Adding an advantage

[captheathmalc]

Since I found this site, and started my first thread (this being my 2nd), the replies I recieved to the methods I used during my BJ sessions were scrutinized, ridiculed, and in some cases deemed Bull****. At any rate, I decided to dig a little deeper into what people were saying to me (What could it hurt?) , and with this in-mind , decided to start practicing counting.

For those of you who haven't read the other thread..I learned a simple count system about 17 years ago, but abandoned it due to another strategy I developed. Anyway.... So while I have to wait for ordered books to arrive, I have scoured the internet in search of any useful information that may help me in my new quest...which, ultimately is to see if an advanced count will improve my take , or if I could combine a count with what I'm doing now...for the same objective.

Now that I have that out of the way.... Here is something that occured to me while I was surfing for specs of info:

If you knew exactly how many of each cards were in a shoe, during play...what sort of additional advantage would this give you..if any?

For example, say we are using a single deck...and we know that only 9 T's remain, four 2's; 1 ace,etc,etc. Would this advantage be any better than a strong advanced system? And what about in-conjunction with an advanced system.

The idea I have would only be able to be used by people with strong math skills, who have no problem with decimals, and dividing fractions.

But, the basic idea is to assign a weighted binary value to each card.

Lemme know what you think.

[supercoolmancool]

What you are trying to invent is the perfect count, and quite surprisingly, it is not worth the effort. If you want to try advanced techniques to get you larger edges you should just use what other people have come up with: shuffle tracking, ace sequencing, card steering, ect.

[captheathmalc]

Originally Posted by supercoolmancool

What you are trying to invent is the perfect count, and quite surprisingly, it is not worth the effort. If you want to try advanced techniques to get you larger edges you should just use what other people have come up with: shuffle tracking, ace sequencing, card steering, ect.

Yeah, I've never been one to follow the beaten path.

[Automatic Monkey]

Originally Posted by captheathmalc

...
If you knew exactly how many of each cards were in a shoe, during play...what sort of additional advantage would this give you..if any?...

This is called Perfect Strategy and it can give you significant improvement, but not as much as simply betting more when the odds are in your favor. There's no play that works better than having a bunch of black chips down in your spot when you get a blackjack! Makes your decision making real easy!

There have been many Perfect Strategy routines written. Until very recently there was a Java routine online called Perfect Play Blackjack that allowed you to set rules, enter your cards and it will give you your advantage for hitting/standing/doubling/splitting. It was a handy thing for online play. Too bad that site appears to be down.

[Sonny]

I agree with supercoolmancool (we've got to give that boy a shorter nickname!). What you are proposing is exactly what Peter Griffin did decades ago. That means: a) Your approach is definitely valid, and b) all the hard work has already been done. Hooray! :D

Griffin gave a value to each card based on how much it is worth to the player. He called them Effects of Removal. People could then create card counting systems that weighted each card based directly on how it affected the house edge. People could also measure the accuracy of any card counting system by finding the correlation coefficient of the system to the “perfect” value of each card. This lead to very accurate and very simple card counting systems. The HiLo, for example, is about 97% accurate in estimating the player’s advantage according to his estimations. There are several system with 99% accuracy.

The gain from using “computer perfect” play is therefore minimal. The main advantage of a computer is that is can play the hands more accurately. However, since the majority of the player’s advantage comes from proper betting, the use of a computer does not gain much.

As far as the responses to your other thread, I think a lot of people don’t really understand what you are doing (myself included). You seem to indicate that you are getting tells from dealer’s who use the mirror peekers, but that isn’t possible. I think we just don’t understand what you’re doing. We get incessant people promoting “fantastic new systems” about every week. Many of them aren’t nearly as rational as you are so the arguments can get very heated. You’ll have to excuse some people’s short-fuse attitudes.

-Sonny-

[Sonny]

Originally Posted by Automatic Monkey

Until very recently there was a Java routine online called Perfect Play Blackjack that allowed you to set rules, enter your cards and it will give you your advantage for hitting/standing/doubling/splitting. It was a handy thing for online play. Too bad that site appears to be down.

You can still buy the Blackjack 2021 software:

http://www.beejack.com/tools.html

It does the same thing but it costs $15.

-Sonny-

[zengrifter]

Originally Posted by captheathmalc

Since I found this site, and started my first thread (this being my 2nd), the replies I recieved to the methods I used during my BJ sessions were scrutinized, ridiculed, and in some cases deemed Bull****. At any rate, I decided to dig a little deeper into what people were saying to me (What could it hurt?) , and with this in-mind , decided to start practicing counting.

Start here -

Free Counting Resources On Web
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=697

[captheathmalc]

Originally Posted by Sonny

I agree with supercoolmancool (we've got to give that boy a shorter nickname!). What you are proposing is exactly what Peter Griffin did decades ago. That means: a) Your approach is definitely valid, and b) all the hard work has already been done. Hooray! :D

Griffin gave a value to each card based on how much it is worth to the player. He called them Effects of Removal. People could then create card counting systems that weighted each card based directly on how it affected the house edge. People could also measure the accuracy of any card counting system by finding the correlation coefficient of the system to the “perfect” value of each card. This lead to very accurate and very simple card counting systems. The HiLo, for example, is about 97% accurate in estimating the player’s advantage according to his estimations. There are several system with 99% accuracy.

