Predicting Roulette??

  • lucfayt13

    Predicting Roulette??

    Roulette… i’m aware that skilled roulette dealers can get the particular number they want but most at best, gets the particular sector. truely skilled roulette dearlers can get their number dead on. though not 100% but at least 50% of the time.
    thus i’ve this thinking: since roulette dealers can aqquire this skill overtime, how about us? can we too? i’m not talking about we, being able to spin the ball and let it land in the particular number we want. i’m saying can we aqquire the skill to predict where the number will land exactly or at least which sector of the wheel after watching countless of spins?

    i’ve read before a book about roulette saying there’s this guy who stands at the roulette wheel for at least 8 hours a day. in 3 months he is able to roughly predict the sector where the ball lands. in 6 months he started betting and won most of the time. and in 1 year he quit, due to too much attention from the casino. however he had won an enormous amt of money.

    well, when i read the book, i was only half-believing. till now i’m still not sure. therefore i seek for your comments. what do u think about this? do u think it’s possible?? of course i’m not talking about with the help of an electronic device. i’m saying without electronic device.

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: lucfayt13 said:
    Roulette… i’m aware that skilled roulette dealers can get the particular number they want but most at best, gets the particular sector. truely skilled roulette dearlers can get their number dead on.

    That’s just an urban legend. There is no dealer in the world who can control the outcome to any reasonable degree, not even to a particular half of the wheel. If they could, why would they still be working?

    Quote: lucfayt13 said:
    i’m saying can we aqquire the skill to predict where the number will land exactly or at least which sector of the wheel after watching countless of spins?

    Yes. There are players who use visual prediction to estimate where the ball will land. It takes a lot of practice and certain conditions, but it can be done. Some people also use visual techniques for the Big 6 wheel.

    Quote: lucfayt13 said:
    i’ve read before a book about roulette saying there’s this guy who stands at the roulette wheel for at least 8 hours a day. in 3 months he is able to roughly predict the sector where the ball lands.

    There are several ways to beat roulette. The two that are most widely published are biased wheel play and visual prediction. I’m not sure which book you read but it could be talking about either technique.

    Biased wheel play involves clocking a wheel (or several wheels) and analyzing the results to see if any of the numbers occur unusually often. It might indicate a particular number or a certain section of the wheel. Sometimes you might find several numbers. You can then determine your betting strategy based on the advantage and variance of the number you bet on.

    Visual prediction involves calculating the speed of the wheel, the speed and momentum of the ball, and a few other things to estimate where the ball will ultimately land.

    Both techniques involve lots of patience, practice and calculations. It isn’t easy, but it can be done.

    -Sonny-

  • lucfayt13

     

    hi sonny! thanks for ya comments. unfortunately i forgotten which book i read about roulette. what the book is trying to say is that that particular guy aqquire his skill to predict the roulette through watching countless of spins and predict it visually. but did not state how is it done. and it’s on unbiased wheel.

    and talking about biased wheels, i do not believe in it! well it’s not that i doubt the existence of biased wheels, i’m aware that they exist. but perhaps that was the olden times? in the 21st century now technology advances so much and casinoes checks their roulette wheels so regularly that if u were to look for a biased wheel, it may not be different from finding a needle in a haysack.
    if u were to find 1, i would say that u’re extremely luck and the biased wheel won’t last long before they are serviced.

    another thing ,talking about skilled roulette dealers, it’s a fact that they really can have control over it. i’m not trying to make u believe in it, anyway it’s everyone’s choice to make whether to believe in anything.

    the more important thing that i’m interested is that do u know of any way to read the wheel visually? by calculating the speed of wheel and velocity of the ball using the human brain seems real tough. and we only have a short limit of time to place the bets after the wheel is spun. anyway i hope u can still share anything u know regarding this issue thank you

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: lucfayt13 said:
    in the 21st century now technology advances so much and casinoes checks their roulette wheels so regularly that if u were to look for a biased wheel, it may not be different from finding a needle in a haysack.

    I agree. The casinos usually keep an eye on their tables and take countermeasures against any biases they find. In some cases they might just rotate the wheels to different tables every few months so I believe there are still opportunities, but trying to find them is probably a waste of time.

    Quote: lucfayt13 said:
    another thing ,talking about skilled roulette dealers, it’s a fact that they really can have control over it.

    All of the studies I’ve read show that it isn’t possible, but I would love to see evidence to the contrary.

    Quote: lucfayt13 said:
    the more important thing that i’m interested is that do u know of any way to read the wheel visually?

