Adding an advantage

shadroch · Jan 31, 2007

What I said,and what you seem to ignore, is there are times when the guy at first base knows exactly what first card he will be getting,and can bet accordingly.
I really don't know how much clearer I can be or how much denser you can be.
Believe it,don't believe it. Doesn't effect my way of playing one iota.
But at least have the common decency to not quote people out of context.

Sonny · Jan 31, 2007

captheathmalc said:

But what if you lose money over the next two years? That is very possible, especially for a novice who does not really understand the methods he is using. Even a great recreational player who plays fairly often can be in the red after two years of play. I think your expectations are not necessarily realistic. That is why it is so crucial to understand the concepts of variance, N0 and ROR. Without a solid understanding of the fundamentals you cannot expect to be successful.

captheathmalc said:

I think many of us are having trouble helping you because we do not understand your goal. It seems like you’re just looking for an easy way to make a quick score. You talk about gambling as though you could be assured of making enough money to quit in a few years. That is definitely not the case, especially for a novice who is trying to use advanced techniques. You make it sound as though a weak system and a happy attitude is all that is required.

I’m also very confused about your skill level. You say that you tried to count cards about 17 years ago but gave it up. You started to read Revere’s book but had to skip over the parts that “lulled you to sleep.” You have had some luck with “subconscious counting”, betting on imaginary tells (even when the dealer doesn’t have any information to tell) and playing at “happy” tables. You also mentioned that you are currently learning KO, but you continue to post questions looking for a quicker, easier way to get an advantage. Since playing BJ is your only source of income, I would suggest that you stick to your own advice:

“IF you are going to learn to count....or try ANY system...then make sure you know it PERFECT!!!! Otherwise, you are not only cheating yourself, but you are fooling yourself too. It may take you six months, but the nice thing....the money will wait for you!”

Read a few books, listen to a few pros (and helpful amateurs too!) and really learn the fundamentals of BJ before you start inventing system or arguing with other players. We are all just trying to help you. If we are being rude it is because you haven’t been listening to what we are saying. If we are being offensive it is because we are trying to show you how silly some of the typical “gambler’s logic” can be. If you are happy with your current system then by all means continue to play that way. If you want to learn the real techniques for beating the game, you’ve got plenty of reading ahead of you:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?p=21994

-Sonny-

captheathmalc · Feb 5, 2007

shadroch said:

I didn't Igonore you...I stated that it is impossible to know every card in the shoe...You stated the above comment: "And you'd still be wrong."

It is not me that is ignoring, or taking quotes out of context it is you. As for your assertion that I am dense; that is your opinion and you're entitled to it.

As for what I say having an effect on your play...I could care less. As I have said earlier: Take it or leave it.

captheathmalc · Feb 5, 2007

Sonny said:

Losing money is a relistic possibility regardless of who you are, or how good you are.

Sonny said:

Again...opinions are like anatomy-parts, we all have them..... your opinion of my level of play fits in that catagory. You assume way too much. You say that I'm looking for a "quick" score.... that opinion makes me believe that you haven't paid very much attention to what I've said.

As for me being a novice....I agree that I'd be a novice in "counting".... a novice at BJ...not at all. You say I am a novice trying to use advanced techniques.... counting cards is a rather simple concept, and I have no problem doing it (I used this method on Wednesday, and was +$570...not bad, but definitely not good).....you make it sound as if counting cards is some great strain on one's mental abilities, that only great masters (such as yourself?) can have any chance of doing.

I find this all laughable. I would be willing to bet that I have won more at BJ in the last six months than you (Bows to the master...tongue-in-cheek) have in your entire, advanced, career.

Sonny said:

The fact that you are confused is obvious. As for me "continuing to post questions, looking for a quicker, easier way to gain an advantage" (as you said)..... this is pure BS..... I have asked one question on this board...that was for any "Suggestions" that people had concerning other books that I could read, other than the ones I had mentioned.

As for Revere..... Yes....I am lulled to sleep when someone is telling me something I already know. For instance: Chapter 1: The game of BlackJack; chapter 2 The rules of the game;Chapter 3 A preview of the strategies. (This concerns basic strategy...nothing else) Of the 180 pages in the first edition (including back charts) about 70 pages had information I had not read already. So excuse me if I am not willing to waste my time relearning something I already know.

Here is a new question for all you rich, professional, blackjack players who think you know more than everyone else: Why have none of you gave me the type of challenge(s) that you have offered so many others? I'd love nothing more than to prove you wrong.

I just left Vegas, and I'm currently in Concord, CA. If one of you "great" Masters want to challenge me...how about you meet me in Tahoe? There is a tornament (BJ) ...top 5 win $. Cost of seat is only $1500. How about one of you great professionals putting your money where your mouth is?

shadroch · Feb 5, 2007

OMG!!! You are comparing physics to BJ theory. Comparing a factual science to a theoretical science is not conducive to a good argument.

