Evaluate my technique

cdc01 · Feb 22, 2007

hi

I am no expert, bu t i hav played blackjack many times at local casino

Basically I am aware that the only way to have an increased insight to what the next card may be is to count cards. However as 1.5 of the shoe is discarded, I wonder what values this has.

However I digress, My question is as follows:

Statistically, how do my odds change with regards to winning when I always decline to hit when I have over hard 12?

What about if i hit on soft 18, 19, 20 *dealer shows 3,4,5,6
What if i split 10s on dealer showing 3,4,5,6?

i am more concerned with the first scenario as if you have 12 , the odds of busting or of hitting a card that does not help are:

10 10 10 10 (10, J Q K) bust = 4 cards
cards not helping:
A 2 3 4 = 4 cards

8 over 13 cards possible gives you a 61% chance of busting or getting a non
helping card (is 16 better than 12? what difference does it make?)

if you hit on 13, 14, 15, etc, the odds further decrease for cards that are favorable

eg hit on 15 = leaves 7/13 cards to bust you and 21 card that does not help (61%)

please point me to a free simulator where i can try this out or if you ahve worked this out, i would like to know

thanks
JAMIE

Sonny · Feb 22, 2007

cdc01 said:

Actually there are many ways to gain information about the cards including shuffle tracking, sequencing, and cutting/steering, but those are very advanced techniques.

cdc01 said:

Card counting can earn you about 1-2 bets per hour.

cdc01 said:

The “never bust” strategy increases the house edge from about 0.5% to a whopping 4%! Here’s a link to more info about it:

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4738
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack (see the “Bad Strategies” section)

cdc01 said:

There is a free simulator here:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/SimSimp_Beta.htm

And the advantages for every hand have already been calculated here:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/ev/ev.htm (Archive copy)

-Sonny-

cdc01 · Feb 23, 2007

where can i find a statistical calculation backing the inc house advantage

i understand what you are saying, and still am stubborn

As I mentioned, not hitting on 12 prevents you from busting or getting a non useful hand. I would expect that this would be helpful

eg. solo player stands on 12 . dealer flips card to show a 12. Dealer hits to 1. Dealer hits and busts.

like i said
how does hitting on 12 to get
13
14
15
16
help you?

there are 4/13 chances of hitting on 12 to get 17 18 19 20 21

please direct me to a mathematical explanation of how this helps. Of course you are relying on the dealer to bust, and what are the odds of that (no matter what the dealer has, or matter what the dealer has?)

J

cdc01 · Feb 23, 2007

where can i find a statistical calculation backing the inc house advantage

i understand what you are saying, and still am stubborn

As I mentioned, not hitting on 12 prevents you from busting or getting a non useful hand. I would expect that this would be helpful

eg. solo player stands on 12 . dealer flips card to show a 12. Dealer hits to 1. Dealer hits and busts.

like i said
how does hitting on 12 to get
13
14
15
16
help you?

there are 4/13 chances of hitting on 12 to get 17 18 19 20 21

please direct me to a mathematical explanation of how this helps. Of course you are relying on the dealer to bust, and what are the odds of that (no matter what the dealer has, or matter what the dealer has?)

J

EasyRhino · Feb 23, 2007

This might be better suited for the general blackjack forum, if not voodoo.

cdc01 said:

Intuitively, look at the number of escapes that you have. If you hit a 12 vs a dealer 10, you either:

a) bust (high probability, but not majority)
b) get a pat hand (17+) and let the dealer play
c) Get another stiff hand, where you then repeat the decisionmaking process.

The problem is, the dealer, in this situation, already has an advantage. If he is showing a 7 or higher, his odds are:
a) Have a pat hand (a majority probability)
b) Have a stiff hand, and then face the same dilemna that you were just facing, where he might either:
1) Draw to a pat hand
2) Bust

But the dealer has an extremely good chance of making 17+ by one of these methods. And if the dealer has 17+, and you stand, then you will definitely lose. Meanwhile, if you had managed to darw to 17+, then at least you have a decent shot of tieing or beating the dealer's hand.

