increasing max bet?

First of all, I apoligize to those of you who read multiple boards. I posted this question on another board as well as I really would like as much imput from people at this level as possible.

Sometime in the next few months my bankroll with have grown to the point that I feel comfotable increasing my Max bet. I currently play a $25 unit, spreading 1-12 to a max bet of $300 (or 2 hands of $200 if poss), but for the purposes of this thread let's concentrate on a single hand max bet. I want to increase the max bet to $500. Here are the two senarios I am considering:

1.) continue playing $25 unit, but increasing spread to 1-20, max bet $500.

2.) play a $50 unit, spreading 1-10, max bet $500.

Of course I know that senario #1, will produce better results with less variance. I am more concerned with heat and attention that will be drawn..

I currently play 1200+ hours per year and a $25-$300 spread is small potatoes at most places I play on the strip and in AC. I can play short sessions and my play barely hits the radar screens. This is the aspect I am most concerned with and want to keep constant. So my questions are:

Will a 1-20 spread (senario 1) with a $25 unit draw considerably more heat that my current 1-12 spread?? And what about a $50-$500 spread? While that is only a 1-10 spread, how much less tolerated is a $500 max bet compared to a $300 max bet? A few of the places I play actually have a table max of $500, so playing a top bet of $500 would mean the dealer calling out "max bet" which can't be a good thing.

Again, I would greatly appreciate any input, thoughts and experiences especially from people who play regularly at this level.

Just wanted to add, that anyone not comfortable, posting their thoughts or input on the board, please do so via private message. I greatly appreciate your input. Thanx

This is just off the top of the head so someone may want to sim this but why not just go $25 to $400 so you have a 1-16 spread and also avoiding the table max? Seems like it could be a decent compromise between the two and cutting out a lot of the negatives.

A 1:20 spread will get you VERY noticed in AC. As a matter of fact, any $500 bet will get you very noticed in AC.

Several years ago, after my BR increased sufficiently, I started playing a $50 unit. I dropped back to $25 unit because it was so much easier to play a $25 unit at the places I liked palying (in AC). There were exceptions, which included occasional play of $100 unit in a HL pit mid Boardwalk (the only BJ I would play at this place, as their games otherwise sucked) and the same held true for a place at the north end of the BW, owned by the same company. Your motivations are significantly different than mine, as I don't do this as my primary source of income.

The only time I spread significantly more than 1-10 or 1-12 was playing a BJ variant that rarely gets any close observation (unless your name is Flash). It may behoove you to learn the game, though it's unplayable in LV due to the H17 no redouble rule.

Yeah, my initial thought is that your max bet would be a much larger problem than your spread. If need be, you could vary your bet arbitrarily between $25-50 during neutral and slightly negative counts, making sure to have $50 bets out when the boss is watching, but a $500 bet—especially a $500 table max—is going to guarantee scrutiny, and you can expect problems whether you're spreading 1-10 or 1-20. I'm definitely not experienced in this area, but I would avoid hitting the max if possible ($450 bets?) and go with the larger spread, with some well-placed opposition betting. I wonder what someone more qualified to comment on this thinks about this strategy?

Kewl,
Why do I get the feeling you posted a similar post like a year ago Someone must be doing quite well. If you're in AC, I'd say stay at the $25 table which has a $1000 max. Since you're moving to Vegas, you can probably milk it for a while, but it might not be a bad idea to occasionally utilize some camouflage.

Thinking about $500 as your max? You must have had a great year! Congratulations, Kewljason! Soon even BillytheBJkid will consider you a pro!

Greed Criteria?

One can also delay raising their bets until they have a very low ror or very low risk of a major drawdown.

You answered your own question, $500 max bets will draw alllll the attention!:joker::whip:

I hope I don't sound arrogant, psyduck, when I say I care not who considers me a pro or not. The label is not important to me. Playing the strongest game with the most knowledge that I can is important to me. That is why I try to take advantage of this great resource and seek the advice and opinions of those wiser and more experienced than myself. If billythekid and/or some of the other flash-in-the-pan newbies did likewise, they may stick around long enouth to actually learn something.

I doubt he was being serious, just a little crack over the humorous episode between you guys :laugh:

You never sound arrogant to me. The fact that you have been supporting yourself playing BJ especially some 8-deck games says a lot about your skills. I am in a different situation. I have a full time job in a research lab and can only play a few hours each weekend. My bet is much smaller than yours. You may consider trying some $500 bets just to test how much heat you will get. I think for you longevity is very important.

Good luck with your new max!