    I’ve read a few sources but I’ve never tried it. If you’re interested, here are a few links:

    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4423
    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=6586

    -Sonny-

  • shadroch

     

    IF a dealer were to fine tune his skill so that he could land the ball in a small quadrant,it would do him no good whatsoever. He obviously can’t bet on himself and working in tandem with a player is illegal.So there might be folks that could do it,but they have developed a skill that is pretty useless.

  • moo321

     

    I’m not so sure that working with a player would be illegal. You’re not doing anything other than dealing the game “normally”. No device.

  • ChefJJ

     

    Quote: moo321 said:
    I’m not so sure that working with a player would be illegal.

    Seems like they could find a way to convict on that.

  • aslan

     

    Quote: ChefJJ said:
    Seems like they could find a way to convict on that.

    I’m sure there are ways to visually predict the likely range into which the ball will fall, but it likely takes months of practice with your own wheel, whose type must be in use in casinos. There are some modern wheels that are probably not worth the effort since their newer design introduces a greater degree of chance in the final destination of the ball. Visual prediction is a project I hope to get started on in the next year.

  • Brock Windsor

     

    Quote: moo321 said:
    I’m not so sure that working with a player would be illegal. You’re not doing anything other than dealing the game “normally”. No device.

    I agree with you. So long as your dealer carries out the game precisely as taught by the casino. I have thought of working with a dealer outside of a casino to track his shuffle or dealer signature in roulette, I don’t consider this criminal. The casino may catch on though and he’ll lose his job. Hopefully by then you’ve made a nice retirement. I did hear of a dealer getting fired because he was spinning the 45:1 Jackpot on the Big 6 Wheel too often. He wasn’t colluding, just wanted to see if he could hit it and win for the players.
    BW

  • Brock Windsor

    tell me more Sonny…

    Quote: Sonny said:
    Some people also use visual techniques for the Big 6 wheel.

    I’m very interested in this. Right now with 54 spots on the wheel I count the total number of revolutions (hopefully less than 4) + number of spots the dealer spins. Calculating right handed spins seperately from left handed spins. After 10 or 12 spins (usually a dealer is only consistent with their dominate arm) I look for some sort of consistency and try to see which number will be hit based on that consistency. I really don’t have any concrete knowledge of a solid betting strategy, if the jackpot or 20:1 is within a few spots of my predicted space, I bet it. Otherwise I just bet my predicted space and its immediate neighbours. My basic strategy is no bet or $1 on the $1 when I am counting the spins. What does Grosjean say is the optimal way to play this game?
    BW

  • ChefJJ

     

    Quote: Brock Windsor said:
    I agree with you. So long as your dealer carries out the game precisely as taught by the casino. I have thought of working with a dealer outside of a casino to track his shuffle or dealer signature in roulette, I don’t consider this criminal. The casino may catch on though and he’ll lose his job. Hopefully by then you’ve made a nice retirement. I did hear of a dealer getting fired because he was spinning the 45:1 Jackpot on the Big 6 Wheel too often. He wasn’t colluding, just wanted to see if he could hit it and win for the players.
    BW

    Yeah, I guess it’s more of an issue of company policy and less of against the law. I always thought that many of the gaming corporations had some anti-collusion policies between dealers & patrons. Just like the dealers aren’t usually allowed to play in the same place they work.

    As usual, I could be wrong. But it seems like any dealer who wants to keep their job wouldn’t go through all that.

  • moo321

     

    Well, you just need to find a dealer who doesn’t care about keeping their job. Or plant your own dealer…

  • ChefJJ

     

    Quote: moo321 said:
    Well, you just need to find a dealer who doesn’t care about keeping their job.

    Judging by how grumpy some of them are, it seems like that wouldn’t be that hard!

  • Sonny

     

    The easiest way to beat roulette:

    http://p066.ezboard.com/Roulette-20k-stolen-from-the-Mirage/fthedealersloungefrm46.showMessage?topicID=93.topic (Link is dead)

    -Sonny-

  • SilentBob420BMFJ

     

    Quote: lucfayt13 said:
    truely skilled roulette dearlers can get their number dead on. though not 100% but at least 50% of the time.

    are you nuts? 50% of the time land on the EXACT number they want? you cant be serious.. yes, and i can predict what card will come out of the shoe with 50% accuracy too.. a dealer can be skilled enuf to make the ball land in a certain portion of the wheel more than usual, but we are talking about very small numbers here.. dealers do this by accident tho, not on purpose, because some dealers spin the exact same way every time, but then there is wheel speed to take into account, but if the wheel was sitting still, a dealer could get the ball to land in a certain number more than usual, but certainly not with 50% accuracy, but the wheel does spin.. there is a 5.26% house edge in roulette.. you will NEVER overcome that, even if you had a bias wheel with a dealer who spins the same every time, and you calculated wheel speed somehow, you still would prolly be at like 4% house edge

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: SilentBob420BMFJ said:
    even if you had a bias wheel with a dealer who spins the same every time, and you calculated wheel speed somehow, you still would prolly be at like 4% house edge

    That’s ridiculous even for you Bob!