The gain from using “computer perfect” play is therefore minimal. The main advantage of a computer is that is can play the hands more accurately. However, since the majority of the player’s advantage comes from proper betting, the use of a computer does not gain much.

As far as the responses to your other thread, I think a lot of people don’t really understand what you are doing (myself included). You seem to indicate that you are getting tells from dealer’s who use the mirror peekers, but that isn’t possible. I think we just don’t understand what you’re doing. We get incessant people promoting “fantastic new systems” about every week. Many of them aren’t nearly as rational as you are so the arguments can get very heated. You’ll have to excuse some people’s short-fuse attitudes.

-Sonny-

Hmmm... yes... I didn't know of Griffin, but that is the basic Idea.

But (cannot seem to quit adding stuff)..... As you mentioned about proper betting.....my reasoning is that if you know how many of each card is left in the shoe...say...you know 100% that there are no more 6,7,8's left, 8 T's and the rest (say 30)are either ace,2,3,4,5....and you are on the last of a 6D shoe..... you are holding 5/5 vs the dealer 6. Now normally you would double on this.... but since you know the exact amount of each card..... you may wish to split, as your chances of getting an ace/low are very good (66% range)...and then double the splits. Wouldn't this information increase your ability to make the $10K bet at the right time? as opposed to a regular count that may be -5, but wouldn't change your strategy in this situation. BTW..I am assuming that a person is using Hilo RC, and keeping a TC.

Now.... if you use the assumed strategy (Hilo/RC/TC), then you wouldn't double down, as your strategy is telling you (correctly) that there are far more low cards in the deck, and accordingly, the percentages are aginst you.

Now...using my theory, we would actually split....for the same reason you wouldn't double...... The reason behind this, is under my theory, we know that there are only 8 cards in the entire deck that we could possibly bust with....and the percentages are on our side.

[mdlbj]

Originally Posted by captheathmalc

Hmmm... yes... I didn't know of Griffin, but that is the basic Idea.

But (cannot seem to quit adding stuff)..... As you mentioned about proper betting.....my reasoning is that if you know how many of each card is left in the shoe...say...you know 100% that there are no more 6,7,8's left, 8 T's and the rest (say 30)are either ace,2,3,4,5....and you are on the last of a 6D shoe..... you are holding 5/5 vs the dealer 6. Now normally you would double on this.... but since you know the exact amount of each card..... you may wish to split, as your chances of getting an ace/low are very good (66% range)...and then double the splits. Wouldn't this information increase your ability to make the $10K bet at the right time? as opposed to a regular count that may be -5, but wouldn't change your strategy in this situation. BTW..I am assuming that a person is using Hilo RC, and keeping a TC.

Now.... if you use the assumed strategy (Hilo/RC/TC), then you wouldn't double down, as your strategy is telling you (correctly) that there are far more low cards in the deck, and accordingly, the percentages are aginst you.

Now...using my theory, we would actually split....for the same reason you wouldn't double...... The reason behind this, is under my theory, we know that there are only 8 cards in the entire deck that we could possibly bust with....and the percentages are on our side.

Double. There are an unknown amount of aces left as well.

[captheathmalc]

Originally Posted by mdlbj

Double. There are an unknown amount of aces left as well.

Under the "assumed" strategy, there are an unknown amount of aces.....

Under my theoretical strategy, I would know the exact number of aces.

Doubling is not a "bad" strategy..... but the percentage is still with you if split the fives, then double.....under my theory.

Assume that of the 30 cards left...2 aces are left...that would be 10 of 30 cards that could make you a 20 or 21.

Since all the other cards that are left are below 6, we have a very high chance that the worst we can do is break even, whereas if you split the fives
you have a 60+% chance of getting anything but a ten...and if you do...the percentages only increase. Chances are, you'll get the low card, and then you double the split.

When I put down 10k, I fully plan on winning it, and although this isn't always the case....I do take every advantage offered to me.

In this case, the 5's being split represent a good chance at winning 20K. I would definitely take this approach over the double....which is more likely to land you a low card, and then the dealer probably ends-up with a high hand...you lose 10K. I would hit that hand before I doubled it, and I would split it before I hit.

Understand: The dealer has a high percentage of not busing on his first hand...only way would be if he had a T, then drew a T.

You, on the other hand, by splitting the 5's are "guaranteed" at least 2 cards on the split. Why? Because we already know the number of T's and all the other cards are below 6.

Then again...when I play my max-bet, I tend to be aggressive. But, it has always worked..so I'll continue. But if my theory has anything to add to an advanced count, I may change my strategy completely.

Will need quite a bit of time to work it all out....but I'm positive it can be done with a limited number of decks. (More decks=harder calculations=slower timing= mess-ups)