$0.02

i might not know what you mean by unit. i only have experience with kelly-based units where 1 unit equals your bet per 0.5% advantage. if that's the kind of unit we're thinking of, you obviously get the most money betting $50 units but with the teeniest practicable base bet. $25 base, $50 unit, max varying by situation, is how i would do this, but a max of $500 ideally.

another poster suggested the difference between $300 max and $500 max will matter in a.c. i think this is right. there were in my heyday (this info is 5 years old - i haven't placed a bet in a casino since 2005) a.c. dumps that had a flat policy of ignoring anyone maxing out around $250 - $300, almost no matter how much his money moved. you'll be out of this safety zone. in a hit-and-run style it may not matter so much, depending on how cautious you wish to be in terms of heat.

another poster said the max matters more than the precise spread. i think this is right too.

avoiding shouts of "table max!" sounds reasonable when $450ish is almost as nice as $500. but it is worth bearing in mind these bets will be really infrequent, and your read of the situation when it actually comes up may cause you to improvise upward.

in the bigger vegas dumps i would tend to go all the way, again depending on the particular scene going down at the moment in question.

Try to blend in...

I think if I were you I would probably try to change my play based on who I was playing with. Say there were 1 or 2 other people at your table playing 500 dollars a spot, then maybe this wouldn't look so bad? Where as if everyone is only playin 10 bux a spot, maybe your 500 isn't gonna go unnoticed. Also, the part where you say consider only 1 hand being played, why not just always aim for 2 hands? This way, you are still below the critical 500 dollar level, but at the same time playing with all the perks of 2 hands. Then for the times when you only can play 1 hand, then play a 450-475 max bet, whatever you think you can get away with. Either way, I think I would only play a 25 min, because I don't think the difference between 25 and 50 min makes a difference at all.

Kewljason

What is your ror?:joker::whip: resizing policy?

I play with a very small RoR and would definately resize if I lost a major portion of my BR as my BR is nor replenishable. For the purposes of this thread, I am more interested in the heat/attention aspect of increasing max bet, not the RoR aspect. RoR and expected return are easy enough answer through simulation software. Questions about heat, can only be answered through experience, which is why I am asking for other player's to share their experiences and opinions.

Assuming you are Wonging in or out, the earnings aspect of playing a larger min bet aren't that big a deal. As 21forme stated, the $500 threshold triggers a lot of pits, and it is also a table max in many pits. So you might be better off keeping it at $400 and ramping up quicker to increase your win rate. This violates the rule of Kelly-proportional betting, but really every realistic spread does. A quicker ramp-up is pretty effective in 8D games too.

Well Kewljason I will tell you my max bet decisions are situational. Don't get me wrong, I still play with a minimal risk such as yourself as I do not play with a replenishable bankroll either. Before I hit a game I will have different plans simulated that offer optimal or close to optimal risk and EV. There is no guessing here. But when hitting the table its the surroundings that will determine what plan gets implemented. For example if you play in AC and wong continuously and are on the move, if you are sure your risk is acceptable to you in accordance with bankroll, raise your max and go for it. If you are in a position where you are the biggest player at the table and you are not moving as much, play at your lowest acceptable max. In Vegas I have played the same casino at different times with very different max bets. Its very easy at your betting level to find camo through other players with similar to larger bets. I do not believe in cover plays per say, my cover comes through moving, short sessions, and blending in with other like or bigger players.

Its easy to simulate your game to make sure you are not overbetting your bankroll at an uncomfortable risk. It takes a little more in the way of practical awareness to put your decision into action. I will tell you this New Years in Vegas is a free for all, and so is Super Bowl weekend. On these days you can play to whatever max and how many hands your bankroll can handle. The money and characters at the tables during these times is some of the best cover you will find. Basically my advice to you is use common sense, and good judgement. Actual playing strategy, hand, and betting decisions, should always be predetermined before you hit the floor. Which one you use of these can always be a gametime decision. Also if you are playing primarily in AC and Vegas, there should be no games you play with a $500 max bet limit. There are way to many other games you can afford that offer up better playing scenarios.

Reward VS Heat, CE of Heat

Perhaps the title explains why I ask.:joker::whip:
When you say you play with a very low ror, this tells me very little. Is your ror based on frequent resizing on downswings or a low fixed ror?

If you have very few $500 bets to lose before you have to resize down then why be in such a hurry?

How does this scenario sound:
bet up
lose a large portion of what you worked so hard to earn
draw all the additional heat; which you will, with certainty.:joker::whip: Also, the potential problems associated with heat and then have to lower your bets.

