Adding an advantage
- Thread starter captheathmalc
- Start date
First of all, it is possible to know exactly what the next card will be. That's why I like blackjack. If you are really good, other than the big wheel and cheating, it's the only game I know of that offers a 100% advantage.
Also as far as physics goes, what would happen if there was a pole that was 20m long and a barn that was 10m long and someone ran into the barn with the pole at 90% the speed of light? Suppose that there is a farmer standing off to the side who would then see that the pole was 8.73m and the barn was 10m and would then flip a switch to close the front and back doors at the instant that the pole was all the way inside the barn. What would happen?
Also as far as physics goes, what would happen if there was a pole that was 20m long and a barn that was 10m long and someone ran into the barn with the pole at 90% the speed of light? Suppose that there is a farmer standing off to the side who would then see that the pole was 8.73m and the barn was 10m and would then flip a switch to close the front and back doors at the instant that the pole was all the way inside the barn. What would happen?
Memories of an exam from my 3rd semester of college physics...
Memories of an exam from my 3rd semester of college physics...
Well I really didn't know the answer so I looked it up online and this is what it said,"If the doors are kept shut the rod will obviously smash into the barn door at one end. If the door withstands this the leading end of the rod will come to rest in the frame of reference of the stationary observer. There can be no such thing as a rigid rod in relativity so the trailing end will not stop immediately and the rod will be compressed beyond the amount it was Lorentz contracted. If it does not explode under the strain and it is sufficiently elastic it will come to rest and start to spring back to its natural shape but since it is too big for the barn the other end is now going to crash into the back door and the rod will be trapped in a compressed state inside the barn." - http://www2.corepower.com:8080/~relfaq/barn_pole.html (Archive copy)
No, I'm not.
It is?
Okay...so you are playing...any table...any rules...(realistic)..... you are halfway through the shoe (or deck, if a single deck game).....even if you have a photographic memory and are a savant...there is no way to know what the next card will be.
Please explain to me how you know exactly what the next card will be...assuming it isn't the last card...which never happens in a shoe, and rarely happens in single-deck games. Please explain. Obviously I have missed something.....as have the people I travel with. So enlighten us, if you'd be so kind.
It is?
Okay...so you are playing...any table...any rules...(realistic)..... you are halfway through the shoe (or deck, if a single deck game).....even if you have a photographic memory and are a savant...there is no way to know what the next card will be.
Please explain to me how you know exactly what the next card will be...assuming it isn't the last card...which never happens in a shoe, and rarely happens in single-deck games. Please explain. Obviously I have missed something.....as have the people I travel with. So enlighten us, if you'd be so kind.
I believe what supercoolmancool is refering to is card steering or what we call the cut game. It is an opportunistic technique where if you have practiced well and can catch a glimpse of the last card of the shoe as the dealer rolls them and moves them for a player cut, you cut an exact amount from the back (again a very practiced technique) so the dealer then puts that cut amount to the front. Say you saw a 10, if done correctly you know you cut 52 cards from the back. You would know in exactly 52 cards a 10 will be showing up. The next part of the technique would be to steer, or manipulate the hands to land the 10 where you want. Landing the 10 in your hand gives you about a 13% advantage. As far as a 100% advantage that comes when you take the chance and land it as the dealers potential draw card. If the dealer needs to draw and a ten will bust him you just gave yourself a 100% advantage on that hand. The consolation to this if the dealer doesn't need to draw you will know the first card of the next hand will be a 10 and you can bet accordingly. This is a risky technique filled with variance but nevertheless worth the risk if your good at it and have the proper conditions. Its great for no mid shoe entry games, and although there are ways to practice looking to see the back card, there are still casinos that don't even cover the back card. So yes there are ways to know exactly what card is coming next.
I don't get how you get a 100% advantage when you know the dealer has to draw. Let's say the dealer has a 5 showing and you know he has to draw and that it will be a 10. The dealer still has a chance to draw again and beat you still. Of course you still have a great advantage knowing that 10 is coming no matter what the dealer has, but can it be 100%?
Like I said in my post, if the dealer needs to draw, and a 10 will bust him you have given yourself a 100% advantage. So if the dealer is showing a 7 and flips over an 8, you are now 100% gauranteed to win if you correctly put the 10 as his draw card. Of course there is great risk in doing this as there is a possiblity that the dealer may make a hand with the draw. Thats why I prefer to either land 10's or aces in my hands and 5's and 6's in the dealers hole card and not depend on giving the dealer a draw card. Its a high variance move no matter what you try to land, thats why I like to know at least the card I'm steering will be used to its perceived potential.
That's like saying you prefer not to double down when you have a high bet out. Yes it's higher varience, but it's the right play. When you steer a 10 card to be taken as the dealer's first hit card you give every hand on the table a 30% advantage. Far more than a 13% advantage to one hand for landing a 10 as it's first card.
