newb99 said:
You're quite right. This would be strictly for table mins (perhaps x 2) and entertainment only. For doubling a wager at TC+2 I think the opportunity will only come up around 10% of the time (TC+3 less than 5%).
I'm under no illusions that it's a non-starter from an AP perspective, but if out socially it'll add a little something to the game. There's nothing more boring that playing BS with flat bets (even when sharing a table with friends).
Cheers.
Well as long as your under no delusions about this and only playing for fun.
Just for a laugh and because i'm very bored at work, here is a 10mil hand sim of the average UK CSM game. - 6D, DOA, DAS, NOS, NO Ins, NS, 20 card pen, £5-£500 table limits. Played with BS+I18 (splitting 10's ignored). £50k BR (100Xtable max)
Notice that the highest the TC ever got was +2 and the lowest -3 (TC's are floored by the way). and see how few times this occured. Also notice even with a 100 unit spread, it still gives a 100% ROR.
Enjoy:-
PowerSim Simulation File: CSM.sim
Decks: 6
Cards: 312
Players: 4
Shuffle Point: 20
Maximum Rounds per shoe (32767 = infinity): 32767
Burn Cards: 0
Maximum Dealer Rounds (0 = infinity): 0
Holecard(1) or Upcard(0) last: 1
European No Hole Card: 1
Maximum Split Hands: 24
Double After Splits: 1
Resplit Aces: 0
Extra Hits on Split Aces: 0
Double on hard 10 or 11 only: 0
Double on split aces: 0
Dealer hits soft 17: 0
Late Surrender: 0
Pick up hands from Last(1) to first(0): 1
Display hands: 0
Display shoes: 0
Strategy File: UK DOA.str
Player 1 using basic: 0
Player 2 using basic: 0
Player 3 using basic: 0
Player 4 using basic: 0
Tag for 1: -1
Tag for 2: 1
Tag for 3: 1
Tag for 4: 1
Tag for 5: 1
Tag for 6: 1
Tag for 7: 0
Tag for 8: 0
Tag for 9: 0
Tag for 10: -1
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.BIN file: CSM.bin seed: 1303139430
Round 10000000 was completed at: 11/12/2008 16:37:45
A maximum of 52 cards were dealt from the shoe.
Stats from CSM.bin:
Player 1
True Count: Frequency: Win Rate: Variance:
-3: 17 -.0588236 1.114187
-2: 186875 -.013188 1.302557
-1: 2058677 -.0069379 1.292377
0: 7535060 -.004954 1.289953
1: 218243 -.0024835 1.281453
2: 1128 .0115248 1.231694
Player 2
True Count: Frequency: Win Rate: Variance:
-3: 17 -.352941 1.757785
-2: 186875 -.0089017 1.301616
-1: 2058677 -.0062156 1.293104
0: 7535060 -.0052499 1.288671
1: 218243 -.0051823 1.280624
2: 1128 .0394503 1.316928
Player 3
True Count: Frequency: Win Rate: Variance:
-3: 17 -.147059 1.16955
-2: 186875 -.0084308 1.302304
-1: 2058677 -.0056869 1.292488
0: 7535060 -.0050904 1.29005
1: 218243 -.001118 1.282904
2: 1128 5.81251e-9 1.326241
Player 4
True Count: Frequency: Win Rate: Variance:
-3: 17 -.205882 .854671
-2: 186875 -.0088 1.296365
-1: 2058677 -.0071422 1.292928
0: 7535060 -.0044162 1.28908
1: 218243 .0031089 1.280477
2: 1128 -.0226064 1.280739
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Bet Ramps from: CSM.bin
Player # 1: -20: 10 -19: 10 -18: 10 -17: 10 -16: 10 -15: 10 -14: 10 -13: 10 -12: 10 -11: 10 -10: 10 -9: 10 -8: 10 -7: 10 -6: 10 -5: 10 -4: 10 -3: 10 -2: 10 -1: 10 0: 10 1: 10 2: 10 3: 10 4: 10 5: 10 6: 10 7: 10 8: 10 9: 10 10: 10 11: 10 12: 10 13: 10 14: 10 15: 10 16: 10 17: 10 18: 10 19: 10 20: 10
Player # 2: -20: 5 -19: 5 -18: 5 -17: 5 -16: 5 -15: 5 -14: 5 -13: 5 -12: 5 -11: 5 -10: 5 -9: 5 -8: 5 -7: 5 -6: 5 -5: 5 -4: 5 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 20 2: 100 3: 200 4: 300 5: 400 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
Player # 3: -20: 5 -19: 5 -18: 5 -17: 5 -16: 5 -15: 5 -14: 5 -13: 5 -12: 5 -11: 5 -10: 5 -9: 5 -8: 5 -7: 5 -6: 5 -5: 5 -4: 5 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 20 2: 100 3: 200 4: 300 5: 400 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
Player # 4: -20: 5 -19: 5 -18: 5 -17: 5 -16: 5 -15: 5 -14: 5 -13: 5 -12: 5 -11: 5 -10: 5 -9: 5 -8: 5 -7: 5 -6: 5 -5: 5 -4: 5 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 20 2: 100 3: 200 4: 300 5: 400 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
10000000 rounds Bankroll = 50000
1: $-.0546061/$10 =-.546061% var = 129.05 ROR = 100%!!
2: $-.028829/$5.33808 =-.540063% var = 44.2058 ROR = 100%!!
3: $-.0263091/$5.33808 =-.492857% var = 44.2574 ROR = 100%!!
4: $-.0237118/$5.33808 =-.444202% var = 44.1669 ROR = 100%!!
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Bet Ramps from: CSM.bin
Player # 1: -20: 10 -19: 10 -18: 10 -17: 10 -16: 10 -15: 10 -14: 10 -13: 10 -12: 10 -11: 10 -10: 10 -9: 10 -8: 10 -7: 10 -6: 10 -5: 10 -4: 10 -3: 10 -2: 10 -1: 10 0: 10 1: 10 2: 10 3: 10 4: 10 5: 10 6: 10 7: 10 8: 10 9: 10 10: 10 11: 10 12: 10 13: 10 14: 10 15: 10 16: 10 17: 10 18: 10 19: 10 20: 10
Player # 2: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 5 2: 500 3: 500 4: 500 5: 500 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
Player # 3: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 5 2: 500 3: 500 4: 500 5: 500 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
Player # 4: -20: 0 -19: 0 -18: 0 -17: 0 -16: 0 -15: 0 -14: 0 -13: 0 -12: 0 -11: 0 -10: 0 -9: 0 -8: 0 -7: 0 -6: 0 -5: 0 -4: 0 -3: 5 -2: 5 -1: 5 0: 5 1: 5 2: 500 3: 500 4: 500 5: 500 6: 500 7: 500 8: 500 9: 500 10: 500 11: 500 12: 500 13: 500 14: 500 15: 500 16: 500 17: 500 18: 500 19: 500 20: 500
10000000 rounds Bankroll = 50000
1: $-.0546061/$10 =-.546061% var = 129.05 ROR = 100%!!
2: $-.0253525/$5.05584 =-.50145% var = 69.419 ROR = 100%!!
3: $-.0259431/$5.05584 =-.513132% var = 69.662 ROR = 100%!!
4: $-.0257496/$5.05584 =-.509304% var = 68.3731 ROR = 100%!!
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