Shufflemaster model one-2-six. Silly question?

[newb99]

Silly question? Does the 1-2-6 bit of Shufflemaster's latest CSM model means it can take up to six decks of cards?

I played a few hands against one quite recently, and it was quite obvious that the 20 or so cards put back into the hopper at the end of each hand weren't immediately recycled - the next hand would be dealt out before the silly thing started whirring and clicking away.

Bearing this in mind, I' assuming that remembering the "mini-count" from the last hand it would be possible to reduce the HE? In theory, with a full table, you could end up with a RC of +15 (ENHC rules) before any additional cards are played, and so sitting at third base it would be possible to apply all playing indices up to TC+4 or so - the play adjustments benefits could be there, but the benefits of uping the bet would only be there in the odd instances where a doubling or splitting index was applicable. The biggest advantages of standing 16v10 and taking insurance at TC+3 could be used at times.

Perhaps a voodoo consideration, but where a round finished at say TC+3, would doubling the bet for the next hand be silly, on the assumption that all of those low cards won't immediately put an appearance in? If there is a good chance that they won't, then spreading the bet upwards will also go someway to chipping away at the HE?

Before you reach for your armalites, I'm not advocating that all of this stuff will eliminate the HE when playing CSMs, just that it will reduce it down to a minimum possible.

Newb99

[HarryKuntz]

This machine can be used with 1-6 decks, hence the name. You would need to check with the casino in question to find out how many decks they are actually using.

Unless this is a SD or DD game (unlikely - properly 4-6 decks in ENHC), the TC's you talk about would be very rare with such bad pen. Even if it is a SD game, 20 cards is still only 38% pen and although you might be able to decrease the HE or even get a small advantage, you would need a mammoth spread with high var and high ROR.

Quite simply, it's just not worth the bother, find yourself a better game instead.

[newb99]

You're quite right. This would be strictly for table mins (perhaps x 2) and entertainment only. For doubling a wager at TC+2 I think the opportunity will only come up around 10% of the time (TC+3 less than 5%).

I'm under no illusions that it's a non-starter from an AP perspective, but if out socially it'll add a little something to the game. There's nothing more boring that playing BS with flat bets (even when sharing a table with friends).

Cheers.

[HarryKuntz]

Originally Posted by newb99

You're quite right. This would be strictly for table mins (perhaps x 2) and entertainment only. For doubling a wager at TC+2 I think the opportunity will only come up around 10% of the time (TC+3 less than 5%).

I'm under no illusions that it's a non-starter from an AP perspective, but if out socially it'll add a little something to the game. There's nothing more boring that playing BS with flat bets (even when sharing a table with friends).

Cheers.

Well as long as your under no delusions about this and only playing for fun.

Just for a laugh and because i'm very bored at work, here is a 10mil hand sim of the average UK CSM game. - 6D, DOA, DAS, NOS, NO Ins, NS, 20 card pen, £5-£500 table limits. Played with BS+I18 (splitting 10's ignored). £50k BR (100Xtable max)

Notice that the highest the TC ever got was +2 and the lowest -3 (TC's are floored by the way). and see how few times this occured. Also notice even with a 100 unit spread, it still gives a 100% ROR.

Enjoy:-



PowerSim Simulation File: CSM.sim

Decks: 6
Cards: 312
Players: 4
Shuffle Point: 20
Maximum Rounds per shoe (32767 = infinity): 32767
Burn Cards: 0
Maximum Dealer Rounds (0 = infinity): 0
Holecard(1) or Upcard(0) last: 1
European No Hole Card: 1
Maximum Split Hands: 24
Double After Splits: 1
Resplit Aces: 0
Extra Hits on Split Aces: 0
Double on hard 10 or 11 only: 0
Double on split aces: 0
Dealer hits soft 17: 0
Late Surrender: 0
Pick up hands from Last(1) to first(0): 1
Display hands: 0
Display shoes: 0
Strategy File: UK DOA.str

Player 1 using basic: 0
Player 2 using basic: 0
Player 3 using basic: 0
Player 4 using basic: 0

Tag for 1: -1
Tag for 2: 1
Tag for 3: 1
Tag for 4: 1
Tag for 5: 1
Tag for 6: 1
Tag for 7: 0
Tag for 8: 0
Tag for 9: 0
Tag for 10: -1

************************************************** **********

.BIN file: CSM.bin seed: 1303139430

Round 10000000 was completed at: 11/12/2008 16:37:45
A maximum of 52 cards were dealt from the shoe.
Stats from CSM.bin:

Player 1
True Count: Frequency: Win Rate: Variance:
-3: 17 -.0588236 1.114187
-2: 186875 -.013188 1.302557
-1: 2058677 -.0069379 1.292377
0: 7535060 -.004954 1.289953
1: 218243 -.0024835 1.281453
2: 1128 .0115248 1.231694
Player 2
True Count: Frequency: Win Rate: Variance:
-3: 17 -.352941 1.757785
-2: 186875 -.0089017 1.301616
-1: 2058677 -.0062156 1.293104
0: 7535060 -.0052499 1.288671
1: 218243 -.0051823 1.280624
2: 1128 .0394503 1.316928
Player 3
True Count: Frequency: Win Rate: Variance:
-3: 17 -.147059 1.16955
-2: 186875 -.0084308 1.302304
-1: 2058677 -.0056869 1.292488
0: 7535060 -.0050904 1.29005
1: 218243 -.001118 1.282904
2: 1128 5.81251e-9 1.326241
Player 4
True Count: Frequency: Win Rate: Variance:
-3: 17 -.205882 .854671
-2: 186875 -.0088 1.296365
-1: 2058677 -.0071422 1.292928
0: 7535060 -.0044162 1.28908
1: 218243 .0031089 1.280477
2: 1128 -.0226064 1.280739

================================================== ==========

Bet Ramps from: CSM.bin

Player # 1: -20: 10 -19: 10 -18: 10 -17: 10 -16: 10 -15: 10 -14: 10 -13: 10 -12: 10 -11: 10 -10: 10 -9: 10 -8: 10 -7: 10 -6: 10 -5: 10 -4: 10 -3: 10 -2: 10 -1: 10 0: 10 1: 10 2: 10 3: 10 4: 10 5: 10 6: 10 7: 10 8: 10 9: 10 10: 10 11: 10 12: 10 13: 10 14: 10 15: 10 16: 10 17: 10 18: 10 19: 10 20: 10
Player # 2: -20: 5 -19: 5 -18: 5 -17: 5 -16: 5 -15: 5 -14: 5 -13: 5 -12: 5 -11: 5 -10: 5 -9: 5 -8: 5 -7: 5 -6: 5 -5: 5 -4: 5 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 20 2: 100 3: 200 4: 300 5: 400 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
Player # 3: -20: 5 -19: 5 -18: 5 -17: 5 -16: 5 -15: 5 -14: 5 -13: 5 -12: 5 -11: 5 -10: 5 -9: 5 -8: 5 -7: 5 -6: 5 -5: 5 -4: 5 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 20 2: 100 3: 200 4: 300 5: 400 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
Player # 4: -20: 5 -19: 5 -18: 5 -17: 5 -16: 5 -15: 5 -14: 5 -13: 5 -12: 5 -11: 5 -10: 5 -9: 5 -8: 5 -7: 5 -6: 5 -5: 5 -4: 5 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 20 2: 100 3: 200 4: 300 5: 400 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500

10000000 rounds Bankroll = 50000
1: $-.0546061/$10 =-.546061% var = 129.05 ROR = 100%!!
2: $-.028829/$5.33808 =-.540063% var = 44.2058 ROR = 100%!!
3: $-.0263091/$5.33808 =-.492857% var = 44.2574 ROR = 100%!!
4: $-.0237118/$5.33808 =-.444202% var = 44.1669 ROR = 100%!!

------------------------------------------------------------

Bet Ramps from: CSM.bin

Player # 1: -20: 10 -19: 10 -18: 10 -17: 10 -16: 10 -15: 10 -14: 10 -13: 10 -12: 10 -11: 10 -10: 10 -9: 10 -8: 10 -7: 10 -6: 10 -5: 10 -4: 10 -3: 10 -2: 10 -1: 10 0: 10 1: 10 2: 10 3: 10 4: 10 5: 10 6: 10 7: 10 8: 10 9: 10 10: 10 11: 10 12: 10 13: 10 14: 10 15: 10 16: 10 17: 10 18: 10 19: 10 20: 10
Player # 2: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 5 2: 500 3: 500 4: 500 5: 500 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
Player # 3: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 5 2: 500 3: 500 4: 500 5: 500 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
Player # 4: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 5 2: 500 3: 500 4: 500 5: 500 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500

10000000 rounds Bankroll = 50000
1: $-.0546061/$10 =-.546061% var = 129.05 ROR = 100%!!
2: $-.0253525/$5.05584 =-.50145% var = 69.419 ROR = 100%!!
3: $-.0259431/$5.05584 =-.513132% var = 69.662 ROR = 100%!!
4: $-.0257496/$5.05584 =-.509304% var = 68.3731 ROR = 100%!!

------------------------------------------------------------

[newb99]

Ta muchly for that. Quite revealing, but not surprising, really. It does highlight what anyone who has done some sums has fathomed out - that as a long term strategy CSMs are a waste of time and money. I'm surprised that in 10 million hands TC+3 never appeared once in the results, although I suspect that some of the +2s are nearer to 3 than 2.

