High Cards Streaks

DonR

Well-Known Member
#1
As we play the game, we hope that the count will start rising and eventually reach the levels where we can increase our bets. With high TC's, we anticipate getting good hands and making some money. So, we are basically waiting for a streak of high value cards.

But what if there is a streak of those high value cards at the beginning of the shoe? So, now the count just plummets down, and we are supposed to leave the table, because we don't want to play those negative counts. Since this scenario dictates leaving the table after only a hand or two played, aren't we potentially missing an opportunity to win some hands, riding this wave of high cards? Pretty much the same wave we are hoping for at those high counts.

Why is a streak of high cards bad for us early in the game, or at any other point, for that matter, and it is good for us only if it is preceded by a streak of low cards, creating those favorable high TC's? Even late in the shoe, especially with poor penetrations, there is no guarantee that the TC will not just keep on climbing, leaving all those "good" cards behind the cut card, never to be seen by us.

We hope to see a few hands with predominantly high cards, when the TC is high and we have our bigger bets out there, but the same few hands, rich in high cards, automatically chase us away, when they come at neutral counts.

When is the best time to leave, or to take a break, when we see such a streak of high cards? If we leave right away, as soon as the count reaches our Wong out setpoint, that is a pretty safe bet, but again, aren't we maybe missing an opportunity to win a few more hands? Would a better approach be waiting for the streak to stop (for example leaving only after a hand in which the running count finally started going up, after plummeting down for a few hands)? Or maybe playing until you lose a hand, or two, provided you've been winning those hands?

Personally, I leave (take a break), as soon as I reach the Wong out point, but I always had these thoughts of whether it is really the best thing to do.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#2
DonR said:
aren't we potentially missing an opportunity to win some hands, riding this wave of high cards? Pretty much the same wave we are hoping for at those high counts.
Yes, you are potentially missing an opportunity to win during a streak, just as you are potentially missing an opportunity to roll 00 back-to-back in roulette and turn $1 into $1000.

When you see a bunch of high cards come out, the chances that MORE high cards will come out is lower than the chances that more LOW cards will come out. Sure, you'll be kicking yourself when the table is dealt 4 blackjacks at a TC of -6, but the probability that you'll be kicking yourself is low.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#3
Incidentally, some statistics on counts bouncing back from low counts (6D shoe):

70% penetration
Percentage of total shoes that reach TC -1: 78%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -1 that reach TC +1 afterward: 50%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -1 that reach TC +2 afterward: 34%
Percentage of total shoes that reach TC -2: 58%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -2 that reach TC +1 afterward: 18%

75% penetration
Percentage of total shoes that reach TC -1: 80%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -1 that reach TC +1 afterward: 56%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -1 that reach TC +2 afterward: 39%
Percentage of total shoes that reach TC -2: 62%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -2 that reach TC +1 afterward: 22%

80% penetration
Percentage of total shoes that reach TC -1: 82%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -1 that reach TC +1 afterward: 60%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -1 that reach TC +2 afterward: 47%
Percentage of total shoes that reach TC -2: 67%
Percentage of shoes that reach TC -2 that reach TC +1 afterward: 27%

And of course, the count is symmetrical about 0, such that the probability of a shoe reaching TC +1 is the exact same as the probability of a shoe reaching TC -1; all the statistics work for Wonging in at high counts as well.
 

DonR

Well-Known Member
#4
callipygian said:
When you see a bunch of high cards come out, the chances that MORE high cards will come out is lower than the chances that more LOW cards will come out.
Well, if you see a bunch of high cards come out, that only means that there are more low cards in the rest of the shoe, but you don't really know where they are. Especially in multi deck shoes, like the dreaded 8D shoes, there could easily be another few hands of nothing but high cards.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that we hope to reach the part of the shoe that is rich in high cards, to increase our bet and hope to win a few good hands. However, if we hit that part of the shoe while the count is still neutral, then because of these high cards coming out, TC will drop very fast, and we are supposed to leave.

