Doubling Bet everytime you lose...??

R

Rip

New Member
#1
#1
Hey everyone...its my first post.

I've gotten into BlackJack heavily the past few weeks and have prety much gotten down the basic strategy to a tee.

I'm not concerned wit counting cards....but wit betting. I came across this strategy, and I want to know what everyone thinks.

The basic strategy is....when you win...keep wit your original bet (lets say $5), but when you lose, you bet double your last bet (which would be $10 then $20 then $40) and what that does is recoupe your loses.

Example:

Lets say I start off at a $5 table and my original bet is gonna be $5. I win the first 3 hands following basic stratgy so I'm up $15. So I bet $5 on hand 4 and lose. So I bet $10 on hand 5....and I lose again. So then I bet $20 on hand 6 and lose. Then bet $40 on hand 7 and win. That will bring me back up to my $15 originally....si then I start bettin $5 again every hand til I lose. Its slow but progressive.

What does everyone think?

I've tried it at home quite a few times, and seems to work well...but I haven't tried it in a real Casino yet and it would require a pretty decent bank roll.

Please let me know what you guys think of this strategy and what's the possibilites of the most hands u can lose in a row when following basic strategy...??

Thanks
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#2
#2
Careful

Only one word...."Martingale". That is the classic negative progression. It'll kill you and it won't take you long in a casino to find that out. If you have access to a simulator, try running 50,000 hands through using $5 as your betting unit. It is not at all unusual for a dealer to win 11 or more hands in a row. Do the math! In short order, you are #1, going to run out of money or #2, exceed the betting maximum of the table you are at! In that eleven-hand example, you would be required to put out $5120 to cover that one hand's bet. I've seen table maximums on a $5 table of $2000 so even if you had the cash to throw away, the house wouldn't let you. But if they did, what would you stand to win on that one $5,120 wager? $5. That's it. $5.

But, how much would you have put out on the table to get thru to that 11th hand even if you could bet that much? How about $10,235? For a potential $5 net profit....I doubt that Trump would invest in that possibility <LOL>

Okay, say you set a limit of 4 loses in a row. That happens all the time. Very frequent occurance if you look at playing for several hours. Each time you loose 4 hands in a row, you start back at your $5 beginning. 4 in a row would amount to a $75 loss. When you win, you win only $5. You are going to have to win 15 more hands than the dealer just to break even on one dealer's 4 hand winning spree!
 
BJStanko

BJStanko

Well-Known Member
#3
#3
It doesn't work

Betting systems won't create an edge for you. Which means you will lose money in long run. They don't work. Don't waste your time on it.
 
G

gatorjuice

New Member
#4
#4
increase bets when you're ahead

I think a better strategy is to increase your bets when you're ahead. Say you start with $200 and you're betting $10 a hand. If you get up to, say, $300, increase bets to $15. If you get up to $400, increase to $20. If you slip down to $300, pull back down to $15 and if you slip to your original stake, bet your original bet.
 
S

Scorcho

Active Member
#5
#5
I agree, but....

BJStanko said:
Betting systems won't create an edge for you. Which means you will lose money in long run. They don't work. Don't waste your time on it.
Click to expand...

this is a betting system forum. The people who are more educated in BlackJack know that betting systems don't work, so I propose that we either:

A: Close this forum down so as to not mis-lead players who aren't as well educated.

B: Change this to a tournament betting strategies forum, which doesn't make sense since there's a whole other board dedicated to tourney play.

C: Let the casual gamblers discuss their strategies, as they may not be as interesed in long term investments.

I usually stay out of this forum because I card count, so betting strategies are irrelivant to me, but I think there's something to be said when every single post has the same disclaimer. Maybe we should just sticky such a warning at the top of this thread?
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#6
#6
Scorcho......I have no problem in discussing "betting strategies." They can add interest and excitement even if they do nothing to improve your chances of winning. But I do hate to see someone who posts something on a very negatively proven strategy who also states that they are "into BJ in the past few weeks" implying that they are not an experienced player, thinking it might be the "golden goose."

These questions show that those posting them are very interested in the game and are theorizing, taking it seriously! I see no reason at all to discourage them.

However, there are other better strategies that, while they will not improve any expectation over flat betting, can expose the player to much less risk than Martingale's negative progression.

Take the classic 2,1,2,3,3,4,5 progression. It is conservative, gets the player into some much larger bets than flat betting the minimum and doesn't expose the player to huge risk of ruin.