    -Sonny-

  • RJT

     

    Quote: SilentBob420BMFJ said:
    you still would prolly be at like 4% house edge

    Bob consider – there are 38 numbers on a US roulette wheel, when you hit a number straight up you get paid 35 to 1 so even if you could say that there were 3 numbers on the wheel that were sure not to come up, each of the other numbers will come up 1 in every 35 times and every time they do you’ll get paid 1 to 35.

    1/35*35 – 34/35 = 1 – .971 = +2.86%

    There’s an advantage right there. You don’t need to be exact, just rule out enough numbers that you know won’t come up to overcome the house edge.

    RJT.

  • moo321

     

    Quote: RJT said:
    Bob consider – there are 38 numbers on a US roulette wheel, when you hit a number straight up you get paid 35 to 1 so even if you could say that there were 3 numbers on the wheel that were sure not to come up, each of the other numbers will come up 1 in every 35 times and every time they do you’ll get paid 1 to 35.

    1/35*35 – 34/35 = 1 – .971 = +2.86%

    There’s an advantage right there. You don’t need to be exact, just rule out enough numbers that you know won’t come up to overcome the house edge.

    RJT.

    But this is a rather unrealistic scenario. The 5% house edge is a big problem in roulette. You’d be better doing ANYTHING roulette related in Europe, where they have single zero, and en prison, for a house edge closer to 1%.

  • SilentBob420BMFJ

     

    Quote: Sonny said:
    That’s ridiculous even for you Bob!

    -Sonny-

    what do u mean? are u saying im over or under exaggerating/right/wrong

    Quote: RJT said:
    Bob consider – there are 38 numbers on a US roulette wheel, when you hit a number straight up you get paid 35 to 1 so even if you could say that there were 3 numbers on the wheel that were sure not to come up, each of the other numbers will come up 1 in every 35 times and every time they do you’ll get paid 1 to 35.

    1/35*35 – 34/35 = 1 – .971 = +2.86%

    There’s an advantage right there. You don’t need to be exact, just rule out enough numbers that you know won’t come up to overcome the house edge.

    RJT.

    never thot of it like that.. they pay 1:35 on numbers right? so if your rule out 3 numbers (38-3=35), the house edge is zero, not player edge of 2.86

  • RJT

     

    No, because 1 in 35 times i’ll get paid 35 units, whereas the other 34 spins i’ll only lose 1 unit. 35-34=1 so i’ve won one unit ever 35 spins (on average).

    RJT.

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: SilentBob420BMFJ said:
    what do u mean? are u saying im over or under exaggerating/right/wrong

    Over exaggerating once again. Saying things like “Roulette can’t be beat” and “There’s no more +EV VP anywhere” are what is holding you back from being an AP. If a 5.26% advantage is impossible to beat, how do you think people beat the 10% vig on sports betting? How do people beat the 3.37% house edge at Three Card Poker, or the 24% house edge at Big 6? The house edge usually has nothing to do with the ability to beat a game. It’s all about beating the cards/wheel/dealer, not the game. Being an AP is all about finding ways to beat the games that seem impossible to win, like 6:5 BJ and CSMs.

    You can’t just automatically dismiss something because it doesn’t make sense to you. You have to sit down and think about it first. Sometimes you have to do a little math too. Maybe do a little research too before you say that something is impossible. It took RJT about one minute to show you how roulette can mathematically be beaten. It’s just a simple EV calculation of a biased wheel that shows over a 2% advantage. That’s much bigger than most card counters would ever expect. Imagine what kind of advantage you could have if you had a more accurate prediction and could narrow the outcome down to 8 numbers instead of 35!

    Don’t be so quick to judge.

    -Sonny-

  • moo321

     

    No one addressed my comment. Why don’t you guys try this stuff in Europe, where the house edge is 1/4 what it is here?

  • SilentBob420BMFJ

     

    Quote: Sonny said:
    Over exaggerating once again. Saying things like “Roulette can’t be beat” and “There’s no more +EV VP anywhere” are what is holding you back from being an AP. If a 5.26% advantage is impossible to beat, how do you think people beat the 10% vig on sports betting? How do people beat the 3.37% house edge at Three Card Poker, or the 24% house edge at Big 6? The house edge usually has nothing to do with the ability to beat a game. It’s all about beating the cards/wheel/dealer, not the game. Being an AP is all about finding ways to beat the games that seem impossible to win, like 6:5 BJ and CSMs.