Imagine, just as an example, the cards are stacked in such a manner in an 8D shoe, that there are 2 decks of nothing but high cards (or predominantly high cards), clumped together. Now, if these 2 decks are the first 2 decks to be dealt, we'll be out of the game after a couple of hands only, because of the count going down. If the very same 2 decks are somewhere in the middle of the shoe, or even better, close to the end of the shoe, that is pretty much a dream scenario for us. So, the very same groups of cards are looked at very differently by us, just because of their location inside the shoe.

Mathematically speaking, everything is clear, and that is how I play, anyway. A bunch of high cards coming out, dropping the TC, and I'm out (at my Wong out setpoint). But, I've always thought about how funny it is that the location of these bundles of high cards, if they even exist in a particular shoe, is so very important for our play decisions. I guess we don't want them too early in the shoe, because they will chase us away. Later in the shoe, and we can make some money. Or lose it...but that's a different story.:)
 

kewljason

Well-Known Member
#5
DonR said:
I guess we don't want them too early in the shoe, because they will chase us away. Later in the shoe, and we can make some money. Or lose it...but that's a different story.:)
can make money in the beginning of the shoe as well. If enough high cards have come out early in the shoe to create a negative count worthy of departure, hopefully you have snagged your share of them. Play 3 hands and receive two twenties and a BJ, then depart at -1 true count is pretty sweet. 3.5 units for 3 hands won't hurt your average any. :)

I also must say that Callipygian's chart (above) about the frequency of counts bouncing back after reaching -1, surprises me. I would have thought it lower. However, bouncing back to a tc of +1 in no great accomplishment. tc +1 is little more than a break even game and you have to play through many losing hands of little cards coming out to get there. Wonging out and starting a new game is far better option assuming you are not limited by the number of games available.
 
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callipygian

Well-Known Member
#6
DonR said:
Well, if you see a bunch of high cards come out, that only means that there are more low cards in the rest of the shoe, but you don't really know where they are.
This is the difference between straight card counting and shuffle tracking. Straight card counting assumes that the unseen part of the shoe is homogeneous - that a RC of +5 with 5 decks remaining means there's an extra ten in each of the 5 decks. Unless you have information to the contrary, that's the way you should play it.

Of course, in reality, it's very unlikely that each of the 5 decks remaining have an extra ten. More likely than not, one of them will contain more than its fair share and one of them will contain less than its fair share. But you have no way to know which decks are which unless you're shuffle tracking.
 

DonR

Well-Known Member
#7
kewljason said:
Wonging out and starting a new game is far better option assuming you are not limited by the number of games available.
Sigh...that is the biggest problem. I do wong out, but there's usually nowhere else to go, other than take a washroom break. Waiting for the new shoe, hoping it'll be better.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#8
DonR said:
I do wong out, but there's usually nowhere else to go
Wonging may be worthless to you; you should sim this very carefully to make sure.

Wonging will increase your EV, but lower your hand/hr played. If you can make it to another table quickly, hands/hr drops by only a bit, and your win rate goes up. If hands/hr drops by a lot, your win rate actually goes down.

Wonging away from the table completely has its own risks - for example, if you Wong out too early or at a barely negative count, you risk missing the count recovering later in the shoe. However, if you Wong out too late or only at strongly negative counts (with low chances of recovery) then you don't gain much EV.

Wonging isn't for everyone - it's a strategy to be used in certain cases at certain times. Make sure that you're actually getting some benefit from it.
 

rollem411

Well-Known Member
#9
DonR said:
As we play the game, we hope that the count will start rising and eventually reach the levels where we can increase our bets. With high TC's, we anticipate getting good hands and making some money. So, we are basically waiting for a streak of high value cards.