I do believe that when discussing strategies, it should be informational. If it's a bad bet, then we should explain "why" we think it is a bad bet. In the end, it is the player's money, but if equipped with some knowledge backed up by logical examples and mathematical proof coupled with first hand experiences, then I see no reason at all to refrain shedding what we think is light on what might be misconceptions. The bottom line is that the final choice in betting strategy, lies with he who is putting money on the table.
 
S

Scorcho

Active Member
#7
#7
the post wasn't directed at you, Mike, as you accuratly described the reason that it doesn't work, but it's just the blanket "betting systems never work" post prior to yours that irked me a little. Though I seriously do think that we should stick some sort of cautionary message on the board, just so everyone who comes in knows they're not going to get rich quick from one of these.
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#8
#8
No offense taken Scorcho and, none intended.

When I first started playing, I did see such a banner as you describe while reading something on card counting. I didn't believe it, thinking that it was a come-on for a "counting book." But it did get me thinking about it and I started researching. I bought a streak betting simulator to try out various schemes myself and played countless hands dealt to myself to try them out.
I came to the conclusion (as many others have) that betting strategies that are completely independent of deck composition are not really effective to the long haul player. If you are extremely lucky, you might get away from the tables winning for quite some time before variance catches up with you and the dealer gets on that killer streak and wipes you out.

Personally, I "flat bet" as I've stated in many other posts. I do not sit down for an hour or two....I'm there for 10 or 12 hours at a time. I might increase my bet a little for a couple of hands if I see a ton of low cards falling for two or three rounds. Last night, I was playing at a $5-$25 table with 6-decks (Oklahoma Blackjack with $.25 ante per hand and I hate it and still play it because it's the only game within a single day's driving distance!) After a couple of rounds (7 players at the table) that were predominately low cards, I stuck the table max out and sure enough, that round saw almost nothing but high cards. I got a blackjack out of it. Even this is risky but at least there is some rhyme and reason connected to it and it won't draw much heat from the pit. Hell, I was talking to the pit boss who had drug up a stool to sit next to my third-base position and I discussed what I was going to do with him <LOL>

I play for the hell of it and thoroughly enjoy the game and interaction at the tables. It's entertainment for me. But I do see a lot of people at the tables who get an adrenalin rush out of the betting systems they've either read about or devised themselves. Sometimes they win, sometimes they loose.

The main thing about the strategies is that THEY DO NOT change the house edge. They do not increase your chances of leaving the table ahead of where you came in any more than they enhance your chances of loosing any more than randomly changing the size of your wager. But they can add excitement for the adrenalin deprived player who just can't work with the game and grind it out.

To those of you who are considering betting schemes, do it with your eyes open. Look for that "turnaround" hand that makes or breaks the strategy in your favor....you might have to win three in a row before you are "betting with house money" so understand that going in. But that last statement in itself is a myth....that's NOT HOUSE MONEY...it's YOURS and you are risking it just the same as if you'd robbed your grocery stash! <LOL>
 
S

stevenlou

Member
#9
#9
Mikeaber,
If you don't mind, can you tell me what casino in Oklahoma play $5 bet with dealing from 6 decks shoe. Choctaw and Cherokee casino used continue shuffle machine. Thanks


stevenlou
 
Mikeaber

Mikeaber

Well-Known Member
#10
#10
KAW Casino in Newkirk deal 6-decks, hand shuffled with $.25 ante and $2 - $25 betting. They hit soft 17's. Split Aces only one time. Split any other pair as many times as you wish. Double on anything. BJ 3:2. Not a bad game, but the ante will kill you even though it is only $.25.
 
picasso

picasso

Banned
#11
#11
Mikeaber said:
No offense taken Scorcho and, none intended.

When I first started playing, I did see such a banner as you describe while reading something on card counting. I didn't believe it, thinking that it was a come-on for a "counting book." But it did get me thinking about it and I started researching. I bought a streak betting simulator to try out various schemes myself and played countless hands dealt to myself to try them out.
I came to the conclusion (as many others have) that betting strategies that are completely independent of deck composition are not really effective to the long haul player. If you are extremely lucky, you might get away from the tables winning for quite some time before variance catches up with you and the dealer gets on that killer streak and wipes you out.