One reason why I asked whether it should go in the Voodoo part of the board. If one limited oneself to buying in 15 units, and played until all gone, up 5 units or an hour / 70 hands had been played, I wonder what the results would be? With such a tiny sample, there must be a percentage of such sessions that would hit the 33% win target? I achieved a 30% win in just 18 hands or so against a CSM last Saturday (started with 10 chips, walked away when I was holding 13 - and that was just flat betting and playing BS). What led me to raise the query was that in one round 15 cards were dealt and there wasn't a single picture, ten or ace amongst them - wasn't keeping the count, but I suspect the RC would have been around +10-12. Doubled my 8-3and pulled a picture. Could do with that happening more often!

Regards.

Newb99

[HarryKuntz]

Originally Posted by newb99

Ta muchly for that. Quite revealing, but not surprising, really. It does highlight what anyone who has done some sums has fathomed out - that as a long term strategy CSMs are a waste of time and money. I'm surprised that in 10 million hands TC+3 never appeared once in the results, although I suspect that some of the +2s are nearer to 3 than 2.

Thats no problem, your right, there will be +2's which are actually 2.5 or above and there will also be -3's with are acutally -2.5 or above as all TC's are floored.

Originally Posted by newb99

One reason why I asked whether it should go in the Voodoo part of the board. If one limited oneself to buying in 15 units, and played until all gone, up 5 units or an hour / 70 hands had been played, I wonder what the results would be? With such a tiny sample, there must be a percentage of such sessions that would hit the 33% win target? I achieved a 30% win in just 18 hands or so against a CSM last Saturday (started with 10 chips, walked away when I was holding 13 - and that was just flat betting and playing BS). What led me to raise the query was that in one round 15 cards were dealt and there wasn't a single picture, ten or ace amongst them - wasn't keeping the count, but I suspect the RC would have been around +10-12. Doubled my 8-3and pulled a picture. Could do with that happening more often!

Regards.

Newb99

With such a tiny sample anything could happen - the reason why blackjack is popular is because anyone can make a profit on the night. The sad fact is that its only variance and unless your an AP or a cheat the house always win in the end.

[SystemsTrader]

Originally Posted by HarryKuntz

This machine can be used with 1-6 decks, hence the name. You would need to check with the casino in question to find out how many decks they are actually using.

Look closely at the OnetoSix machines they actually have a little digital screen which states the number of decks being shuffled.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by HarryKuntz

Thats no problem, your right, there will be +2's which are actually 2.5 or above and there will also be -3's with are acutally -2.5 or above as all TC's are floored.



With such a tiny sample anything could happen - the reason why blackjack is popular is because anyone can make a profit on the night. The sad fact is that its only variance and unless your an AP or a cheat the house always win in the end.

Not that it matters but if the guy was assuming 20 cards go back in but can't be played the next round, shouldn't the shuffle point maybe be 40?

Was that split thing allowing up to 24 splits? Is that why 52 cards could be dealt in one round to 5 people - if that is what that meant?

No big deal lol.

[newb99]

What would be useful for comparison purposes would be to run say 100 x 70 hand sims (1 hour of play?) for a CSM game based on the following:

Betting Unit = £/$ 5.00
Ramp: TC+2 = 2 units
TC+2.5 = 3 units
TC +3 = 4 units

For the UK game I play I reckon that zero HE occurs at around TC+1.5.

Indices:
TC-3: 13v3 hit, A3v5 hit, 10v9 hit,
TC-2: 12v5 hit, 9v3 hit, 13v2 hit,
TC-1: 12v6 hit, A4v4 hit, A2v5 hit,
TC=0: 16v10 stand, 12v4 hit,
TC+1: 9v2 double, A7vA stand,
TC+2: 8v6 double, A7v7 double, 12v3 stand
TC+2.5: 16vA stand, 12v2 stand, 9v7 double, 77v8 spl, 99v7 spl,
no insurance

These are a selection of the ones I play. Before I'm burnt at the stake, do remember this is for the ENHC-UK game, so doubling against 10s etc are off the menu. Also the TC+2.5 indices are ones I normally play at +3, so playing them a bit prematurely will have a cost.

It'd be interesting to see the %age of winning sessions, and how the above chips away at the OTT HE overall, albeit it's still a losing game.

Newb99

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by newb99

If one limited oneself to buying in 15 units, and played until all gone, up 5 units or an hour / 70 hands had been played, I wonder what the results would be? With such a tiny sample, there must be a percentage of such sessions that would hit the 33% win target? I

I'm sure there is - maybe you could use some ROR calculator?


Say you're buying in with $75 at a $5 table and want to win $25. Maybe better might be to buy in with $300 and quit when you are 1 $25 unit ahead. You probably will be 80% of the time in less than 15 hands. Maybe 90% of the time if you play 50 hands. Not sure about being unable to double near the end lol.

Whatever - have your own kind of fun! Work your black magic lol.