    You can’t just automatically dismiss something because it doesn’t make sense to you. You have to sit down and think about it first. Sometimes you have to do a little math too. Maybe do a little research too before you say that something is impossible. It took RJT about one minute to show you how roulette can mathematically be beaten. It’s just a simple EV calculation of a biased wheel that shows over a 2% advantage. That’s much bigger than most card counters would ever expect. Imagine what kind of advantage you could have if you had a more accurate prediction and could narrow the outcome down to 8 numbers instead of 35!

    Don’t be so quick to judge.

    -Sonny-

    i dont know who you take me as, or who you think of yourself as, but it appears you would like to get a tattoo that says “im a real AP” and you would like a certificate saying “official AP”.. i could say how i think im an AP, but i dont think of it like that, its not always a simple yes/no.. i am playing at an advantage at bj, but i dont care what label i have, i really dont.. somebody could tell you that because you are spreading 1-8 instead of 1-10 your not a true ap, and another could say that they are an ap just because they lowered the house edge, its all relative, and it seems to me that a lot of people on here that use that term are basically saying “i am smarter than you, and love pointing that out all the time”..

    i have told you before, when i say NEVER or ALWAYS i dont mean it 100%.. for instance, if i said, sonny, you will NEVER become president, cant you figure out what i mean by that? you do realize that a lot of people on this forum arent too bright and that if one of us says “oh ya, roulette can easily be beat” or something to that tune, that others will do stupid crap like watch the wheel for 5 minutes and think “i found a bias”, i am exaggerating purposely to basically say that it takes insane skill and patience to beat roulette, or to video +ev vp, well, not skill for the vp, but its just super rare, and if im wrong, then so are the authors of the 7 or so vp books i read, and those were from 2-10 years ago! you know how casinos have cracked down on vp now (or mabye you dont, along with the other dude who claimed that +ev vp is abundant).. so i have about 7 books, and 7 casinos worth of evidence that +ev vp is rare, as not 1 machine in chicagoland is +ev, i checked extensively, and obviously we arent counting progressives, most of which have crappy pay tables anyways..

    yes, i admit i will quickly say something, and then look back and say wait a minute, i was wrong about that, but you guys take stuff way too literally.. if i say “you wont find 2:1 blackjack” i am simply saying to the people on here who dont know much, that dont drive all over the damn place thinking you have a 40% chance of finding one or something, thats all.. sonny, i think your smart and i listen to what you say, but sometimes you totally dont get me..

    you seriously think that i think that the house edge is how i base if you can beat it or not? thats stupid.. you cant beat a slot with a 1% house edge, yet you could beat a texas holdem game even if the house took 15% of all bets.. i believe i have said a lot of smart things on here (and a lot of dumb ones too), and for you to think that i believe something ploppyish is foolish

    notice how a lot of times i say “i am guessing here”, “about”, “around”, “probably”, etc.. when have i ever said “i am right, i am 100% sure, there is no way i can be proved wrong, i did no math on this but i am the smartest person ever”? also, a lot of times i am expecting to be proved wrong.. i like it when i say “thats not really possible” and somebody says “actually..” (altho most of the time they are being technical)

  • Sonny

     

    Quote: moo321 said:
    No one addressed my comment. Why don’t you guys try this stuff in Europe, where the house edge is 1/4 what it is here?

    When you’re dealing with such big advantages as this, the house edge almost doesn’t matter. As I said, you’re beating the wheel not the game. The difference between beating a wheel with 38 slots and one with 37 slots is often insignificant.

    -Sonny-

  • RJT

     

    Quote: Sonny said:
    When you’re dealing with such big advantages as this, the house edge almost doesn’t matter. As I said, you’re beating the wheel not the game. The difference between beating a wheel with 38 slots and one with 37 slots is often insignificant.

    -Sonny-

    Lol, now now Sonny. This is far from insignificant. If you could – as you mentioned before – predict that the ball was going to land on one of only 8 numbers you’d have a situation where you’d win 1 extra unit per 8 spins. Assuming an average of 40 spins an hour that’s 5 units extra an hour and even with a $50 a nice $250 extra win.
    These are figures that a counter would start selling body parts to get at, but will never happen in the field of blackjack without cheating. In terms of roulette it may not seem to make much of a % difference to your ultimate win as your advantage is so huge, but to us regular non wheel tracking folkells, used to scrapping round on the tables for and extra couple of 10ths of a % advantage, that there’s a meaty prize.

    RJT.

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