Personally, I "flat bet" as I've stated in many other posts. I do not sit down for an hour or two....I'm there for 10 or 12 hours at a time. I might increase my bet a little for a couple of hands if I see a ton of low cards falling for two or three rounds. Last night, I was playing at a $5-$25 table with 6-decks (Oklahoma Blackjack with $.25 ante per hand and I hate it and still play it because it's the only game within a single day's driving distance!) After a couple of rounds (7 players at the table) that were predominately low cards, I stuck the table max out and sure enough, that round saw almost nothing but high cards. I got a blackjack out of it. Even this is risky but at least there is some rhyme and reason connected to it and it won't draw much heat from the pit. Hell, I was talking to the pit boss who had drug up a stool to sit next to my third-base position and I discussed what I was going to do with him <LOL>

I play for the hell of it and thoroughly enjoy the game and interaction at the tables. It's entertainment for me. But I do see a lot of people at the tables who get an adrenalin rush out of the betting systems they've either read about or devised themselves. Sometimes they win, sometimes they loose.

The main thing about the strategies is that THEY DO NOT change the house edge. They do not increase your chances of leaving the table ahead of where you came in any more than they enhance your chances of loosing any more than randomly changing the size of your wager. But they can add excitement for the adrenalin deprived player who just can't work with the game and grind it out.

To those of you who are considering betting schemes, do it with your eyes open. Look for that "turnaround" hand that makes or breaks the strategy in your favor....you might have to win three in a row before you are "betting with house money" so understand that going in. But that last statement in itself is a myth....that's NOT HOUSE MONEY...it's YOURS and you are risking it just the same as if you'd robbed your grocery stash! <LOL>
Click to expand...
I enjoyed reading your post; I too enjoy the game at the table. Most people there don't even know basic strategy, and don't try telling them! Progressions can be fun but they can also be deadly. When I first stated playing, I played the good old Martingale; here I am sitting with a table max bet of 200$, my last hand. Dealer gives me AA and he gets a 10. I have to split, that is another 200$. I can’t cover it...

Hit

I get a 10 !?

AA10 aka big 12

hit

10, bust

Is there a lesson or two here?
 
T

tfg

Well-Known Member
#12
#12
Yeah, the Martingale will only work short term and will wipe you out at some point. There's just no other way around it. Twice in the last three weeks alone, I've lost enough hands in a row that I would've been over the table max. I sat down at a fresh shoe and lost the first 6 hands once and then another time I won the first few hands of a shoe and then lost like 5 in a row. It's just too dangerous and to risky to be wagering that much to win like one betting unit esentially. If you hit a bad streak, you could lose like 7 or 8 in a row.

With all that being said however, I am basically a recreational player that uses KO strategy sometimes along with basically just situational betting. I normally just flat bet and if I see the count shoot up like +10 or+15 after two rounds or so, then sometimes, and I mean sometimes, I'll use a quasi progression where I'll up my bet for the next two hands and then if I don't win those I'll double it for the third hand. If i lose all three of those, then I go back down to my normal betting. I'm not a professional or anything so I like playing as entertainment and to win a couple extra bucks but I get bored sometimes after just seeing neutral shoes so I change it up a bit.
 
P

palroot

Member
#13
#13
Rip said:
what's the possibilites of the most hands u can lose in a row when following basic strategy...??
Click to expand...
I once lost 14 consecutive hands. Should be a rare occurence but it is possible. If one were following this progression it would require that you bet roughly $80,000 on the 15th hand with no more guarantee of winning that hand than any of the 14 that preceded it.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#15
#15
Don't forget, too, that in blackjack you only have a 43% chance to win a hand in the first place. The small house edge derives from the fact that we can benefit from naturals, splits, and double downs, which makes up for the greater number of hands that we will lose.
 
aslan

aslan

Well-Known Member
#19
#19
blace said:
It is explained here:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/Betting_Systems_Oscars_Blackjack_System.htm
Click to expand...
what if you are at three units and you lose 6 in a row, win 1, then lose 2 more? I think it goes this way according to the system:

bet1 w1 cumw/l...1
bet2 w2 cumw/l...1+2=3
bet3 l3 cumw/l....3+(-3)=0
bet3 l3 cumw/l... 0+(-3)=-3
bet3 l3 cumw/l....(-3)+(-3)=-6
bet3 l3 cumw/l....(-6)+(-3)=-9
bet3 l3 cumw/l....(-9)+(-3)=-12
bet3 l3 cumw/l....(-12)(-3)=-15
bet3 w3 cumw/l...(-15)+3=-12
bet4 l4 cumw/l....(-12)+(-4)=-16
bet4 l4 cumw/l....(-16)+(-4)=-20 :yikes:
 
T

Thunder

Well-Known Member
#20
#20
Oscar's grind only works when you have lots of streaks. All it takes is a few W L W L W L and you'll be hurting though since it has you raise your bets when you are in a losing streak and win a hand.
 
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