the HL DD game be as high as 500min…

  • paddywhack

     

    Quote: kewljason said:
    I walk by and see a great game with a .18% house advantage. But, no one is playing. The dealer and 3 pit folks are standing and waiting.

    Not an uncommon occurrence in those HL games. When the pit outnumbers the players it’s NEVER good.

  • chichow

     

    Quote: kewljason said:
    Me 2, Solo player! I walk by and see a great game with a .18% house advantage. But, no one is playing. The dealer and 3 pit folks are standing and waiting. To me the odds of that game are worse than if it was 6-5!

    I am not looking for the best game that I can win the most from in the next 20 minutes. I am looking for a decent game that I can beat today, but still be welcome back to win again going forward, later in the week, next week and next month.

    I’ve played both the main floor and HL at MB. It is truly truly a huge difference in heat. Often there is a pit boss staring at the game the whole time in HL. Only sometimes is there a pit boss split between two tables in HL.

    strictly from a rules perspective, it is a nice game.

  • chichow

     

    Quote: ningtong88 said:
    I can handle $50 to $100 min. I just wanted to make sure CBJN was right, but it turned out it is not right. Good thing I asked you all first. Thanks.

    There are significant differences between playing $50 – $100 mins for DD in Vegas. I only mentioning this point since I am reading casualness in your post, but I could be completely wrong.

    A reasonable 1-6 spread at DD puts you into purple territory when playing $100 mins. Purple scrutiny is much higher than black scrutiny.

    Many conservative AP’s would say 20k is a decent bankroll for $25 mins…so $50 – $100 mins requires proportionally more $$$

    Then again maybe your asian so you heat levels will be lower.

  • BJgenius007

     

    Quote: chichow said:
    There are significant differences between playing $50 – $100 mins for DD in Vegas. I only mentioning this point since I am reading casualness in your post, but I could be completely wrong.

    A reasonable 1-6 spread at DD puts you into purple territory when playing $100 mins. Purple scrutiny is much higher than black scrutiny.

    Many conservative AP’s would say 20k is a decent bankroll for $25 mins…so $50 – $100 mins requires proportionally more $$$

    Then again maybe your asian so you heat levels will be lower.

    No, 20K is the required bankroll for $5 min shoe game and $10 min DD game.

    50k is the required bankroll for $25 min DD game.

  • Zerg

     

    Quote: BJgenius007 said:
    No, 20K is the required bankroll for $5 min shoe game and $10 min DD game.

    50k is the required bankroll for $25 min DD game.

    I disagree. In my opinion you should be playing full Kelly until you hit $25 tables. You say 13% ROR. I say 87% chance of success!

  • kewljason

     

    Quote: Zerg said:
    I disagree. In my opinion you should be playing full Kelly until you hit $25 tables. You say 13% ROR. I say 87% chance of success!

    RoR is only part of the issue. Playing full Kelly means big swings. For an inexperienced player this can be difficult to deal with mentally and can result in improper betting patterns like over betting (chasing loses) and under betting (scared money).

  • chichow

     

    Quote: BJgenius007 said:
    No, 20K is the required bankroll for $5 min shoe game and $10 min DD game.

    50k is the required bankroll for $25 min DD game.

    *Sigh*

    How can you be so absolute in what you say without knowing bet ramps or wonging or even what is considered a unit (ref. previous poll and discussion about what is a unit)?

    Regardless whether or not we say is 20k or 50k, if you take a quick 3 minute look at the OP’s posts (there aren’t that many), you’ll see that its highly unlikely that the OP has either a 20k or 50k bankroll for $25 min, much less the $50 – $100 min games that he/she thinks he/she can play.

  • chichow

     

    On second hand, say whatever you want (whether you’re accurate or not is another story)

    I erred and didn’t review the tape (past posts)

  • cgy606

     

    Quote: chichow said:
    *Sigh*

    How can you be so absolute in what you say without knowing bet ramps or wonging or even what is considered a unit (ref. previous poll and discussion about what is a unit)?

    Regardless whether or not we say is 20k or 50k, if you take a quick 3 minute look at the OP’s posts (there aren’t that many), you’ll see that its highly unlikely that the OP has either a 20k or 50k bankroll for $25 min, much less the $50 – $100 min games that he/she thinks he/she can play.