In honesty, you have to be far more accurate to steer the small cards into the hole. There's no room for error. Even the 2nd dealer hit card provides a good advantage, never mind the fact that you can use the 10 on the next round if it doesn't bust the dealer.
Also if a double down opertunity arises, you are better to try to steer the 10 to the double down than bust the dealer, but that's a whole other story.
RJT.
In honesty, you have to be far more accurate to steer the small cards into the hole. There's no room for error. Even the 2nd dealer hit card provides a good advantage, never mind the fact that you can use the 10 on the next round if it doesn't bust the dealer.
Also if a double down opertunity arises, you are better to try to steer the 10 to the double down than bust the dealer, but that's a whole other story.
RJT.
No RJT its saying what is the more consistent play for real life play. There are many theoretical correct plays but there are also advantage plays that are not entirely worth the risk. I do not have any fear about my accuracy when it comes to a cut or to steering so the risk behind putting a weak card in the dealers hole does not bother me. Its when there are steps of variance that I choose to take out the methods with the most steps. To me we have practiced just about every cut method and applied it to the felt. My opinion on this is based on what we have found to be the most practical and successful in actual casino play. Your findings may be different but we have been very successful with this type of play and that is what we consider the bottomline on high variance plays.
It is quite possible to know what the next card is,and even size your bet accordingly.
All you need is a dealer who pulls the top card in a hand-held game.If you are sitting at first base,the dealer will wheel slightly towards third base as she is dealing folks third cards.If she exposes the card,and everyone including her has a pat hand,you now know what your first card of the next hand will be.
Is it common to find a dealer that does this regularly-no,but neither is a dealer who shows the hole card.Do most dealers do it occasionally- I'd say yes,and some dealers do it fairly often.
All you need is a dealer who pulls the top card in a hand-held game.If you are sitting at first base,the dealer will wheel slightly towards third base as she is dealing folks third cards.If she exposes the card,and everyone including her has a pat hand,you now know what your first card of the next hand will be.
Is it common to find a dealer that does this regularly-no,but neither is a dealer who shows the hole card.Do most dealers do it occasionally- I'd say yes,and some dealers do it fairly often.
In that case you only know that you have the 100% advantage after you have made all of your decisions and it doesnt matter. You know the 10 is coming, but what you didnt know is that the dealer had the 8 in the hole, so you didnt know that you had a 100% advantage while making your playing decisions. You didn't know whether the dealer had an 8 or a 4 as the hole card, so you didn't really have a 100% advantage unless you could know the hole card and the draw card both.
Not the case at all! When you are counting, you raise your bets when there are extra high cards remaining in the shoe. You don't know you'll be dealt the high cards, but you still have the advantage. You could end up with a 16 against a dealer 20, but given the same situation again, you'd still put out the big money.
It's the same here. Even though you can't know the outcome of the hand before it's played, by having a 10 positioned as the dealer's first hit card you have a massive advantage. No one hand has a 100% advantage (remember this is a team technique, you couldn't steer a card this accurately with plooppies on the table), but each hand has an average of somewhere around 30% advantage and this means that if your team is playing 7 spots, you will have over 100% advantage (to the astute out there you'd be thinking "why not 210%??", but you have to remember that you shouldn't have more than 3 BIG money hands out as you're going to have to take hits on the small money hands to ensure that the card lands where you want it).
As to your comments Bojack - fair play to you. If you have acctually played these games with enough accuracy to make them profitable, well done. Not many people ever manage that. I myself have never played a cuts game. Plenty of opertunities, but have never been able to assemble the team to do it. And i do understand that this can be a high varience play, but with the bankroll and an advantage that high, getting to the long run (i.e. where your EV is bigger than 1 or even 2 standard deviations) is certainly not years of play away, it's in the 100's of successful plays of this technique.
RJT.
It's the same here. Even though you can't know the outcome of the hand before it's played, by having a 10 positioned as the dealer's first hit card you have a massive advantage. No one hand has a 100% advantage (remember this is a team technique, you couldn't steer a card this accurately with plooppies on the table), but each hand has an average of somewhere around 30% advantage and this means that if your team is playing 7 spots, you will have over 100% advantage (to the astute out there you'd be thinking "why not 210%??", but you have to remember that you shouldn't have more than 3 BIG money hands out as you're going to have to take hits on the small money hands to ensure that the card lands where you want it).
As to your comments Bojack - fair play to you. If you have acctually played these games with enough accuracy to make them profitable, well done. Not many people ever manage that. I myself have never played a cuts game. Plenty of opertunities, but have never been able to assemble the team to do it. And i do understand that this can be a high varience play, but with the bankroll and an advantage that high, getting to the long run (i.e. where your EV is bigger than 1 or even 2 standard deviations) is certainly not years of play away, it's in the 100's of successful plays of this technique.
RJT.