For instance... At any given time during a BJ session, you cannot definitely know what the next card is going to be.

Make sure you know what you're quoting before you go sticking words into people's mouths!

On February 8th, I'll be at Circus Circus in LV; the 9th I'll be at the Mirage.

February 26-28 I'll be in AC, I'll move between the Taj-Mahal, and Tro

As I am enclosing your own quote,it is obvious that you said it is impossible to know what the next card will be,not the entire shoe.

It also says you'll be in Vegas thru Feb 9th? What happened?
Its bad enough when people misquote others,misquoting themselves is just plain stupid.

Bojack1 · Feb 5, 2007

Hey Captain can you please just stop with the nonsense. I reached out to you to try to make you understand its not worth sweating the small stuff, and that most everybody's advice and or comments were either based on good intentions or confusion in what sometimes seems like contradictions in your posts. Apparently you don't get it. Attacking people like Sonny with your bragging of how much money you have is not only childish its just plain stupid. And why must you feel the need to prove yourself to people that you don't even know and have no real bearing on your life. I gave you all the consideration I could even though I have yet to agree with just about everything you have posted. But at this point you sound like a child on the verge of a tantrum because nobody will play with you. Enough with your lame challenges to people to meet up with you to either see you play or play in a tournament with you. Do you need a hug? Listen, most peoples lives have a little more importance in them not to drop everything just to meet up with some unknown person ranting on a message board. But I will give you this, in my travels I will keep my eye out for a high roller wearing an Ohio State hat. If I see you, I promise you I will take a look at what it is your doing that claims to make you so much money. On the same token I doubt I will introduce myself to you, but you'll know I was there.

Sonny · Feb 5, 2007

captheathmalc said:

I certainly may have misjudged or misread some of your earlier posts. If that is the case then I apologize. That is just the impression that I got from your statements.

captheathmalc said:

With all due respect, I think you have a somewhat misguided concept of what constitutes experience. You can play accurate basic strategy which makes you an absolute beginner. It doesn’t matter how many casinos you’ve played in, how long you’ve been using “pattern recognition” systems or how many “happy” tables you’ve found. None of that will make you a better player. All of that “experience” was just wasted time. In the world of skillful BJ playing you are starting from scratch.

captheathmalc said:

Those first few chapters are about more than basic strategy. Revere was always very upfront about the dedication and commitment required to become a great player. Those first few chapters are all about creating a winning attitude in the reader. Without the proper discipline, Revere knew that people would just skim through his book without learning what he was trying to teach. He builds a solid foundation of how BS works and why it works. Although much of that book is outdated, the groundwork it sets is very important.

captheathmalc said:

I’d be happy to accept your challenge. We can simulate your “subconscious counting” at happy tables against my Hi-Opt II at unhappy tables. It’ll take CVData less than 10 minutes to show us the EVs after 500,000,000 rounds. I’ll even be a sport by giving you KO and not including my gains from shuffle tracking. What exactly do you expect to prove?

-Sonny-

bj bob · Feb 5, 2007

Sounds like a matchup!

Ladies and Gentlemen!!!! Tonight's extravaganza features two top heavyweights from the world of blackjack! In this corner, wieghing in at an antronomical 210 I.Q. is "Happy Table" Cap. and opposing him, in the far corner, is our very own Sonny from the City of the Angels weighing in with a massive bankroll and nothing but mathematical logic. Location of this bout is yet to be determined, but rumored to take place somewhere in the High Sierra. This is scheduled to be a 20hr. head-to-head winner-take-all event with the opening line lisiting Sonny as an 8:5 favorite. All wagering will be handled through Mikeaber Bookie Joint. Thank you for your attention AND LET THE RUMBLE BEGIN!

RJT · Feb 5, 2007

Lol, i do wonder how you are going to simulate 'subconscious' counting Sonny. To me it just sounds like comparing KO to Hi Opt II and we already know the results of that.
The problem here is that Caps claims simply cannot be verified using maths. We are talking purely anecdotal results, based on a system of tells that certainly common wisdom would have us believe would be very rare indeed (between finding a dealer that offset the cards on the reader and one that gave a quickly distinguished tell) and the suggestion of a possible 'subconscious' count taking place, there's just nothing to test.
Now putting aside positive results, you are never going to be able to prove mathematically that this is a working system and hence arguing about it in a mathematical sense isn't the solution and that's where the problem lies. The rest of the Blackjack community (barring the likes of Richard Patrick) work solely on mathematically justified techniques.
Now if there was some way for either side to conclusively prove their point and silence the doubters, fair play, but it seems to me that this all comes back to the old adage about arguing on the internet being like compeating in the special olympics.......
Oh and just incase someone is to raise the challenges that have been issued - these would prove nothing. There's just no way that any observation of play could have a large enough sample size to be statistically relevant.
No offence intended to anyone involved, that's just the way i see it.