Most of the posters on all sites are telling you basically to go forward in one form or another. I am trying to see if your bankroll is ready for the risk of a major drawdown and the heat involved.

I bet many who have experience would tell someone in your situation not to raise their bets if they were betting full kelly. The opposite may be true if betting 1/20 kelly.

Basic investment strategy is to be more conservative with larger sums of money and when you consider the added risk of heat then perhaps one should be even more risk averse?:joker::whip:

Non replenishable bank?
You are trying to survive for the long hall?
I would not advise drawing the additional heat of $500 bets until you were at 1/4 kelly optimal resizing. Once you get to 1/4th resize your bets to something easy to implement between 1/3 to 1/4 kelly optimal then repeat as you reach 1/4th kelly optimal. I would advise resize down frequently on losses. With this strategy you will hold onto your winnings, protect the bank and only taking on the heat of the larger bets when your CE is very strong.

good cards

I would advise against placing bets that equate to the table maximum. Placing $500 bets where the max is $2,000+ is more acceptable. It also seems that although a table may be designated as technically having say a $1,000 max bet, it is in effect disregarded by the pit who would view a max bet as a threat/warning sign. So I would suggest ensuring that your $500 max bet is WELL below the table max.

Spreading from $25 to $500 is going to look like a very wide spread, but $50 to $500 isn't really a lot different. So in that case you may as well go all the way with the 25-500 spread.

I certainly would expect a 25-500 (or a 50-500) spread to be viewed with more heat than a 25-300 spread. As you put more money on the table, you will be regarded as a bigger and bigger threat and you may push the pits outside their comfort zones. Each casino/pit team will have different comfort threshholds and you need to ascertain what they are.

Personally I would ALWAYS go for the 2-hand approach rather than a single max bet - in my experience a single bet looks worse to the pit than two smaller bets (even though jointly there is more money on the table) - plus the obvious EV & SD implications (as you know!).

On the upside betting higher bets will also get more respect and you may find that you can get your own table, request shuffles in the middle of the shoes allowing you to get rid off negative shoes, and all other sorts of benefits.

The other suggestion I would make is to progress to your new max bet in increments (300 to 350 to 400 to 450 etc), not from one day to the next, so that you can get comfortable with the increased hourly and daily swings.

If your bet levels are matched by some other players around you then this is a big plus. If you are the biggest player in the place then you will be watched with more scrutiny - but you will also be treated a bit like a king!

In your situation the longetivity is more important so sacrifcing some EV by having a tighter spread might be worth the sacrifice.

I wish to thank everyone who offered advice and shared their opinion on this matter either through this thread or by PM. A couple people in particular pointed out aspects that I hadn't considered. As I have many times in the past, I have benifited from your knowledge and experience and I am grateful for that. Sharing of experiences and learning from each other is the true beauty of this site and again I express my gratitude for those willing to do so.

heat and longevity

I only play about 150 hours per yr in Vegas, with a spread very similar to yours. And it's amazing how familiar the dealers/pit bosses have become and how familiar I am to them. I mostly stick to the carpet joints with playable games. Only one back off and some heat at the volcano, but otherwise ok as far as I know. I believe I have an effective act, but I think they'll bounce me in a few places before too much longer.

Since you are living there now and wish to stay, you will want to survive the inevitable point at which you become a very familiar face. Even though you apparently play short sessions, stay on the move, and venture away from the strip, I think this day of "familiarity" at the best places is looming for you in the next year or so.

So, staying a bit conservative in pushing your max bet up might be in order, in the interest of longevity.

And maybe you should consider a partner. Lots of ways to get more money on the table with flexible and varying playing/betting patterns. And with a partner, you blend in better in a "party" mode. I did this for a while and stopped due to the cost, but it worked fairly well. The partner expense along with some serious air/taxi expense were eating me up. I walk a lot, but also spend some on taxis to maximize time at the tables for my short visits. You have an advantage in expense management in that you have no travel cost.

Also, as you become a familiar player, you may have to consider mixing in some slots/roulette/craps at low stakes to show the staff and the computer you are just another gambler. Some loud and attention-getting time (admittedly and amusingly out of proportion to what you are betting) at the craps or roulette tables might alter your potential "lone counter" image. It will cost you some $, but can be a form of cover/investment in the interest of longevity, I think. Others do not agree and I understand it is a dicey strategy - if you get evaluated at BJ with a tape replay to verfiy that you are spreading with the count, all that craps/roulette will not matter.

Good luck