    The required bankroll for any game depends on what type of game this is (Not just the rules, but the spread and most importantly the cut cut cut cut cut!!!!!!). Cut card position vastly effects EV and also Variance (The deeper the the cut the higher the variance however, for bankroll considerations, as the cut card gets deeper the EV grows much faster per additional card cut in play then the variance does, hence for better cut games, you can actually have a higher session bankroll but a lower total bankroll because the SCORE is higher)

    Also you must take into account the speed of the game. In pitch games dealt face down you can probably get 100 rounds an hour at most heads up. However in shoe games, because the cards are dealt face up and players cannot touch cards, action is much faster and you might be able to get 200+ rounds per hour head up.

    To give you an idea of what type of bankroll is required to for this game (Which I believe should be 2D S17+DAS), using Hi-Lo and I18, spreading 1-6, and playing only 1 hand at all times (If you play two hands, then you must also take into account that the result of the two hands are correlated and thus there is a covariance), if they deal 1.5/2 (a fantastic game that is available in the US, but maybe not in LV) BJ Attack gives:

    µ=2.66 per 100 & σ=29.16

    For an RoR of 1% that means your BR = 734 units
    For an RoR of 5% that means your BR = 478 units.

    For any higher of an RoR, I would suggest that your bankroll be replenishable, otherwise the chance that you will lose say 50% of your bankroll and have to reduce your unit size will be quite large. This can effect the psyche of a player in a profound way making these numbers worthless if the player is not disciplined.

    So for $25 unit size, a bankroll of at least 12k is require for this type of game. However, the conditions at these table will not be optimal (You probably wont be able to get heads up action). When playing with other players, the rounds per hour go down and furthermore, the EV will go down because in advantageous situations, the other players will be eating 10’s and aces whereas in heads up situations you will get a higher proportion of advantage hands per 100.

    My recommendation is that at non-peak hours, you should be able to find empty $50 min tables. A BR of about 40k would make this game vary profitable, with about $133 / hour. Your return on investment for 1 month play (Say 100 hours) is about 33%. The chance that you will be even or up at one months play is about 82%. When considering the profitability of owning certain stocks or business, nothing comes even close to that (except maybe selling drugs LOL). Not bad!!

  • BJgenius007

     

    Quote: chichow said:
    *Sigh*

    How can you be so absolute in what you say without knowing bet ramps or wonging or even what is considered a unit (ref. previous poll and discussion about what is a unit)?

    Regardless whether or not we say is 20k or 50k, if you take a quick 3 minute look at the OP’s posts (there aren’t that many), you’ll see that its highly unlikely that the OP has either a 20k or 50k bankroll for $25 min, much less the $50 – $100 min games that he/she thinks he/she can play.

    Of course you have to assume normal circumstances applied, that include reasonable penetration, rules and spread, most important is that strongest players should have +2.25% advantage and good players should have +1.75% advantage.

    This is highlight from RoR table:

    For +1.75% ev

    Bankroll RoR
    75 Max Bets 11.422%
    100 Max Bets 5.542%
    125 Max Bets 2.689%
    150 Max Bets 1.305%
    175 Max Bets 0.633%
    200 Max Bets 0.307%

    For +2.25% ev

    Bankroll RoR
    50 Max Bets 15.571%
    75 Max Bets 6.144%
    100 Max Bets 2.425%
    125 Max Bets 0.958%
    150 Max Bets 0.378%

    Long term goal of BJ players is to bet 1/4 Kelly (0.5% RoR) and has +2% ev. So the bankroll should be 150 or 200 max bets. For people playing shoe spreading $25 to $400, the bankroll requirement will be 80K. For people playing shoe spreading $10 to $200, the bankroll requirement will be 40K. For people playing DD spreading $10 to $80, the bankroll requirement will be 16K.

  • chichow

    again

    Look.

    I say 20k (and I should have prefaced that with heavy heavy wonging and short session).

    Another poster says 12k. Then again a 1.5/2 DD game is hard to find in LV

    You say 80k. Then again you mention $10 DD which is also hard to find in LV

    My point is that

    #1 the answer is going to vary greatly depending on the situation (OPs skill level, OPs style of play, actual playing conditions – not just the general rules at a particular casino)

    #2 the OP is likely betting at levels over his bankroll whether it is 16 / 20 / 80k

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