But what if there is a streak of those high value cards at the beginning of the shoe? So, now the count just plummets down, and we are supposed to leave the table, because we don't want to play those negative counts. Since this scenario dictates leaving the table after only a hand or two played, aren't we potentially missing an opportunity to win some hands, riding this wave of high cards? Pretty much the same wave we are hoping for at those high counts.

Why is a streak of high cards bad for us early in the game, or at any other point, for that matter, and it is good for us only if it is preceded by a streak of low cards, creating those favorable high TC's? Even late in the shoe, especially with poor penetrations, there is no guarantee that the TC will not just keep on climbing, leaving all those "good" cards behind the cut card, never to be seen by us.

We hope to see a few hands with predominantly high cards, when the TC is high and we have our bigger bets out there, but the same few hands, rich in high cards, automatically chase us away, when they come at neutral counts.

When is the best time to leave, or to take a break, when we see such a streak of high cards? If we leave right away, as soon as the count reaches our Wong out setpoint, that is a pretty safe bet, but again, aren't we maybe missing an opportunity to win a few more hands? Would a better approach be waiting for the streak to stop (for example leaving only after a hand in which the running count finally started going up, after plummeting down for a few hands)? Or maybe playing until you lose a hand, or two, provided you've been winning those hands?

Personally, I leave (take a break), as soon as I reach the Wong out point, but I always had these thoughts of whether it is really the best thing to do.
If I win multiple hands in a row in negative counts I stick around until I lose at least one, maybe 2, then wong out.

As the saying goes, "I'd rather be lucky than good". Most poker pros I believe have said that.

Ride the win streak even though the percentages are against you until you lose one. I know it goes against the AP rules, but as long as you are winning I'd say it's ok.
 

callipygian

Well-Known Member
#10
rollem411 said:
I know it goes against the AP rules, but as long as you are winning I'd say it's ok.
Consider it cover. Most people don't end their session in the middle of a winning streak. I even got chastised once for asking for a color-up in the middle of a dealer bust streak. I probably should have stayed and just min bet but I didn't, so the guy next to me spread to two hands to keep the Sacred Flow unblemished.
 

DonR

Well-Known Member
#11
callipygian said:
Wonging may be worthless to you; you should sim this very carefully to make sure.

Wonging will increase your EV, but lower your hand/hr played. If you can make it to another table quickly, hands/hr drops by only a bit, and your win rate goes up. If hands/hr drops by a lot, your win rate actually goes down.

Wonging away from the table completely has its own risks - for example, if you Wong out too early or at a barely negative count, you risk missing the count recovering later in the shoe. However, if you Wong out too late or only at strongly negative counts (with low chances of recovery) then you don't gain much EV.

Wonging isn't for everyone - it's a strategy to be used in certain cases at certain times. Make sure that you're actually getting some benefit from it.
I Wong out at -2. But I stay at the same table, because there's usually no other tables available. Some casinos only have a few tables with hand shuffle, or ASM's, and even though the casinos are not as busy as before, BJ tables are always crowded. So, if the TC goes down after only a few hands, and I'm losing, I skip 2-3 hands, sometimes even more, saying how I am going to wait for things to change. If the TC does not recover after those few hands, it is time for a washroom break, and I wait for a new shoe, at the same table. Rarely, if there happens to be an empty seat at a different table, I'll go there.

In most cases, for me the only other alternative to Wonging out would be to play all, and I don't think that's a very good idea.

How can I properly simulate the above strategy? I assume I'm doing the right thing by trying not to play those negative counts.

rollem411 said:
If I win multiple hands in a row in negative counts I stick around until I lose at least one, maybe 2, then wong out.

As the saying goes, "I'd rather be lucky than good". Most poker pros I believe have said that.

Ride the win streak even though the percentages are against you until you lose one. I know it goes against the AP rules, but as long as you are winning I'd say it's ok.
That is what I usually do. If I'm winning while the count is going down, I wait for 1 or 2 losing hands, before I Wong out. I am under the impression that it is working better than Wonging out immediately, as soon as the TC reaches -2.
 
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