I don't know the math that went into it, but another place you can see the breakdown of expected odds per hand is here:
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix9-6dh17r4.html

Sonny · Feb 23, 2007

cdc01 said:

Sure, but it only helps when the dealer busts! If you always stand on 12 (or any stiff) then you will never draw to a good hand. By drawing to a good hand you are often turning a losing hand into a winning hand. Sure you may bust pretty often, but the times that you draw to a winning hand will more than make up for it.

cdc01 said:

Because it gets you one step closer to a winning hand. In fact, you would stand on those hands against the dealer's 2-6 because in those cases he is more likely to bust. You would even stand with a 12 vs. 4-6 as well for the same reason. You just don't want to be standing on a 12 against every dealer's upcard.

cdc01 said:

That’s not true. What if you draw 3,6? Or 3,A,4? Or 2,2,3? You are only looking at one card draws. That will not give you accurate results. In order to have accurate statistics you must properly weight all possible outcomes, not just the single-card draws.

cdc01 said:

The dealer only busts about 30% of the time:

http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix2.html

You will be very disappointed every time you are holding a stiff hand and the dealer draws you out.

cdc01 said:

The links above will get you started, and much more info can be found in Peter Griffin’s “Theory of Blackjack”

-Sonny-

ihate17 · Feb 23, 2007

Theory of blackjack

The numbers you seek are in "Theory of Blackjack".
The other thing is you seem to be fixated on your hand and not paying enough attention to the dealers hand in the case of 12 vs 2.
Though, as you said only five cards (on a 1 card hit) will make a pat hand, only 4 of 13 cards will give the dealer a 2 card stiff of 12 and then again only 4 cards of 13 will bust the dealer. The dealer is more likely to have an Ace, 5,6,7,8, or 9 in the hole (six cards) which would make your staying on 12 a sizeable underdog to his 2.

The tables in theory of blackjack and I think the tables in the back of Professional Blackjack can give you some help here. You are looking for the method of play that will cost you the least since 12 vs 2 is an underdog, but standing in a non counting situation is a mistake because the dealer will make a hand about 70% of the time.

ihate17

NDN21 · Feb 24, 2007

Evaluate

Your technique and reasoning is flawed.

The never bust strategy only increases the house advantage.

12 is indeed one of these "non useful" hands you speak of. Both the 12 and 13,14,15,16 totals has to have the dealer bust in order to win. By having a 12 you already have one of these "non useful" hands.

Here's is how it helps you, straightforward with no sugarcoating. By drawing a card you may also draw to 17,18,19,20,21. That is how it helps you.

A player is trying to improve his hand to improve his odds of winning the wager. Hitting in that situation, against particular dealer up-cards and at certain counts, has better odds than standing. A player can't improve his hand if he doesn't draw. Hitting on a 12 also gives you the chance to draw to 17+. Do you understand that part?

You are right in that drawing on a 12 to get to 13,14,15,16 does not help you.

The goal is not to get a 13,14,15,16. Drawing to one of these is just a side effect.

Don't be so afraid of busting that you are scared to play.

zengrifter · Feb 24, 2007

cdc01 said:

hi

I am no expert, bu t i hav played blackjack many times at local casino

Basically I am aware that the only way to have an increased insight to what the next card may be is to count cards. However as 1.5 of the shoe is discarded, I wonder what values this has.

However I digress, My question is as follows:

Statistically, how do my odds change with regards to winning when I always decline to hit when I have over hard 12?

What about if i hit on soft 18, 19, 20 *dealer shows 3,4,5,6
What if i split 10s on dealer showing 3,4,5,6?

i am more concerned with the first scenario as if you have 12 , the odds of busting or of hitting a card that does not help are:

10 10 10 10 (10, J Q K) bust = 4 cards
cards not helping:
A 2 3 4 = 4 cards

8 over 13 cards possible gives you a 61% chance of busting or getting a non
helping card (is 16 better than 12? what difference does it make?)

if you hit on 13, 14, 15, etc, the odds further decrease for cards that are favorable

eg hit on 15 = leaves 7/13 cards to bust you and 21 card that does not help (61%)

please point me to a free simulator where i can try this out or if you ahve worked this out, i would like to know

thanks
JAMIE

Why would you presume to post this in ADVANCED STRATEGIES?? zg

mdlbj · Mar 2, 2007

Learn the basic strategy chart for the rules at the table you are playing. Also, learn how to count cards.

Cardcounter · Mar 6, 2007

I call your stragedy never bust.

If you play blackjack and never bust you will be playing at around a 5-6% disadvantage. I think that this assumes that you only hit your soft hands up to soft 16 hitting soft 17 is a big gain against any upcard and you use proper double stragedy.

Evaluate my technique

cdc01

New Member

Sonny

Well-Known Member

cdc01

New Member

cdc01

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EasyRhino

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Sonny

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ihate17

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NDN21

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zengrifter

Banned

mdlbj

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Cardcounter

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