RJT.

ScottH · Feb 5, 2007

bj bob said:

Ladies and Gentlemen!!!! Tonight's extravaganza features two top heavyweights from the world of blackjack! In this corner, wieghing in at an antronomical 210 I.Q. is "Happy Table" Cap. and opposing him, in the far corner, is our very own Sonny from the City of the Angels weighing in with a massive bankroll and nothing but mathematical logic. Location of this bout is yet to be determined, but rumored to take place somewhere in the High Sierra. This is scheduled to be a 20hr. head-to-head winner-take-all event with the opening line lisiting Sonny as an 8:5 favorite. All wagering will be handled through Mikeaber Bookie Joint. Thank you for your attention AND LET THE RUMBLE BEGIN!

How high does the IQ scale go? I thought it was 200, but wasnt sure. 210 would be FREAK OF NATURE IQ.

bj bob · Feb 5, 2007

Well naturally

We're not just talking about your everyday, run-of-the-mill hominoid here!

halcyon1234 · Feb 5, 2007

ScottH said:

IQ isnt' really a scale, but more of a coefficient. An IQ score is supposed to measure your intelligence in relation to where someone of the same age as you should be, given the same educational and societal backgrounds. An average person should score 100. Someone "twice as smart" would scroe 200. The scores are only rough guesses and not accurate measurements, though. They are EXTREMELY culturally biased. For example, take a genius 12 year old who grew up on a farm in northern Ontario. Then enroll him in a school in downtown Toronto. The IQ tests there will have lots of questions about train schedules, local geography (streets, etc), cultural memes, histroy of the mayor, etc. Stuff that the child propably wouldn't know. It gets compounded for immigrants. Someone who grew up in rural India will know even LESS about downtown Toronto, or Ontario-- or Canada at all.

bj bob · Feb 5, 2007

And even more confusing

is the fact that you have to convert the U.S IQ scores into the Canadian system:laugh:

person1125 · Feb 6, 2007

captheathmalc said:

well what do you want a cookie?? i don't think anyone here really cares about how much you have made playing BJ. If you are serious about showing how good you are why don't you front the money??? If you have made SO MUCH in the past 6 months and extra $1500 shouldn't be a problem for you.

oh by the way my money would be on sonny or bojack

ScottH · Feb 6, 2007

halcyon1234 said:

IQ isnt' really a scale, but more of a coefficient. An IQ score is supposed to measure your intelligence in relation to where someone of the same age as you should be, given the same educational and societal backgrounds. An average person should score 100. Someone "twice as smart" would scroe 200. The scores are only rough guesses and not accurate measurements, though. They are EXTREMELY culturally biased. For example, take a genius 12 year old who grew up on a farm in northern Ontario. Then enroll him in a school in downtown Toronto. The IQ tests there will have lots of questions about train schedules, local geography (streets, etc), cultural memes, histroy of the mayor, etc. Stuff that the child propably wouldn't know. It gets compounded for immigrants. Someone who grew up in rural India will know even LESS about downtown Toronto, or Ontario-- or Canada at all.

I didn't know any of that. I have never heard of anyone having an IQ of 200 or higher before though. Even if it is just an estimate, that would be insane.

shadroch · Feb 6, 2007

I believe the woman who writes the Ask Marylin column in Parade is recognized as the person with the highest IQ.It was estimated to be in the 190s.

ScottH · Feb 6, 2007

shadroch said:

"Is it a problem that the woman have a smaller brain then a man?"
-Borat

That will be funny if you've seen the movie.

All joking aside, a 190 IQ is amazing. I guess you're really born with it, so I guess she just got really lucky. Yay for positive variance!

supercoolmancool · Feb 6, 2007

I saw on TV that there is this new kid from India who is a doctor and he passed her for the highest IQ of all-time.

shadroch · Feb 6, 2007

I think both her parents are geniuses,as well.I think its inherited,but you really need to work at it.

Automatic Monkey · Feb 6, 2007

ScottH said:

In more ways than one. IQ tests were developed to identify the mentally retarded, not the intelligent. Being they are multiple choice tests, everyone does some degree of guessing, and some guesses are going to be luckier than others. The more questions you know the answers to, the more significant those guesses become, thus the difference between scores of, say, 170 and 190 could amount to just a few lucky guesses. Math people get a snicker out of those who boast of extremely high IQ scores, because it demonstrates they don't fully understand the math behind the scoring.

We BJ players are all painfully familiar with this effect, when the difference between a good night and a bad night can come down to whether the dealer draws a 5 or a 6 on one hand.

Adding an advantage

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